Cold lobe over Ak about to get kicked into NOAM, what a terrible look
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I mean, I could draw up better runs than the 12z OP Euro, sure—but holy cow, you’d think these runs were just printing endless SERs.
Yep!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The EPS has above to much above for the US east of the Rockies for the entirety of its run past this weekend. The only solace is that it does reload Canadian cold at the end, fwiw.
That is true. But it wasn't too many runs ago that it was showing a lot of cold. And it wasn't too many weeks ago it was showing warm in the long range that required a jacket when verification arrived. These models have been bouncing around in cycles showing good and bad outcomes. Every. Single. One of them.
The reality is, it has been cold and it has been warm. I don't see any convincing evidence to suggest that the models are more apt to be right when they're showing warm than they are when they're showing cold. If you want to suggest that climate change compels us to lean in the direction of warm, ok, that's a fair point. But you (and I'm not saying you specifically) can't convince me that the rest of the winter is shot, that February is auto-toast, and that we're going to go through another winter with no snow. Other than feelings, I don't see any solid evidence for that.
Every single person that has posted on this forum that has made a forecast (and I don't mean a winter forecast) or a "suggestion" about an upcoming period and every single person who has been quoted here from other sources, like X, doing the same has already been wrong more than once. So, just because someone has changed their cold forecast to warm is irrelevant, at least to me. The weather has been variable. It is likely to continue to be. And models will continue to waffle in the long range. We just don't have the computing skill to be accurate that far out in time, at least not yet.
We're fine.
One thing this winter and last have had is actual pattern evolution unlike pretty much all of winter 2020 until autumn of 2024. It was awful to just see patterns stuck for so long. It lead to a repeating cycle of drought and flood for too many of us. Some folks may like it or not but at least what we have now is a return to something "more" normal.
I suppose the thing that bothers most is that unlike much of December, soon the pattern will flood the northern US and much of Canada with Pacific air along with Chinook for the whole of N. America. The longer we wait to pop a strong PNA in this new pattern and establis cross polar flow, the shorter the window becomes. Particularly for us deep south weenies.
Well that's... Different I guess.
I think the eps is one of those times where the mean gets best by the outliers when the pattern lacks a good cold source so we get AN anoms but BN heights. That said the trough dropping out west late kind of sucked
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah there’s some good storms and some bad times in there but overall it’s not quite as bad as your usual Nina February, in large part because the Warm Pool is eastward shifted some. This helps suppress the SE ridge to some degree, tho it’s obviously still there in the means.
Iirc, all 5 of these Februarys produced at least one minor winter storm in central NC
Couple look ahead thoughts...
1. I was picking on the GFS last night in terms of how it was handling the jet...but in looking at the model runs today, the EAMT signal is kind of meh, not heavy +EAMT or -EAMT. Having some stout +EAMT episodes would be beneficial for us.
2. Some have made comparisons to 2014, and there's certainly some reason for that when looking at the tropical forcing. Here for Jan 15-30 in 2014, the -VP uplift signal was locked in between 120E and 180 (Dateline)
Most modeling is moving to the same type forcing for the 2nd half of Jan. Here is today's Euro Wk which has this signal from Jan 11 to Feb 16
Here is the GEFS out to Jan 19
So, I think we have to first see if those tropical forcing forecasts verify...and if yes, do we get the W Pac to +TNH / -EPO connection? There is reason to believe that can help us in time...we'll see.
Last edited:
GFS (not the GEFS) keeps the tropical forcing in the Indian Ocean and MC. That goes against what most modeling is showing, and that could be at least some rationale for it lacking any level of coherent western ridging
Euro AI run
packfan98
Moderator
Looks great! Unfortunately it looks like we are losing the AI GEFS this run. Hopefully I’m wrong.
I mean model guidance is freakin everywhere. Idk if anyone has truly stopped to think about it. The rug pull with the storm system in that 7th-10th range to a near torch. The post Christmas Winter storm trend from what was supposed to be an above average temperature period for the Northeast. The constant adjustments to cold in November & December in the medium range.
I would be great if we could have a Winter storm pop up on us in the medium range at some point.
I would be great if we could have a Winter storm pop up on us in the medium range at some point.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah there’s some questions as to details going forward.
In a general sense tho, to me it’s more of a matter of when those -VP200a forecasts verify not if, especially when the warmest mean SSTs on the entire planet are sitting around 160E in the equatorial Pacific. MJO or not, convection will want to keep coming back there over and over again the next few months.
smast16
Member
Long term asides, the rain forecast has dropped significantly as well. I know most are looking for cold, but we need to find a moisture source as well at this point.
