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Pattern January Joke

I may be off base but I remember a big GFS bias in years past was to leave those cutoff lows stranded in the eastern pacific? Could this be flaw in the operational model that’s essentially holding the pattern change hostage resulting in that big Conus death ridge and not allowing a true pattern progression? I know we have ensembles for that yada yada but just a thought
 
I may be off base but I remember a big GFS bias in years past was to leave those cutoff lows stranded in the eastern pacific? Could this be flaw in the operational model that’s essentially holding the pattern change hostage resulting in that big Conus death ridge and not allowing a true pattern progression? I know we have ensembles for that yada yada but just a thought
The OP GFS has been doing that all late fall and early winter. It has been retrograding lows from BC down the coast to off Southern Cal. The entire remainder of runs after that are usually off the rails. That's why it's been verifying terribly wrong in the Pac NW, it's been majorly overdoing cold there.
 
It's probably wrong but possible knowing our luck. That ridge is still kinda near the Aleutians and not poleward enough. Natural reaction downstream is a deep trough on the west coast and pumps a ridge in the east regardless of the west based NAO. But the -NAO is the more dominant feature verbatim so you'd think the low over Hudson Bay would be the more dominant low instead of the one dropped down the west coast. But lately I've learned never to underestimate the SE ability to torch. If its possible we'll figure a way to do it
 
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