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Pattern January Joke

61/46 here with a chance to run for the low 70s Wed&Fri, maybe Thu&Sat as well. Will depend on cloud cover/precip.

Did anyone on this board manage to tag 80 in their backyard over Christmas?
 
We about to solve problem #1 ( Cold ) hopefully.
But my gracious problem # 2 is locked in worse than shettley could ever draw up. Should or should we not not see qpf trend up with el-nino Genesis forming? Or do we have to wait till next fall to reap the rewards qpf wise?


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I like how the CMC magically farts this anomolous clipper out from the clouds for our NW flow brethren View attachment 181396
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Season 9 Lol GIF by The Office
 
After liking the GEFS +PNA trend yesterday through 18Z and posting about it, I’m equally disliking the -PNA trend since 18Z (this is as of early 1/18):

IMG_6812.gif

But this is still 12 days out. As I posted, I was expecting a nonlinear trend to continue in the longer +PNA direction. This isn’t what I expected as it is opposite, but there’s still time to resume the +PNA trend: (giving it a few more days)
 
GaWx said:
After liking the GEFS +PNA trend yesterday through 18Z and posting about it, I’m equally disliking the -PNA trend since 18Z (this is as of early 1/18):

View attachment 181405

But this is still 12 days out. As I posted, I was expecting a nonlinear trend to continue in the longer +PNA direction. This isn’t what I expected as it is opposite, but there’s still time to resume the +PNA trend: (giving it a few more days)
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I think one thing that the GFS suite struggles with is have a SE ridge bias, the Euro is more weaker and accurate with the SER in that regard.


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GaWx said:
I think it’s BAMwx having been colder than the models and now being forced to backtrack more than anything else. There’s no question in my mind that they had a colder January than model output has been suggesting.
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Its as low as its been since last fall
 

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jackendrickwx said:
I fully understand these maps aren't gospel and things will change, but I don't know that I have been impressed by a snow mean yet this winter. This is a pitiful display for this time of year.
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MLK weekend in the mountains might be fun.
 
CaryWx said:
I thought BAM always said the cold would be post 1/15.
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I’m not an X nor a Bam subscriber. So, I can’t see more than what this Tweet has in it. But I think you’re more or less right (maybe more like 1/12+).

Regardless, they’re obviously doing backtracking in this Tweet. And remember this image they released just last week, which they were using to emphasize the cold potential of phase 6 during -AAM (lower right map)? Just a reminder: my analysis of historical data showed their -6 to -7 F anomaly for that portion of the SE to be significantly too cold in the means.

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I’ll put it this way. Recent posts/You Tube videos of theirs have clearly been bullish for cold mid to late month and they’ve had a bullish (for E US cold) tone overall. I’ve watched all of their YouTube videos. Michael Clark, especially, has been bullish and has been quite emphatic about it.
 
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Even the now famously overexcitable AIFS ENS is nothing to look at.

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That said, I know just as well as the rest of y'all that even F168 (or closer!) snow mean maps can be decieving. Something could pop up between now and the end of this week. There's been plenty of posts showing why there's reason for optimism. The most encouraging thing to me as I've gotten back into looking at models post-holiday break is what a nice western ridge shows up on the ens. Reds and yellows up over Alaska on an ensemble mean like @KyloG shows, sounds good to me. Minor/moderate events can often appear at closer range than we are spending most of our time looking at right now.

But until the most exciting things to talk about on here aren't F288 H5 ens means and F312 AIGFS snows, it's hard to get worked up.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Even the now famously overexcitable AIFS ENS is nothing to look at.

View attachment 181415

That said, I know just as well as the rest of y'all that even F168 (or closer!) snow mean maps can be decieving. Something could pop up between now and the end of this week. There's been plenty of posts showing why there's reason for optimism. The most encouraging thing to me as I've gotten back into looking at models post-holiday break is what a nice western ridge shows up on the ens. Reds and yellows up over Alaska on an ensemble mean like @KyloG shows, sounds good to me. Minor/moderate events can often appear at closer range than we are spending most of our time looking at right now.

But until the most exciting things to talk about on here aren't F288 H5 ens means and F312 AIGFS snows, it's hard to get worked up.
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That snow down to the equator is impressive
 
trackersacker said:
People keep tweeting about the NAO going away and I’m really not worried about that. It just keeps correcting back every chance it gets. What we need right now is a lot of +PNA and -EPO
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I think there is one last chance to bring it back in feb but it's likely to at least trend back to neutral for a while
 
jackendrickwx said:
I fully understand these maps aren't gospel and things will change, but I don't know that I have been impressed by a snow mean yet this winter. This is a pitiful display for this time of year.
View attachment 181414
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I like to use the snow means on the ensembles as a rough barometer of the pattern as well. Hard to get excited about a potential modeled pattern unless they grow moderately. If they don't there's a big fly in the ointment somewhere.

Probably the SE ridge making it too warm IMO.
 
SnowNiner said:
I like to use the snow means on the ensembles as a rough barometer of the pattern as well. Hard to get excited about a potential modeled pattern unless they grow moderately. If they don't there's a big fly in the ointment somewhere.

Probably the SE ridge making it too warm IMO.
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You just want to see it beef up inside d10 once the smoothing starts to be less of a factor. You'd think over the next 5-6 days we will see progress if the 15th-22nd is to do something exciting
 
Monthly anomalies before the next several warm days:

KATL: +7.9
KFYY: +4.7
KFCC: +3.9
KAVL: +4
KGSP: +4.4
KCLT: +5
KRDU: -.2
KBHM: +4.4

From Charlotte west its a pretty consistent 4 to 5 degrees above average so far during this first week, and this first ten day stretch of January might be one of the warmest on record. The +7.9 for KATL is obviously bogus.
 
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