NorthGaWinter4
Member
Nam is a really good track but it looks to be too warm again outside the mountains
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
-
- Tags
- winter
Let’s see what the backside stuff does, honestly looking at soundings it was much closer to a front end thump
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Yeah you’re right. Snow is probably mixing in for north ga on the backside stuff. It’s def colder than 00z imo
Looks much better ! Probably gonna progress East 
Much better run, although the warm nose is still a issue 
Dunno if this picks up over the next day or so but the NAM shows this
Nam also has some 32/31 degree freezing rain 
Honestly I’m okay with that .. we got the precip back big time and now we wait for some good trends ... oh shoot I just checked as I was typing this and the end of the NAM is actually juicy
Lol more snow was breaking out from another piece of energy 
End of NAM for what it’s worth .. precip breaking out
Pancake sized flakes, flying saucers, and cold rain 
Those mid level lapse rates are impressive, along with some weak MUcape, wherever this thing dumps it’s gonna be heavy 
The nam looks very close to what the LR HRRR had. Soundings in the upstate were very close to having hard sleet/snow due to the warm nose.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Kind of surprsing. Steve Udelson and Eric Thomas are going with pretty high totals north of 85. 4 inches
6z RDPS
6z GFS is better for central NC
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 532
- Reaction score
- 1,466
GSP
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lots of warm advection on the 3km NAM east of the mtns.
Ew
Ew
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hard for me to see anything more than a trace-dusting of snow & sleet accumulation for most everyone east of the mountains in this setup, even when you consider the possibility for a backend CCB thumping either from this coastal low or a trailing upper wave
Check out the RPM model .. has way more cold air around for a good chunk of NC
Jessy89
Member
Upstate sc hard to see much accumulation looks to be slipping away
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There's a reason that model is getting phased out lol
For Chattanooga, it's really gonna depend on how much actually changes over from rain to snow... 
DadOfJax
Member
Loving this look for Maggie Valley!
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Hopefully the 06z icon doesn't start a trend
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
All the globals look pretty good for central NC as we continue to get closer. It looks like we will at least see some snow. Maybe the models are right on the totals, maybe not. Never know until the event starts unfolding.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Then why do the models keep showing more?
packfan98
Moderator
Please explain. I put little faith in the ICON, but 6z was much better than the prior 3 runs.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I would take a screenshot but they are not loading onto here. But looking at tropical tidbits there's only snow I-40 North
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Wow never mind. It changed tremendously since last time I saw it. Yeah it is better
6z EPS mean and control. Keep in mind they are in 10:1 and ratios would definitely not be that high.
We have a lot of experience with this, fortunately, and know how this plays out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My first call map for this event in NC. Not impressed with this setup and the potential of accumulating snow east of the mountains despite all the clown maps that keep getting thrown around.
Looks like mostly cold rain SE of the Triad, with cold rain &/or sleet probably being the predominant precip type in the Triad, probably a dusting or so of what would probably sleet accumulation more so than snow imo. There's certainly a legit possibility for some snow & sleet on the backside in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain but I wouldn't expect much more than a dusting accumulation-wise given the warm & wet soils (wetter soils = higher heat capacity), preceding rainfall & potential for warm advection to completely overwhelm this event & make it harder for an eventual transition to occur if the warm nose is stronger than forecast initially (which it likely will be).
Meh
Looks like mostly cold rain SE of the Triad, with cold rain &/or sleet probably being the predominant precip type in the Triad, probably a dusting or so of what would probably sleet accumulation more so than snow imo. There's certainly a legit possibility for some snow & sleet on the backside in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain but I wouldn't expect much more than a dusting accumulation-wise given the warm & wet soils (wetter soils = higher heat capacity), preceding rainfall & potential for warm advection to completely overwhelm this event & make it harder for an eventual transition to occur if the warm nose is stronger than forecast initially (which it likely will be).
Meh
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Why do the models keep showing more for NC? Why do you think it's not going to be much but rain for most folks?
LickWx
Member
He has already explained why, warm air advection driving the precip . Regardless of what models show now he sees a disconnect between the synoptic setup producing the system vs the snowfall maps the models spit . As in they don’t make sense . Either the setup is modeled wrong and we will have plenty of cold air or the more likely scenario , the snow maps are wrong and not reflecting what the setup would produce .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just looking at what's creating most of the lift in this setup, it's pretty much all warm advection for most of the event despite the fact we have an upper low moving overhead. The amount of low-level veering and WAA I'm seeing even on models like the GFS which usually suck in sniffing out warm noses is already borderline for snow/rain in the Triad and that's usually a real bad sign. If you're looking for some snow hope we erode the warm nose really fast on the backend or that the trailing wave on saturday can provide some because it looks to be mostly DCVA-driven lift. I'm not trying to be a downcaster or hype the crap out of this (as I'm doing w/ the pattern that comes around and just after mid-month). Looking at this pretty objectively, it's a crap setup. If you get a trace of sleet at the onset of the precip that's a win here.