Agree 1000% "but I don't know where anybody said Bastardi claims to know the weather 45 days out." That was my comment, not Bastardi's. Not that I know anything. lol Sorry if I made it sound like his comment!!! But If you mention his name in anyway on here, he gets trashed, so I guess in the end it doesn't matter.
What about, wherever a storm comes in on west coast, it exits on east coast. He use to reverberate a lot of what his dad,pioneers taught him from early satelite era. Hes the one I learned old EE Rule from watching. Ridge Bridge,Ridge over troubled waters, December likes to Remeber etc etc etc. To many to count rehash
What models or data are suggesting no more negative WPO? I get the idea of the south being flooded with warm air (the southern ridge we are seeing now) and there are almost always ways to flood the southern US with warm air. Most in this forum have seen no snow while we’ve had the -WPO so far. I get ideally we want a negative WPO and I agree, but to say our chances will diminish because the WPO will become positive right as we enter phase 8 seems pessimistic and possibly incorrect. Even with the -WPO the past month we’ve found other ways to avoid snow, and I don’t see it going away at least on the models through Feb.
Yeah it’s clearly heading that way. Coherent phase 7 MJO at the end of that loop, but headed towards phase 8 with subsidence entering the MC and rising heading towards the Americas
Oh I'm not bashing JB. I like him fine. I'm just saying, all the time you hear people getting encouraged or discouraged based on what someone with name recognition says. Not talking about you at all.
Pretty funny, he does give his ideas months in advance and generally turns out to be a decent forecast. Perfect? Absolutely not, but neither are others. Anyone can sit there and watch model run after model run and change the forecast and eventually get it right. He seems to do pretty well with hurricanes except this year, but everyone missed this year.
One thing I’ll always give JB credit for is completely nailing the January 1987 storm. Back in those days, Accuweather did the forecasting for WBT radio and WBTV in Charlotte. I remember hearing JB on the radio the afternoon before that storm while riding home from school with my mom. He was adamant that the CLT area was in for a significant snowstorm while local mets and the NWS was forecasting rain. He and Accuweather were correct of course
Uniclimate
No 50/50 low = nothing to stop WAA to surge north
No cold air before the system. It’s been warm
I wonder at what point will greater than half of setups that could traditionally bring significant southern snow just bring rain now.
My fav is +ENSO / Nino with heavy —AO / —NAO (2009-2010, 1935-1936)
Compliments of a scoured out cold source to our north. The seesaw is tipping in our direction, but there isn’t much cold to send down into the trough. We’ll eventually bring colder air back into the picture, but next week is gonna have to really wind up to pull in enough cold air for a wet snow event in our neck of the woods. Maybe doable, but still low probability for now.
That’s definitely true. I guess the deeper question is: does the 540 thickness line mean the same today as it did 50-75 years ago, in that more variables have to fall in place now for it to be the (relatively) true rain/snow changeover line because of how average 500 mb heights for, say 40° north, over North America during DJF have steadily risen overall since the 1960s for all of mid latitude CONUS. In other words, what used to be the upper air norm is not normal now.
December 1st 2019.
Could be setting up nicely with a developing CAD once the SE LP exits and the next shortwave dives in from the PAC NW. The 12th begins the transition to cold for a time.
It seems like everything that ever happens on the ICON that is any good always seems to happen at 192 hrs.
Yep. That's why I'm more interested in the period just beyond this. Although if it wound up strong enough, I suppose NC and Virginia could trend cold enough.
The proof is in the MSLP pudding. If you don’t see sprawling high pressure to the north and or northeast you can forget about it. Always looking for that high pressure dominated pattern to emerge. Then you’ve got something to make frozen precipitation with
Yup, that is one of the main Cold Rain keys to success.
Gives me 10 or so. No way it happens but it would be incredible.Brother who scores 13” from a clipper
@LukeBarrette can get 13” from a derechoBrother who scores 13” from a clipper
Should that happen it’s gotta be a snow record, no way a sole clipper could do that, right? Probably some enhancement somewhere along there.Brother who scores 13” from a clipper
chilllllll I have not had a 4+ inch snowstorm since 2022 I believe
That thing is a thin mint
Just a really good band it picked up
I agree, but the crazy thing is that the majority of this thing falls while sfc temps are around or above freezing with the backside only reaching upper 20s. The amount of moisture in there is absurd.
