The OP GFS has been doing that all late fall and early winter. It has been retrograding lows from BC down the coast to off Southern Cal. The entire remainder of runs after that are usually off the rails. That's why it's been verifying terribly wrong in the Pac NW, it's been majorly overdoing cold there.
It's probably wrong but possible knowing our luck. That ridge is still kinda near the Aleutians and not poleward enough. Natural reaction downstream is a deep trough on the west coast and pumps a ridge in the east regardless of the west based NAO. But the -NAO is the more dominant feature verbatim so you'd think the low over Hudson Bay would be the more dominant low instead of the one dropped down the west coast. But lately I've learned never to underestimate the SE ability to torch. If its possible we'll figure a way to do it
Ehh looks West with the drop.. which is a very slow growing concern in my opinion.
Yeah I’m concerned also
Up early this AM. And yes, I'm also growing concerned that the PNA ridge axis is trending too far west. If so, then we're kicking the can to the post January 20th period, which would leave a month of realistic chances for deep south snowfall.
Yep. That dang clock is starting to tick already. We need a reversal of the models fast to salvage the middle of January. Which could happen the way the swings have been lately. So frustrating.
I would hope not. That would be foolish. You can’t dramatically flip like that one day to the next. I really like BAM so I hope that’s not true.
I agree here. At worst we’d have to deal with a little WAR if that west coast ridge axis sets up too far west which is always a kick in the nuts but that’s not always bad for WNC or our mid south guys. We can miller B that way. What we definitely can’t have is one that sets up east toward the middle of the country. Unless you like fish storms
Fish and Clips
Yeah feels like we got some pre-pattern cold feet going on in here
Even the ensemble that has been the farthest west (GEFS) looks classic here at the end for -EPO / +TNH / Alaskan Ridge Regime type cold with Aleutian Low and high pressure lined up from Mongolia to Kansas
Yeah feels like we got some pre-pattern cold feet going on in here
Now if we start seeing the Pac Jet weaken / not extend as much, that would change things for sure. And getting precip to line up with the cold is a whole different challenge
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Let’s also remember that an active STJ helps to keep the SER at bay as well.
Ha if we get 2 weeks of decent cold I’d consider that a win really. Who knows on FebI have to admit I'm very confused by the mjo this year. I think forcing means alot for our sensible weather but I'm so confused by how it works. The mjo convection signal has been somewhat dead in the COD for some time now, but we're looking at "mini" rossby waves that are causing convection signals that are making significant impacts on sensible weather? If it's dead why is it making such a difference in the tangible weather?
I do note too he gives us 2 weeks of winter left 1/15 to 1/28.
