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Pattern January Joke

I may be off base but I remember a big GFS bias in years past was to leave those cutoff lows stranded in the eastern pacific? Could this be flaw in the operational model that’s essentially holding the pattern change hostage resulting in that big Conus death ridge and not allowing a true pattern progression? I know we have ensembles for that yada yada but just a thought
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I may be off base but I remember a big GFS bias in years past was to leave those cutoff lows stranded in the eastern pacific? Could this be flaw in the operational model that’s essentially holding the pattern change hostage resulting in that big Conus death ridge and not allowing a true pattern progression? I know we have ensembles for that yada yada but just a thought
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The OP GFS has been doing that all late fall and early winter. It has been retrograding lows from BC down the coast to off Southern Cal. The entire remainder of runs after that are usually off the rails. That's why it's been verifying terribly wrong in the Pac NW, it's been majorly overdoing cold there.
 
jeremyt said:
View attachment 180651
How does this happen?
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It's probably wrong but possible knowing our luck. That ridge is still kinda near the Aleutians and not poleward enough. Natural reaction downstream is a deep trough on the west coast and pumps a ridge in the east regardless of the west based NAO. But the -NAO is the more dominant feature verbatim so you'd think the low over Hudson Bay would be the more dominant low instead of the one dropped down the west coast. But lately I've learned never to underestimate the SE ability to torch. If its possible we'll figure a way to do it
 
Watch out for potential major Arctic plunges week of 1/19-26: this was released on Tue 12/30.

Exclusive Weather Updates from Vaisala/X Weather & The Weather Co.

Brad Harvey, senior operational meteorologist at Vaisala, says that the forecast for the 6-to 10-day period features much-above-normal temperatures from the West to Texas. Highs are forecast to reach the 50s in Denver, 60s-70s in Dallas, and 70s in Houston. The Midwest and East are forecast to be drier than normal thanks to rounds of high pressure migrating southward from Canada. The forecast is near normal for temperatures in the Upper Midwest and below normal in the East. Risks are mixed for the Upper Midwest, where our forecast takes the middle ground between the warmer GFS and colder ECMWF solutions. Meanwhile, warmer risks in the Rockies are associated with downslope flow, while the Great Basin could be colder under high pressure. The models have lacked consistency in both the 6-to 10-day and 11-to 15-day periods. “The GFS EN projects a –PNA pattern, while ECMWF trends toward a +PNA. Neither of these solutions are given higher favorability, with our forecast featuring a round of above normal temperatures in the Eastern Half and belows emerging late in the Midwest.” For more information, go to https://www.xweather.com/weatherdesk.

Mickey Shuman, a senior meteorologist with The Weather Company, tells us that for most of next week, the Pacific pattern will reverse, helping to drive mild Pacific air into much of western and interior North America. However, a west-based -NAO block will impede the advancement of the mild air into the East. By the 11-to 15-day period, mild Pacific and maritime Atlantic air will overspread the entirety of Canada, essentially shutting down the risk of any major cold air intrusions, such that most of the CONUS moderates and ends up on the warmer side of normal, supporting a prolonged stretch of lower-than-normal GWHDDs. That being said, an emerging +PNA signal also suggests that there won’t be a major or sustainable warm-up and that some seasonably cold air attempts to expand south and east later in the period. The bigger story is the potential pattern change for the middle to end of the month, which could lead to noteworthy cold Arctic blasts over the eastern two-thirds centered on the week of the 19-26th. For more information, go to https://www.weathercompany.com/.
 
I don't think anyone knows even out here the models aren't that impressive on the snow front despite what the 0z GFS showed at 300 hours (the 6z basically has no snow again haha)

The EPS is a bunch of very light events at most which considering how dry it's been is my concern here(and it still has some showing nothing)
 
Mitch West said:
Ehh looks West with the drop.. which is a very slow growing concern in my opinion.

Btw, not even a page of post? Ooof haven’t even looked at models yet.
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Up early this AM. And yes, I'm also growing concerned that the PNA ridge axis is trending too far west. If so, then we're kicking the can to the post January 20th period, which would leave a month of realistic chances for deep south snowfall.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Up early this AM. And yes, I'm also growing concerned that the PNA ridge axis is trending too far west. If so, then we're kicking the can to the post January 20th period, which would leave a month of realistic chances for deep south snowfall.
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Yep. That dang clock is starting to tick already. We need a reversal of the models fast to salvage the middle of January. Which could happen the way the swings have been lately. So frustrating.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I haven’t seen the video or anything, but had a friend send me a text this morning said BamWx was rethinking their forecast. Like I said, I haven’t heard any of the details.


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I would hope not. That would be foolish. You can’t dramatically flip like that one day to the next. I really like BAM so I hope that’s not true.
 
Mitch West said:
I would hope not. That would be foolish. You can’t dramatically flip like that one day to the next. I really like BAM so I hope that’s not true.
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I agree, like I said, I haven’t seen anything. That’s what he sent me. Hopefully, he just jerking me around this morning, but he’s usually not that way.


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7e7590feba2f692c1bb324add969ea64.gif

Overall not a bad evolution of the H5 pattern heading into mid January. Horseshoe style ridge develops over North America aided by the trough over the HI islands and some -EPO to the west, -NAO blocking over Greenland and Atlantic ridge to the east which begins to shift east at the tail end of the run. I think there’s a bias will holding on to the Atlantic ridge too long. Trough begins to develop over central Canada/northern US.


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