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Pattern January Joke

SD said:
so are we mad at the 12z Euro or something? Ive lost the plot
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More or less the Euro/AI had a cold shot around 1/12-1/13 and then another one later on. Details need to be refined as we get closer, but that’s what I got out of it..haven’t seen the EPS or AI ensemble.


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
More or less the Euro/AI had a cold shot around 1/12-1/13 and then another one later on. Details need to be refined as we get closer, but that’s what I got out of it..haven’t seen the EPS or AI ensemble.


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I mean, I could draw up better runs than the 12z OP Euro, sure—but holy cow, you’d think these runs were just printing endless SERs.
 
The EPS has above to much above for the US east of the Rockies for the entirety of its run past this weekend. The only solace is that it does reload Canadian cold at the end, fwiw.

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Wild Weather Monger said:
The EPS has above to much above for the US east of the Rockies for the entirety of its run past this weekend. The only solace is that it does reload Canadian cold at the end, fwiw.

View attachment 180894
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That is true. But it wasn't too many runs ago that it was showing a lot of cold. And it wasn't too many weeks ago it was showing warm in the long range that required a jacket when verification arrived. These models have been bouncing around in cycles showing good and bad outcomes. Every. Single. One of them.

The reality is, it has been cold and it has been warm. I don't see any convincing evidence to suggest that the models are more apt to be right when they're showing warm than they are when they're showing cold. If you want to suggest that climate change compels us to lean in the direction of warm, ok, that's a fair point. But you (and I'm not saying you specifically) can't convince me that the rest of the winter is shot, that February is auto-toast, and that we're going to go through another winter with no snow. Other than feelings, I don't see any solid evidence for that.

Every single person that has posted on this forum that has made a forecast (and I don't mean a winter forecast) or a "suggestion" about an upcoming period and every single person who has been quoted here from other sources, like X, doing the same has already been wrong more than once. So, just because someone has changed their cold forecast to warm is irrelevant, at least to me. The weather has been variable. It is likely to continue to be. And models will continue to waffle in the long range. We just don't have the computing skill to be accurate that far out in time, at least not yet.

We're fine.
 
Rain Cold said:
That is true. But it wasn't too many runs ago that it was showing a lot of cold. And it wasn't too many weeks ago it was showing warm in the long range that required a jacket when verification arrived. These models have been bouncing around in cycles showing good and bad outcomes. Every. Single. One of them.

The reality is, it has been cold and it has been warm. I don't see any convincing evidence to suggest that the models are more apt to be right when they're showing warm than they are when they're showing cold. If you want to suggest that climate change compels us to lean in the direction of warm, ok, that's a fair point. But you (and I'm not saying you specifically) can't convince me that the rest of the winter is shot, that February is auto-toast, and that we're going to go through another winter with no snow. Other than feelings, I don't see any solid evidence for that.

Every single person that has posted on this forum that has made a forecast (and I don't mean a winter forecast) or a "suggestion" about an upcoming period and every single person who has been quoted here from other sources, like X, doing the same has already been wrong more than once. So, just because someone has changed their cold forecast to warm is irrelevant, at least to me. The weather has been variable. It is likely to continue to be. And models will continue to waffle in the long range. We just don't have the computing skill to be accurate that far out in time, at least not yet.

We're fine.
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One thing this winter and last have had is actual pattern evolution unlike pretty much all of winter 2020 until autumn of 2024. It was awful to just see patterns stuck for so long. It lead to a repeating cycle of drought and flood for too many of us. Some folks may like it or not but at least what we have now is a return to something "more" normal.
 
Rain Cold said:
That is true. But it wasn't too many runs ago that it was showing a lot of cold. And it wasn't too many weeks ago it was showing warm in the long range that required a jacket when verification arrived. These models have been bouncing around in cycles showing good and bad outcomes. Every. Single. One of them.

The reality is, it has been cold and it has been warm. I don't see any convincing evidence to suggest that the models are more apt to be right when they're showing warm than they are when they're showing cold. If you want to suggest that climate change compels us to lean in the direction of warm, ok, that's a fair point. But you (and I'm not saying you specifically) can't convince me that the rest of the winter is shot, that February is auto-toast, and that we're going to go through another winter with no snow. Other than feelings, I don't see any solid evidence for that.

Every single person that has posted on this forum that has made a forecast (and I don't mean a winter forecast) or a "suggestion" about an upcoming period and every single person who has been quoted here from other sources, like X, doing the same has already been wrong more than once. So, just because someone has changed their cold forecast to warm is irrelevant, at least to me. The weather has been variable. It is likely to continue to be. And models will continue to waffle in the long range. We just don't have the computing skill to be accurate that far out in time, at least not yet.

We're fine.
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I suppose the thing that bothers most is that unlike much of December, soon the pattern will flood the northern US and much of Canada with Pacific air along with Chinook for the whole of N. America. The longer we wait to pop a strong PNA in this new pattern and establis cross polar flow, the shorter the window becomes. Particularly for us deep south weenies.
 
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