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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

MBell said:
As dry and cold as this air is, I see no issue getting ice accretion for a bit. I’ve seen this dance many times. This one will be interesting to watch as well because let’s be honest...most storms we’ve had this winter have been oddly strange. Lol.


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Agree ! Get the precip here before daybreak, will be bad for a few hours anyway! Local news just showed sim radar, and has precip getting to N Ga and extreme western Carolinas by around 4 AM. Arrival a few hours earlier, could be a bigger deal!
 
FFC:
.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

High pressure and strong cold air advection will remain
in place over the area to begin the extended period. As a result,
cold conditions are expected through Sunday morning, particularly on
Friday night into Saturday morning, where low temperatures in the
10s in north GA and 20s elsewhere in central and south GA are
anticipated. Northwesterly winds between 10 and 15 mph will
contribute to low wind chills throughout our area at this time, with
values in the teens throughout most of the area, and even dropping
into the single digits and negatives in the far northeast corner of
the area. High temperatures will also be well below normal on
Saturday.

In the later part of the weekend, the high pressure center will move
eastward offshore and a frontal system will begin to move into the
mid Mississippi Valley. Surface winds will gain a southeasterly
component which will lead to a gradual increase in temperature and
moisture in the area on Sunday and into early next week. GFS and
ECMWF models are in good agreement regarding the timing of this
frontal feature, bringing PoPs in late Sunday night and until
early Tuesday morning when the moves eastward out of the area.
With this continuing increased confidence, have increased to
categorical PoPs during the daytime on Monday. By Sunday night, a
wedge will have formed across the northeast portions of the
forecast area. Cold temperatures at the surface within the wedge
combined with warmer temperatures aloft will create the potential
for freezing rain and sleet. Wintry precipitation total will be
highly dependent on the position and strength of the wedge, so
forecast will be subject to change over the next few days.
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GSP discussion says : could be interesting 8-12 hours on Monday. Expect precip to start as snow, go to freezing rain, then plain rain by midday! Say forecast subject to change!
 
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So comparing 06z runs and 00z runs to last night right away on the 06z runs the NAM is further east with energy then it's counter-parties and while it has same low in Canadian that 00z GFS had last night it was a tick further NW the GFS, based on this look we would have a earlier onset in GA/Carolina's and better position of H to assist in the CAD event
 
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Just something to note. Models are placing that HP just off the coast of NC in the Atlantic at the onset of precip Sunday night. I'm curious to see what happens when that cold air is filtered in over solid snowpack. One would think that would only serve to strengthen the wedge
 
weatherfide said:
12 z NAM looks ominous at 72 hours. Dewpoints in single digits over the SE. Negative single digits.
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How's the precip and timing? Heavy and early morning, late night?
 
Tarheel1 said:
How's the precip and timing? Heavy and early morning, late night?
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Early AM hours Monday for start of event in GA and GFS/CMC seem to be if I'm splitting difference between .1 and .25 roughly... heavier as day goes on but then question is rain or Fz rain depends on CAD most models show changeover to rain as heaviest comes thru
 
weatherfide said:
Waiting on twisterdata for more maps, but it looks like timing would be around 7 am to 12 pm monday...it's beyond nams range. Take all this with huge grains of salt.
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NAM is out of range but right before event the dew points are ridiculous and it's usally pretty good on CAD/thermo. That's some cold/dry air and a new snow pack which we've seen Globals struggle with CAD events definitely bares some nail-baiting
 
Slightly colder 2m temps 30 degrees and further east on 12z GFS run which I could easily see being 2-3 degrees to warm knowing how models struggle on CAD temps
 
Great storm track on the GFS. Unfortunate that we couldn’t get a storm track like that while we had our arctic air mass in place.
 
GFS slight uptick in Fz rain amounts, CMC is very bad looking so far for SE and it's usually better Global model with CAD
 
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