Agreed, the models dove quick from glory to doom and gloom for those who don’t want heat waves in winter. It would be nice to know what happened to show the -NAO and ridging on the West Coast for days to an abrupt change to the opposite. Right or wrong w’ell get what we get!
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
MJO lock up is an issue also. It’s in the COD. Model guidance is everywhere.
Yeah, but horrible trend. Ridge trending off the coast and obviously some members now dropping a trough into the SW.
True but if the next three model runs flipped back do you get excited or have reserve? The 500 pattern has been drastically different over the past few runs based strictly off of duration from what I see.
Been a little bit of can kicking on the models but it always seems to take a little longer than we hoped to really shake up the pattern. A few days ago the EPS had -EPO on 9-10th......now it's 12-13th. But all the ensembles agree that at some point by mid-Jan we see EPO flip.
The red line is Jan 10th...
The red line is Jan 10th...
NBAcentel
Member
Seems like another reason we are seeing less -EPO is because the western ridge axis is trending further southeast to more of a classic +PNA look 
Delayed, not denied 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I could be wrong, but it looks like the GFS AI is correcting more toward some of the AI ensembles.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
Well that’s interesting, the AIGFS shows another +EAMT event which shifts the jet poleward mid Jan, would be no bueno 
Only we could shift from this Euro on 12/27 
To this in less than 5 days
To this in less than 5 days
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
+ mountain torque events flux momentum equatorward, while negative events flux it poleward.
That’s exactly what’s occurred with the EPS from 0Z yesterday to 0Z today. For the SE US, especially deep SE, that trade-off is typically a net benefit for those who want to
minimize the chance for a long torchy period fueled by a dominant SER.
I think I'm going back to the old school weather watching from my childhood. Thermometer, wind direction, and cloud type and obs from Texas.
More accurate than whatever supercomputer algorithm is spitting out these kinds of results.
From this to that in 24 hours, lol.
More accurate than whatever supercomputer algorithm is spitting out these kinds of results.
From this to that in 24 hours, lol.
As gross of a 5 day temperature anomaly as you can get for mid January
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,643
- Reaction score
- 5,667
It's not a "thaw" if we never "froze". It's just a really bad winter.
I’d disagree. It’s been cold. It just didn’t snow. Same crap I’ve been hearing on social
Media post. It hit 15° at my house in December
trackersacker
Member
More +PNA and less -EPO seems January 2022 ish. We definitely had some negative EPO but I don’t remember impressive Arctic cold with that. Very cold, but never really did the subzero stuff
NBAcentel
Member
Gonna be impossible to get all the teleconnections lined up..
Based on the average of the 8 Jans over the last 50 years with 2/3+ of days inside the circle (oddly enough I decided to research this only after Joe Bastardi mentioned this in several of his posts), I hope most days remain inside the circle.
In the SE US this is how Jan temps and wintry precip ended up:
1977: historic cold/RDU 2.1” plus multiple days of sleet and ZR/snow to S FL and Bahamas
1980: NN to slightly AN/RDU 2.2”
1981: BN to MBN/RDU 2.6”
1982: BN/original ATL 7” snowjam/RDU 6”
1994: BN
1996: NN to slightly BN/RDU 5.6”
2000: NN to slightly BN/RDU 25.8”/TWO major ZR ATL
2003: BN/RDU 3.5”
RDU averaged 6” of snow, 240% of normal!
Here’s the avg, which is significantly colder than that for Jans with <20 days inside the circle:
