iGRXY
Member
This morning short range models until the event are what we need to pay attention to. We are in range of the NAM now and I want to see the trends until 0Z tonight to see where we are headed for sure.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
-
- Tags
- winter
packfan98
Moderator
Might I direct you to the Whamby thread???
Yep, our (central NC) only hope is overperformance on the backside.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
06z Euro says have fun........
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I mean the door is still legitimately open for a quick burst of snow & sleet on the backend of this low and/or from a trailing wave on Saturday. I'd still say that's pretty interesting overall to be honest because there would be a little room to bust high in a few locales if everything went right. At the moment, I honestly don't see a whole lot to support more than a heavy dusting SE of the Triad in the legitimate best case scenario until we have more confidence in some of the mesoscale details and where any potential bands would setup east of the mtns late on Friday, Friday night, &/or Saturday
The wild card in this is a heavier band of precip that's going to set up somewhere that's associated with the ULL. This will have the potential to dump on someone that is only expecting cold rain with some flakes mixed in, and I think it'll likely occur outside of the mountains. Someone is going to get a surprise, but it's going to be decently isolated and extremely hard to predict where that location will be until the system is actually unfolding. Someone is going to get pasted under the deformation band with a quick few inches.
Yeah I'm actually more intrigued now by any trailing energy for Saturday, these have provided nice surprises in the past. Might be our best shot
From RAH (again it seems all eyes should be on the backside possibility):
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
525 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084-071100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
525 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
A period of snow or a rain-snow mix is possible across the Piedmont
and far northern Coastal Plain Thursday night through Friday night,
as a strong low pressure system crosses the Southeast and Carolinas.
Accumulations ranging from a dusting to a couple inches of wet snow
are possible, particularly over the Triad and surrounding areas.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...
The low pressure system that will track south of our area Friday
remains the biggest piece in the seven day forecast puzzle.
Unfortunately, the details are just not really coming into place for
this storm. Thermal profiles continue to be near the freezing mark
through much of the atmosphere, and minor changes (either warming or
cooling) could have marked effects on precipitation type. Perhaps
the biggest change to the forecast is removing rain from the
forecast for Friday morning across northern counties, allowing for
all snow and some higher snowfall totals (up to an inch) during that
time. However, through the rest of the event, models still cannot
come to a consensus on what the precipitation type will be, and have
stuck with a rain/snow mix in the official forecast. The GFS remains
a cold outlier with mostly snow, the NAM remains a warm outlier with
mostly rain, with the ECMWF and SREF ensemble showing a cold rain.
Considering precipitation will fall as a rain/snow mix, have allowed
for some minimal snow accumulations, with most of the region except
for Fayetteville expected to see measurable snow, even if that
measurable snow is only one or two tenths of an inch. Also not
reflected in the forecast is the potential for banding to occur, as
the forecast area will be in the favored northwest quadrant of the
low track. Certainly any location that ends up in a band could pick
up a quick inch or two of snow.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
525 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084-071100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
525 AM EST Wed Jan 6 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
A period of snow or a rain-snow mix is possible across the Piedmont
and far northern Coastal Plain Thursday night through Friday night,
as a strong low pressure system crosses the Southeast and Carolinas.
Accumulations ranging from a dusting to a couple inches of wet snow
are possible, particularly over the Triad and surrounding areas.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Wednesday...
The low pressure system that will track south of our area Friday
remains the biggest piece in the seven day forecast puzzle.
Unfortunately, the details are just not really coming into place for
this storm. Thermal profiles continue to be near the freezing mark
through much of the atmosphere, and minor changes (either warming or
cooling) could have marked effects on precipitation type. Perhaps
the biggest change to the forecast is removing rain from the
forecast for Friday morning across northern counties, allowing for
all snow and some higher snowfall totals (up to an inch) during that
time. However, through the rest of the event, models still cannot
come to a consensus on what the precipitation type will be, and have
stuck with a rain/snow mix in the official forecast. The GFS remains
a cold outlier with mostly snow, the NAM remains a warm outlier with
mostly rain, with the ECMWF and SREF ensemble showing a cold rain.
Considering precipitation will fall as a rain/snow mix, have allowed
for some minimal snow accumulations, with most of the region except
for Fayetteville expected to see measurable snow, even if that
measurable snow is only one or two tenths of an inch. Also not
reflected in the forecast is the potential for banding to occur, as
the forecast area will be in the favored northwest quadrant of the
low track. Certainly any location that ends up in a band could pick
up a quick inch or two of snow.
There’s gonna be some shafting if this think tries to transfer
we’ll be making a day trip out of this on Saturday. Leaning Hendersonville/Highlands with a stop at Sierra Nevada Brewery. Although it will probably be slam packed.
Jessy89
Member
I may try to go up to Hendersonville for supper Friday evening or something like that. We will see
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It definitely will be and Buncombe county has issued an order for only 30% capacity at its restaurants. Makes it even tougher. Of course Sierra Nevada may be barely in henderson county, not sure.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
12z HRRR has a good bit of sleet breaking out over the Carolinas at onset
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I am too but I don't think anyone has any real clue where (if at all) that possible band of moderate-heavy sleet on the trailing end of this storm or w/ the following wave on Saturday would be. 1-2" of snow for a few very lucky, isolated locales is potentially on the table if everything goes right and you have some good mesoscale luck to go along w/. Most folks will probably see trace-dusting amounts at best SE of the Triad. If snow or sleet falls out of the sky in Raleigh, Charlotte, or Fayetteville here I'd consider that a win in this setup
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep amended my post once I thought on it. Right on the border.
Jessy89
Member
Hrrrr is looking good Ne Georgia upstate sc north of 85 and a lot of NC
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Jessy89
Member
11z Friday morning on hrrrr
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
WYFF was showing a HRRR type situation this morning but noted it was just one model output. Here's the last 11
hours of the 12z HRRR
Edit: please give this model the credit it's due: almost none
hours of the 12z HRRREdit: please give this model the credit it's due: almost none
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
On a side note, and sorry for the banter, that piece of property is the whole reason Mills River is now a town. AVL wanted to annex the area around the airport, Mills River knew it was prime for expansion so to keep it from happening they incorporated. Now Sierra Nevada, the Amazon Warehouse, Pepsi, all of Broadpointe Manufacturing Park now reside in Mills River and they get the tax revenue. I love a good middle finger to Asheville.
Yeah in my honest opinion I’ve seen these front end thump situation and the HRRR depicts it well as the RAP has started to do ... they do well at thermal profiles as I’ve observed over past storms ... I believe the front end thump with be a big surprise to many and if we can get it to hold the backside will hold even more fun... do I believe it’s mostly rain... my inner weenie says no but even my reasonable side just doesn’t believe all this warm nose mumbo jumbo ... I hope the warm nose is wrong but I’ll prepare to be burned but something is going to catch us off guard with this one
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Through hour 24 on 12Z NAM our Vort is stronger and maybe a hair north.
What is there not to believe about the warm nose? Lmao
The HRRR is what I'm waiting for regardless of what it shows. I'm not sure about it's 48 hour performance, but short range it performed well this past December at least for the northeast with that storm.
It’s bad, like really bad.
iGRXY
Member
NAM is strong with the ULL
iGRXY
Member
At 33 the 850's are colder.
iGRXY
Member
HR42 the 850s are way colder and snow breaking out in the upstate.
Just that the front end thump will be more than most people think .. that cold air always is thicker than expected and the low placement looks so far south east of us here in central NC ... at least on the models that look colder.. maybe the warm nose eventually takes over but there’s a reason euro ensembles have remained bullish ..
iGRXY
Member
850s are way colder so far. snow really getting going at 45
??? I’ll never give up on a storm as quickly as some
that low pressure sooooo far south and East ... something just smells cold here
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The RAP honestly isn’t reliable at all and the HRRR isn’t reliable beyond 24 hours or so.
NCSNOW
Member
You guys chasing can just go on up to the northern NC Mtns where the ground is already covered and its spitting snow currently.
did someone order a front end thump ???
iGRXY
Member
Another thing to note that this had a very good front end thump that should build in the cold as well.
Edit: at 12z it tried to raise the 850's to the 85 border before crashing them again so I am not quite sure I buy that. The 850's are pretty cold this run.
Edit: at 12z it tried to raise the 850's to the 85 border before crashing them again so I am not quite sure I buy that. The 850's are pretty cold this run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Front end thumps like Dec 2018 & Feb 12-13 2014 work if the cold air is already well entrenched prior to the precip getting here. We are gonna have to spend QPF trying to wet bulb to freezing because the cold air isn’t in place and by then it may be too late
NCSNOW
Member
12z Nam is way colder/ snowier/Icer than 6z .
3k & 12K
3k & 12K
smast16
Member
You give the HRRDEERRR about 12-18 hours too much credit. lol