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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Still a-lot of questions on just how far the H pressure exits stage right I mean it makes a huge jump at 96 and how strong CAD would be... also couldn't the last storm bomb out over SE Canada and make another sudo-H pressure system
 
I can't see the cold retreating or being warmer. The snow pack put down is likely going to cool the CAD regions more than modeled, and with a high in that position, it could easily send the wedge deeper. Timing still is key, but with those temps once the rain starts falling, it should stay below freezing. If this trends later, the storm won't happen.
 
Precip needs to come in in a hurry.
 
I hate to say this because it's usually not good to make comparisons to every past winter event you've been through, but I have a hard time believing folks in the typical CAD region will have a quick changeover to rain if we're dealing with DPs in the single digits/teens, subfreezing temperatures from the onset, a good NE wind (from the HP for as long as it hangs around), and of course thick cloud cover. I think back to just this past Monday where the thick cloud cover combined with the NW winds we had kept us flatlined at 19° for 4-5 hours straight before our temps climbed into the upper 20s. I don't think we would have gotten out of the low/mid 20s had the sun not of came out later that afternoon. Plus, we just got another round of fresh arctic air over the region. At the end of the day, timing and track will be critical to what happens, but just going off of past CAD events we've been through I'm steadily growing a little more concerned especially since were only 3-4 days away from this event beginning.
 
FWIW, TWC has a 90% chance of ZR here Sunday night and 100% chance of rain/ZR here on Monday. NWS has 60% to 80%. Seems forecasting outlets plus the NWS have a lot of confidence in this, and with that it makes it much more concerning. I would like to hear some professional opinions on here about what could all happen across N GA and NW SC as well as possibly into W NC.
 
Almost every CAD event has been modeled wrong on temps. The only thing we can look at is the timing of the precip and make a call based on that.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Mellish worried models underestimating wedge
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FFC and Mellish seemed concerned even with yesterdays runs, everyone seemingly knows thru experience how underwhelming models handle CAD events and we've seem them come in stronger before with weaker H and less in place cold air then what we've had
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Of course we get perfect storm tracks when the cold retreats
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Well, the storm track yesterday was usually the kind that gives us a good storm here, but it took forever to overcome the dry air. Seems like the cold we had so long actually hampered things.
 
As mentioned all depends on what that HP does if indeed it continues to shift off the East Coast at the onset yes ZR very possible in the CAD areas from xtreme E AL and points to the North and East and if there is some blocking upstream to hold the HP in place well we know major ice storm could take place

... Carry on


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Xtreme Weather said:
As mentioned all depends on what that HP does if indeed it continues to shift off the East Coast at the onset yes ZR very possible in the CAD areas from xtreme E AL and points to the North and East and if there is some blocking upstream to hold the HP in place well we know major ice storm could take place

... Carry on


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Always love your input...lol
 
stormcentral said:
Models even put southeast TN in play for some freezing rain, sleet and snow. Yep watching it. We know how CAD goes.
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I wouldn't expect much there as it's on the other side of the mountains. The whole deal with CAD involves topography and how the cold air is sheared off and by upper level winds due to the mountains in addition to low level cold being fed in. Maybe some for an hour or two but without support from the high pressure and cold being pushed in on the lower levels, you won't get much accretion for very long and it will melt fast as temps rise.
 
CMC totals pretty rough uptick from 00z run not as bad as yesterdays 12z though

zr_acc.us_ma.png.38b2cf4d3757ca3fcddb02a076518e9f.png
 
As others have alreay said, it really just comes down to the timing. If the timing isn't perfect this may be one of or coldest rains of the season
 
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