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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

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Still could cause problems
 
accu35 said:
Theres still going to be onset ice for some areas. That alone needs this thrrad to be open. This thread was not created for a big storm but for icing issues to warn ppl about.
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If things don't speed up soon, there will be no threat! Some models have it starting around noon in ATL
 
Every member of gefs has on set of ZR in some parts of cad region. A few bring it in by 6z Monday morning.
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I believe this will be a minor threat - if at all - at any rate, who wants ice accretion?
KGSP is forecasting a 6 hour window of sleet/ZR early AM Monday for the city of Greenville, SC
Upstate SC ALWAYS receives 2-3 winter events per year (unlike places like Birmingham/Columbia where they may go years between events - I don't expect another winter event for the Birmingham metro for 3 years LOL; but models indicate AL/TN may get snow next week!)
 
Y'all this threat is far from over. The global models never do well with this type of setup. Watch the mesoscale models. At least this is mostly an overnight threat(although that's the only reason a threat exists), meaning most will be home during the duration of it. I do feel this threat is confined to NE Alabama, NW Georgia, and Southeast Tennessee.
 
There is still a chance of freezing rain in areas like Atlanta on a Monday morning with ensemble support.
When a threat begins to dominate a pattern thread, it gets its own deal.
 
The euro was dissapointing! How the hell does it supress the low to Miami! Moisture now seems to be the biggest issue now! Uggh! Can't wait for my 60s next week
 
I had looked at the 00z EPS members last night for the ice threat. (the snowfall/mean maps don't answer our question about ice on wxbell).

Noticed a few had pretty big deals for parts of GA & a few for Upstate SC. It wasn't a lot though.

As of 00z Canadian Ensembles, a good many are still on board.


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.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)...At the start of the
forecast period surface high pressure located over the Ohio Valley
will be translating southeast. Meanwhile, our forecast area will
still be feeling the cold chill as overnight low temperatures drop
into the single digits north and upper teens south. It will be
Sunday before we break out of the sub-freezing temperatures.

The big story will be the warm air advection and moisture advection
ahead of the trough progged to bring precipitation back into the
forecast area. Model forecasts have been a challenge lately and
needless to say, uncertainty continues with this round of data.
Forecast soundings indicate that the atmosphere over E TN, SW VA and
SW NC will take some time to saturate. Currently we placed light
mixed precip moving into the TN Valley as early as Sunday
night...but in reality it may saturate a few hours after midnight.
Temperature profiles show surface temps will be well below zero
until mid-morning. About 3-4kft temperatures are well above freezing
which poses a problem in regards to freezing rain. Looks like there
will be a period from about 5 am to 11 am that many areas could
experience freezing rain/drizzle. Ice accumulations look light at this
time i.e. less than a tenth of an inch. This will certainly be
something to keep an eye on in the coming day or two.
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Yes Chattanooga needs to monitor this one closely because too many times we're fooled into thinking these setups will change over to rain.
 
If this keeps getting more squashed this is an irreverent concern but this seems to have a look that could produce a lot of freezing drizzle that maybe the models are not really printing out?
 
Tarheel1 said:
The euro was dissapointing! How the hell does it supress the low to Miami! Moisture now seems to be the biggest issue now! Uggh! Can't wait for my 60s next week
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I figured this thing was in trouble other day moisture. Nam fired 1st warning shot at hr 84 vort map. Closing off and getting squashed sent south to El Sugundo. Chalk another W for the nam. It's stuck to its guns on this. Swear world is turning upside down when Nam is on a roll for accuracy .
 
Nam takes a closed low out of Texas down to the gulf below mobile and takes 24 hours to do it, and goes from a nice precip shield over Ga and Ala with zr in the corners of those states in the beginning to no cad and no precip to speak of...with a low in the gulf..well away from the cad. Yeah, that seems realistic. This thing is still evolving. It's cad so the models just throw up their little model hands. And a few runs back it was shoving a strong low directly into a strong cad and disappearing the cad, post haste. I wonder what they get on the street for that stuff :)
 
Does it seem strange to anyone else that the shortwave responsible is traveling almost in a bee line south east almost straight to Cuba. I don't think I've seen this before. Kinda reminds you of Donkey kong? (per the GFS 18z)
 
The NAM looks crazy 66-74 it moves the H from N.carolina then to mid atlantic and then back into s.carolina does that make any sense haha
 
ForsythSnow said:
Temps don't look to be an issue anymore, but precipitation does. It just dries up and goes poof.
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Yes over N AL (not just xtreme E/NE think pretty good shot of some wintry precip in the front end maybe couple hours worth but light and spotty...

Will note the 850mb's came in just a little bit colder thinking IP then ZR to rain probably all in a 3-5 hour window for us anyway

Edit also NAM driest of most the models... If precip gets in here like NWS thinks by late Sunday into Sunday night might get interesting for AL folks
 
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Thru 36 GFS little sharper with the vort at 500mb and maybe a tick faster thus far

And the Manitoba vort pops up.... See if effect the same as NAM
 
Ok think there is a small window 2-4 hours where we in AL could see a wintry mix...look minor event but looks possible little wintry for AL main areas north central and over into E/NE AL before the WAA kicks I in... Expect little if any travel impacts just some eye candy here folks

Edit seems that HP wants to kinda hang assertions if so bigger impacts... Just gotta watch weak sfc LP to our S cold air in place well everything is on the table how does this play out always interesting when you have a decent setup in place

... Carry on
 
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I just dont think its right to call this one off before it has even begin. All it takes is just a little freezing rain to cause concerns. Even temp.
 
it looks like our LP links up with that low dropping out of the lakes then the line of moisture runs into a 1034 HP parked in the Carolinas and it splits the 2 pieces of energy back apart keeping the Carolinas almost completely dry. That's not a look you see very often. I believe the GFS showed this before any of the other modes and I thought it was out to lunch. Now every model is showing it
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I wouldn't say this would have little travel impact for where this actually occurs given that it's been cold for days now... Just not really understanding what is shunting this down into the gulf.
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Look up in Manitoba Canada wave pressing our wave sorry it is a pretty strong LP up there

Edit oh and that HP over NC can't go through it either up and over or go low under it
 
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