Pattern January Joke

[Tarheel1]

In Chicago for work and currently under a flash flood warning.

Should get some snow if you’re still there tomorrow

 

[griteater]

This will potentially choke the La Niña and allow the MJO to more likely move into phase 8 correct?

Typical calculations of MJO RMM Plots are made up of 3 elements and their patterns in the tropics: 850mb wind anomalies, 200mb wind anomalies, and either OLR (cloudiness / convection) or Velocity Potential (upper-level divergence / convergence).

The 850mb wind anomalies on that Euro Wk loop from the linked X post (in yellow and red) show the westerly wind anomalies extending out east of the Dateline coming up after Jan 15. Below are 850mb wind anomaly composites for a few of the MJO phases (image from NOAA). You can ignore the blue and orange coloring - the wind vectors are showing the 850mb wind anomalies. The wind anomalies in that Euro loop match up most closely with Phase 7 below (westerly winds extending out east of the dateline into the central Pacific). Again, this is just one of the 3 components of the MJO RMM calculation. In terms of the MJO running out boldly into Phase 8, we will have to see how that goes in time, but Phase 7 during La Nina combined with the eastward moving warm pool should favor +TNH / -EPO type ridging as long as another factor isn't interfering with that signal

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Should get some snow if you’re still there tomorrow

Yeah local news said maybe a sloppy inch between Friday and Saturday.

 

[Ksnow33]

This ICON run ain't digging deep enough for next week's threat

 

[LukeBarrette]

This ICON run ain't digging deep enough for next week's threat

Yeah complete swing and a miss. Crazy the run to run differences

 

[NBAcentel]

Welp, when I say it’s just the icon, it happens universally across all models, sooo yeah

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s funny that it won’t snow here anymore but the GFS will print out blizzards from Chihuahua Mexico to Pecos Texas

 

[Mike_96]

AI GFS is oh so close!!

 

[trackersacker]

Welp, when I say it’s just the icon, it happens universally across all models, sooo yeah View attachment 181863

It is true. It’s such a unique model until it does something you don’t like and then suddenly it’s a trend on everything

 

[LukeBarrette]

Well that’s different.
AI GFS thinks it’s more of a northeast threat

 

[BIG FROSTY]

In Chicago for work and currently under a flash flood warning.

Go take a stroll Downtown and get some pictures. And post for us. You shouldn't have any problems. Plenty of cops up there. Oh, beautiful January night here, frigid 47 degrees.

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[griteater]

On the second wave, AI GFS moves all the wave energy into the Great Lakes vs into the base of the trough. That will never work

 

[LukeBarrette]

OP GFS looking much further east with shortwave

 

[Ksnow33]

GFS looks like the icon

 

[LukeBarrette]

New run

Old run
Way different

 

[Ksnow33]

Mountains get some NWFS

 

[trackersacker]

Here we go with the crappy overnight trends. Mitch just go back to sleep

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

On the second wave, AI GFS moves all the wave energy into the Great Lakes vs into the base of the trough. That will never work

View attachment 181868

Maybe it will help in the 50/50 blocking department for the next one

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro finishes off its 18z headed for glory. We be cooking by sunrise

 

[accu35]

Much colder run for the 15th. May help with the next one

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Left some cold dry air behind..maybe it won’t be in vain..but probably

 

[LukeBarrette]

It still really tries

 

[Ksnow33]

Brought down more cold air for sure

 

[griteater]

Didn’t work out on the first wave with the GFS, but it’s not way off, and it’s a nice look here that’s close to being a cold late bloomer

 

[accu35]

Colder air left for round two

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

oh lawd

 

[LukeBarrette]

Didn’t work out on the first wave with the GFS, but it’s not way off, and it’s a nice look here that’s close to being a cold late bloomer

View attachment 181874

Trend is clear that it’s trying to show a New England hit. AI GFS did it too

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

oh lawdView attachment 181875

Right down the ol' stove pipe

 

[LukeBarrette]

oh lawdView attachment 181875

Its going to get stuck again

 

[Tarheel1]

Maybe it will help in the 50/50 blocking department for the next one

This should do it!
This Nantucket’ Nunchuck Nailer!
Should set up a 50/50

 

[griteater]

2nd wave digging to far into the SW. SE ridging flexing. Brent getting pounded

 

[Ksnow33]

Looks like its going to amp too much for most

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Right down the ol' stove pipe

neutral tilt would prob work. Overall looks good
But a strong wave and we get ridged out front
Healthy looking winter storm though

 

[iGRXY]

CAD areas could get ice just from looking at the HP running in tandem

 

[accu35]

Much better then 18z so far.

 

[Ksnow33]

The arctic high is pressing down and doing work though

 

[Ksnow33]

Cold rain for Carolinas

 

[accu35]

this has a overrunning look to it?

 

[Ksnow33]

Leaves energy behind that is ejecting out. Race to see if the cold can beat down the SE ridge