CNCsnwfan1210
Member
that’s some pretty serious cold during the afternoon, I know it’s a ways out but wow that would be tough for FL standards. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Pattern January Joke
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that’s some pretty serious cold during the afternoon, I know it’s a ways out but wow that would be tough for FL standards. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
trackersacker
Member
I may be alone in this, but I’m still absolutely disgusted by the trend for next week. Second half of the month had better be good.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The way it looks now, we’ll probably do the exact opposite of December in January, just a bit above normal first part of the month and hopefully below normal on the back half.
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We just can’t keep dropping PNW fish troughs and expect anything but a fat ridge throughout the eastern US
Only the 2020s could have a 50/50 + height anom with a -Nao. Getting rid of this decade will be a treat
trackersacker
Member
Not really when you consider just how far below average they are gonna starting out
packfan98
Moderator
If we didn’t have the AI models, we would really be miserable. Maybe they’ve adapted and know what we want to see and make sure to give us some hope by the end of the runs???
That map here in the NC Piedmont would be highs in the low to mid 20s with full sunshinethat’s some pretty serious cold during the afternoon, I know it’s a ways out but wow that would be tough for FL standards.
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The short range CFS. We'll see!
trackersacker
Member
42° and rain this Saturday. Guys I’m really glad Mother Nature is finally starting to be creative. I was getting worried. 
256wx
Member
We’ve only got one shot, do not miss our chance to snow, the third week of January only comes once a season, yo!
Forevertothee
Member
Not that it matters this far out and you have to get the cold to get the glory, but I worry that's a very cold and dry situation.
Gotta throw a rhyme with “peak climo” in there
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, this is the most extreme run. On the bright side, with a cold push like this you can score with it coming in and going out between the cold/dry period.
AI GEFS rock steady
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I think we’re gucci and maybe sooner than we think. That GEFS AI is scoring pretty good too.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GEFS > EURO AI ENS > GEFS AI > EURO ENS (Valid Jan 15 12z). A Super-Ensemble blend would look pretty good right now
See, you’ll have bad runs like that when the GFS tries to drop a cutoff out of a trough 1,000 miles SW of Cabo San Lucas..next
If you change the colors and reverse just about everything on this map it’s a really good look. The best, even 
Here's where we end on 00z Euro
Yeah AIGFS drops a 50,000 nautical mile wide pacific blue blob that covers as an Aleutian low because it’s so damn big and we start to cook towards the end of the run. So we’ll take it as a small win tonight
trackersacker
Member
It’s probably gonna wobble back and forth a lot but hopefully this means little in the way of SE ridge.
A smidge wouldn’t suck if blocking collapses, but we want it pretty muted.
At the range we’re at, we really can’t ask for more than what we’re seeing.
Euro AI ensemble for this am shows one of the best runs it has had yet for the pattern upcoming. Nice evolution. The AI guidance continues to be more aggressive with this pattern. I think it's a pretty big under the radar battle right now. 
rburrel2
Member
Even though the 06z GFS was ugly in every way. The 06z GEFS made big shift towards the AI means with respect to the ridge/trough placement. Maybe we're finally rounding the corner and will start to see more favorable stuff on the 12z runs today.
Also want to add the the GFS/GEFS is still an awful model and basically equivalent to looking at the CFS. It should get almost 0 weight in forecasts.
Also want to add the the GFS/GEFS is still an awful model and basically equivalent to looking at the CFS. It should get almost 0 weight in forecasts.
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rburrel2
Member
Maybe, just maybe... this is the start of something. Hopefully 12z runs build on this.
I know people have said this, but the AI ens snow maps are trash man. Not trying to be a buzzkill. But even this shows a snow signal on oil rig 92 in the Gulf.
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Nothing but SE ridge for days on the globals...I guess that is the story of winter 2026.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Update from BAM!!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
IMO, next Saturday will be a gut check time. Made this post on X.
MichaelJ
Member
Looking at the teleconnections, to sum up their output in the average range
AO= pretty much a wash
EPO= mostly negative
NAO- negative to neutral
PNA- positive to neutral
WPO= Negative
Oh and Happy New Year everybody!
AO= pretty much a wash
EPO= mostly negative
NAO- negative to neutral
PNA- positive to neutral
WPO= Negative
Oh and Happy New Year everybody!
rburrel2
Member
It just includes ice as snow, still a signal.(I think anyways).
I’ll try this post again and this time with the correct PNA images
:The 4 Jans BAMwx listed all flipped from a mainly strong -PNA in Dec to a moderate or strong +PNA in Jan:
2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29
2012-13: -1.01 to +0.55
2013-14: -0.86 to +.0.97
2021-22: -2.56 to +1.01
I expect Dec of 2025’s PNA to calculate to ~-1.5 to -1.7. It obviously remains to be seen what the Jan of 2026 PNA will be. Hopefully the 0Z EPS trend is onto something regarding the PNA and hoping the 0Z GEFS’ continued -PNA is off:
EPS improving
GEFS still ugly
D-Ray
Member
23 this morning....great way to start the new year !!!!
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People are high on the good runs and wanting to cancel winter on these bad runs. Could the models be having issues with the energy flying around and maybe give it a week before diving? I get how things have been the past few years and it’s understandable but at the same time we are around two weeks into winter. I’m not saying it will get better but it’s still early!
packfan98
Moderator
I think this year the modeling may be off more than usual because there’s no strong signal from any of the telleconnections we use. Enso, mjo, and most of the rest are flat and not the main driver we’ve seen in previous years. I’m hoping a -NAO and +PNA can help. There’s been other hints in the pacific too that could benefit us. Unfortunately, it’s going to take a few weeks.