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Pattern January Joke

Rain Cold said:
Thank you. That's along the lines of what I assumed. There's been a big move to probability forecasting, using all of these various ensemble suites and their products. I think there is some value in this over short time frames and even value in longer time frames when it comes to larger scale variables.

But a 2 week snowfall probability map seems pointless to me, if you're making an actual forecast.

The industry as a whole has become very model-reliant, and leaning too heavily on probability forecasting isn't a lot better IMO, even though it might "sound" better.

Anyway, thank you.
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Funny enough WRAL/Fish were trailblazers in showing probability and "showing the science". They did a lot of creative stuff with the graphics software they had at the time.

I hear you with the model reliance. I think a few things explain it:

1. TV mets are just totally overwhelmed via attrition of forecasting time. A typical TV met shift means radio hits, promos, podcasts, station ambassador, social media (which has expanded past quick tweets and could mean making a tik tok). Oh... and don't forget to slap a forecast together, produce a show and get out there on live TV. It's more efficient to have a lot of premade model graphics to fill space, especially when the forecast is relatively benign. The sum of these parts means that mets don't have the bandwidth to hand draw a "could it snow" map. If they do, it will be boring if it's realistic and won't gain much traction.

That is the noble explanation. The sleazeball explanation is what I would do during my cup of coffee in the industry, which is watch a stream of NFL Redzone from a clandestine source for a while before realizing ahh I go on air in an hour I should probably throw something together (I did not have the above responsibilities during the weekend). If you have the graphics pre-made you just plug in the latest model run.

2. The public wants this. It's not 2010 anymore... the public knows what the GFS and the Euro are. And they want to know what they say. And if AMS Certified John G Met won't show their data, Peter J Public would be happy to oblige instead, with a clown map of course. I think most TV mets would rather not speculate about long term patterns and teleconnections. Unless you are reading journals for breakfast like Webb and some other folks here, it's just not their wheelhouse. But they have to get ahead of the curve.

I know this is totally off topic from watching the -NAO pissing its pants I forgot I typed this all out earlier.
 
Ross said:
Funny enough WRAL/Fish were trailblazers in showing probability and "showing the science". They did a lot of creative stuff with the graphics software they had at the time.

I hear you with the model reliance. I think a few things explain it:

1. TV mets are just totally overwhelmed via attrition of forecasting time. A typical TV met shift means radio hits, promos, podcasts, station ambassador, social media (which has expanded past quick tweets and could mean making a tik tok). Oh... and don't forget to slap a forecast together, produce a show and get out there on live TV. It's more efficient to have a lot of premade model graphics to fill space, especially when the forecast is relatively benign. The sum of these parts means that mets don't have the bandwidth to hand draw a "could it snow" map. If they do, it will be boring if it's realistic and won't gain much traction.

That is the noble explanation. The sleazeball explanation is what I would do during my cup of coffee in the industry, which is watch a stream of NFL Redzone from a clandestine source for a while before realizing ahh I go on air in an hour I should probably throw something together (I did not have the above responsibilities during the weekend). If you have the graphics pre-made you just plug in the latest model run.

2. The public wants this. It's not 2010 anymore... the public knows what the GFS and the Euro are. And they want to know what they say. And if AMS Certified John G Met won't show their data, Peter J Public would be happy to oblige instead, with a clown map of course. I think most TV mets would rather not speculate about long term patterns and teleconnections. Unless you are reading journals for breakfast like Webb and some other folks here, it's just not their wheelhouse. But they have to get ahead of the curve.

I know this is totally off topic from watching the -NAO pissing its pants I forgot I typed this all out earlier.
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Lol

This is really good, and I think accurately reflects the modern era. Personally, I don't think it is for the better. But then again, I don't think a lot of what is going on in our culture is for the better, when I comes to things like attention span, drama, social media, getting clicks, etc. One day, the pendulum will swing back and people will crave the best (of whatever) again...not the most dramatic or best looking.

I interned with Fishel in the 90s. The team at RAL was amazing. It wasn't about probabilities back then, as a lot of that data wasnt as widely available. He and the team put a lot of effort into (they would spend hours) the forecast and analyze it to death when they got it wrong.

But as you said, the world is a lot different now.
 
NBAcentel said:
Looks like a quicker progression to a western ridge is also occuring on the EPS View attachment 180569
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Cold drop. GEFS & GEPS unloads. Just gotta work the cold East. Mentioned a couple times my concerns with unloading cold to far West.. plenty time to tweek that though. Regardless, end of ensemble data showing that idea of a lot of cold dropping mid month onward.
 
whatalife said:
Let’s see where we are at the middle of the January.
View attachment 180572View attachment 180573View attachment 180571
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AI GEFS is farthest east with the Pac Jet extension. I don't think we have fear here with overextending the exit region of the jet and things going zonal. I would have more concern with too little extension and the ridge/trough being too far west as Mitch has mentioned (or quickly retrograding west). Again, the advantage of January is the longer wavelengths and wider ridge/trough patterns, so you don't have to be as perfect with placement to move some cold air in.

But it's anyone's guess on how much the jet extends and holds the extension. Asia looks better than it did in December for sure as it's not loaded with low pressure, and there is a bit more momentum being pumped into the jet. There are various solutions on the tropical forcing, but it seems to want to work thru the Maritime Continent and into the W Pac. If it hangs too far west there, that would favor a bit more west ridge/trough placement.

Dec 30 AIGEFS.png
 
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