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Pattern January Joke

Rain Cold said:
Yes, but it shouldn't be, according to the GFS, yet it is, according to the GFS.
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The argument can be made that other things could be causing the jet to retract (MJO or other tropical forcing / or said tropical forcing in conjunction with the low frequency trop forcing signal - i.e. ENSO)...but anytime I've seen a +EAMT look like that on the models, the model throws out a jet extension over the following week, or like I stated, at a minimum, it keeps momentum maintained in the jet
 
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BIG FROSTY said:
I was going to post some things from JB, but every time I do, you get these same few on here that ALWAYS know more than JB. But they are always here telling the Pro Mets where they are wrong, etc... They really amaze me with their wealth of knowledge. :rolleyes:lol
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I have been listening to JB for around 40 years. Many get upset because he doesn't put snow in their backyard. He will tell you to listen to your locals however his job is to see it long range. Nobody has been more accurate than him on long range pattern recognition. Is he always right? No, but hits more than most. He is also good at hurricane prediction and generally does good. This year, everybody missed on hurricanes. Funny thing when he misses he will admit it. Some like to bash him only follow his tweets. I have purchased his site from accuweather to weatherbell as it helps us for our work both in winter months and non winter months. I know several state DOT follow him for planning ahead as well. One thing about him is he doesn't change everytime a model changed like many do. He does have on his site now where you can give your forecast and compare to his. I guess those who think he is horrible should try that. I am sure he will retire sometime and will need somebody to replace him. For the record he said alot LOOKS like 1985 so when temps don't get as cold as they did in 1985 doesn't mean he missed it. He even mentioned 2014 a week or so ago as did BAM and WXSOUTH.

When the models started showing the warm up that's coming he already mentioned that earlier in December, so some started cliff diving. Now there are others that sre seeing what he has been talking about so who knows maybe he will be right once again on pattern recognition. He never said we would get snow after snow. Did say this set up could produce though farther south. We shall see. BTW Happy New Years!!
 
POWERSTROKE said:
I have been listening to JB for around 40 years. Many get upset because he doesn't put snow in their backyard. He will tell you to listen to your locals however his job is to see it long range. Nobody has been more accurate than him on long range pattern recognition. Is he always right? No, but hits more than most. He is also good at hurricane prediction and generally does good. This year, everybody missed on hurricanes. Funny thing when he misses he will admit it. Some like to bash him only follow his tweets. I have purchased his site from accuweather to weatherbell as it helps us for our work both in winter months and non winter months. I know several state DOT follow him for planning ahead as well. One thing about him is he doesn't change everytime a model changed like many do. He does have on his site now where you can give your forecast and compare to his. I guess those who think he is horrible should try that. I am sure he will retire sometime and will need somebody to replace him. For the record he said alot LOOKS like 1985 so when temps don't get as cold as they did in 1985 doesn't mean he missed it. He even mentioned 2014 a week or so ago as did BAM and WXSOUTH.

When the models started showing the warm up that's coming he already mentioned that earlier in December, so some started cliff diving. Now there are others that sre seeing what he has been talking about so who knows maybe he will be right once again on pattern recognition. He never said we would get snow after snow. Did say this set up could produce though farther south. We shall see. BTW Happy New Years!!
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Is Wxsouth just a paid thing now?
 
NBAcentel said:
I will admit though, this is making me nervous, that Alaskan vortex/trough is become rather hard to remove this winter, GDPS/GFS wrecks our pattern with it View attachment 180845
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Yeah that AK low is trending stronger, and it feels like the stronger it gets, the harder the pattern has to work to flip to western ridging. We’ll see how it goes
 
The end of the 0z GFS looked better for us in the east but it seems that cold in Alaska wants to hang on. Wish we could get the trough in the east a little sharper.
 
jrips27 said:
Big changes late in the Euro. Alaska ridge going up. Not wall to wall cold by any means but there’s some shots of cold in the east.

Not showing it, but dumps some vodka cold out west at the end of the run
View attachment 180851
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Much better Euro run. Definitely can see the cold bleeding east with each run
 
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