Well ensembles are agreeing to an extent, the pattern change is coming. Bank on it. They likely aren't strong enough with the Eastern trough yet. Still trying to bury it half-way in the West.
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Pattern January Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
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I hope you get better soon Shawn. Sorry to see you are sick dude. I don't know about the shorts though! LOL Hoping the models are latching onto something with a colder and more active storm pattern entering into Feb. Climo wise, that'd be our time frame down here.Shawn said:
DLI4SCwx said:
I don't understand why Feb is better climo wise than Jan ?
SoutheastRidge said:
Despite Feb. being a little warmer than Jan., there is a little further south average storm track in Feb. I think. I believe this may be due to 500 mb being slightly colder then though I'm not sure. I do know as per my earlier post that a good number of deep south and SE coastal sig snows were during the 2/8-2/28 timeframe. OTOH, ATL's longterm snowfall has been higher in Jan than in Feb. But, interestingly enough, Feb. was the biggest snow month in ATL back in the 1880's-1900 period when Feb. averaged a good bit colder for whatever reason.
olhausen
Member
I don't understand why Feb is better climo wise than Jan ?
For whatever reason the last decade has brought many February and even early march snow storms to the south.
For whatever reason the last decade has brought many February and even early march snow storms to the south.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Shawn said:
I agree that the models are looking better, but it needs to be consistent and get inside 256 hours to have a better idea I feel. Usually if the GFS can hold a pattern change from the long range into the medium-long range, it can reel it in.
Both OP GFS, GEFS and EPS all show a broad based trough coming out of the west with a deep fetch from the Caribbean. When you get a major pattern change, you normally get a good storm. Watch for a severe weather outbreak in the 192-226hr time frame.
Flo
Member
We are taking our daughter to GWL Feb 5th weekend for her bday. I would love some snow then. Would be her best bday ever.
Stormlover
Member
ForsythSnow said:
Why 256? 10 days plus 16 hours? :huh:
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
First of all, I am so glad I found you guys again! You are a pleasure to read, and loaded with weather wisdom....Just wondering how y'all see the timing of the pattern change.
It seems that the models are usually one or two systems ahead of a pattern change (especially to colder) , I know the 23rd - 25th of Jan seems like the target for now, and it is a long way off, do you guys think it might actually wind up occurring the last of jan. to the first of Feb for the South east?
It seems that the models are usually one or two systems ahead of a pattern change (especially to colder) , I know the 23rd - 25th of Jan seems like the target for now, and it is a long way off, do you guys think it might actually wind up occurring the last of jan. to the first of Feb for the South east?
Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.Lets get the new server up and we will get back to you on it.
If the big news is a daily web-cam diary of coreytucker, count me in!
Notice the CAD areas warm up will be tempered significantly this weekend and some of us up near the Va border going to struggle to get out of the 30's Saturday especially if we get some rain with it. That's a fairly strong HP to the north and I see models show upper 20's dp's pushing as far south as SC/NC border......
Storm5
Member
it's impossible to describe this tweet
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Storm5
Member
hahah omgd that would be epicSASQUATCH said:Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
If the big news is a daily web-cam diary of coreytucker, count me in!
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Flurry
Member
Storm5 said:it's impossible to describe this tweet
Mr. Meteorlogical Muscle does have a way with words doesn't he??? :sick:
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Storm5 said:it's impossible to describe this tweet
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Same here. I don't know if rabid dogs actually eat.
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:it's impossible to describe this tweet
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Now that's interesting! SMH!
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Storm5
Member
agree with this 100 percent. wouldn't a severe weather event actuallyArcc said:
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The whole pattern from about 168-240 is a cluster, should be a fun ride though
TOR-CON-10
Member
Dr. Greg Forbes announced today he was retiring from the weather channel full-time. He will still do occassional work there. He was about the only decent thing about twc. Long live the TOR-CON.
dsaur
Member
Shawn said:NorthGAWinterWx said:Sounds very exciting, can't wait for the new fast server. We won't have to worry about the server failing on us anymore. I'll help out on whatever this new thing will be. Can't wait to find out of what it is.Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
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In actuality this all should start to unfold in less than 2 weeks. We will be working with the server this weekend. The amazing parts are very close.
Well, I know I get all giddy when a ULL starts to show up with snow and sleet in old Mexico What could possibly go wrong with that set up? The board must be purring like a kitten, when the snow potential goes from the Baha all the way to Columbia and beyond...so please be prepared! Surely the new Goofy couldn't be wrong about sleet in Mexico, lol, and the next logical step would be sleet in TonyTown.
whatalife
Moderator
dsaur said:Shawn said:NorthGAWinterWx said:
In actuality this all should start to unfold in less than 2 weeks. We will be working with the server this weekend. The amazing parts are very close.
Well, I know I get all giddy when a ULL starts to show up with snow and sleet in old Mexico What could possibly go wrong with that set up? The board must be purring like a kitten, when the snow potential goes from the Baha all the way to Columbia and beyond...so please be prepared! Surely the new Goofy couldn't be wrong about sleet in Mexico, lol, and the next logical step would be sleet in TonyTown.
HAHA!
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dsaur
Member
What? It could happen, lol. ULL's are the crazywhatalife said:dsaur said:Shawn said:In actuality this all should start to unfold in less than 2 weeks. We will be working with the server this weekend. The amazing parts are very close.
Well, I know I get all giddy when a ULL starts to show up with snow and sleet in old Mexico What could possibly go wrong with that set up? The board must be purring like a kitten, when the snow potential goes from the Baha all the way to Columbia and beyond...so please be prepared! Surely the new Goofy couldn't be wrong about sleet in Mexico, lol, and the next logical step would be sleet in TonyTown.
HAHA!
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I love me a good cut off Ull...they are the clown cars of weather...never know where they'll go, or what they'll do, lol. I think Shawn and the board need to be prepared!! I know I'll be watching with eagle eyes T
dsaur
Member
You do know that 70.8 on Jan 12 is like finger nails on a chalk board, right? Like bleach soaked socks? Like fire ants on honey covered skin?? So something, Dr. Abacus!!! Save us from this plight!!GaWx said:
whatalife
Moderator
GaWx said:
And the weeklies will be a dumpster fire (jk).
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12z GFS continues the signal around 200hrs. If that verifies expect several rounds of severe weather.
Arcc said:
Agreed, I am looking at the one around 156 hours to kick it off
VegasEagle
Member
SASQUATCH said:Awesome!Shawn said:Models aren't looking too bad from a long-range ensemble perspective.
About our big things coming up...
- For one, I can already say we will be moving to a very very fast server soon. In other words, no more lagging problems or website going down during events!
In even bigger news, we have some really special things up our sleeves that will make people say "really? how?". We don't want to announce that quite yet. But we have confirmation and it's going to be quite awesome & unique! We may need your help with it actually.
If the big news is a daily web-cam diary of coreytucker, count me in!
ATLwxfan
Member
It's amazing outside! How can you not enjoy this? My only problem is that I may have weeds to pull if we don't cool down at the end of the month.
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SnowisTheBest32
Member
ATLwxfan said:
EASY answer because it's winter. we have enough days like this from March-late October early november
I remember in 2012, i considered cutting grass in February. But i told myself that i would never cut grass in February. So i waited until about March 2nd. I had never cut grass before March 20-21 before that year. My tradition is to start cutting grass the first day of spring every year.
ATLwxfan
Member
SnowisTheBest32 said:
I get it. But last summer was brutally hot so we didn't get enough of these milder days a spring quickly went to summer.
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Last summer was so miserable and never ending ! 2016 in general was probably the warmest year I can ever remember.ATLwxfan said:
BHS1975
Member
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeap didn't cool down much at night. That's what 400+ Ppm CO2 gets you. Plants like the supercharged atmosphere but humans don't fare to well.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Does the predicted fading of La Niña have anything to do with the alleged "pattern shift" coming weeks from now?
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