GSP discussion is very uninteresting for ice! Front end , less than .10 accretion, start later, more south , weaker, blah, blah, blah! Nobody will know until it's nowcasting time. They did mention meso- high holding temps colder for slightly longer
Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD eventsNo doubt. But my point is that folks are saying that the cold air cannot be eroded that fast. It can because I've seen it first hand.
How is that honking Ice storm ?
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Low level winds are also at play. If the high moves out and winds veer to south or southwest, it'll warm.Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
Good grief why do people feel like I'm Doofus on their ice threat. All I said is the AFD posted above does not sound like they are honking ice storm . I understand how cad storms normally work . I've been around for a long time and I've seen plenty of FFC Afds.ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
Good grief why do people feel like I'm Doofus on their ice threat. All I said is the AFD posted above does not sound like they are honking ice storm . I understand how cad storms normally work . I've been around for a long time and I've seen plenty of FFC Afds.
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what is the average annual snowfall for Birmingham? (used to live there)I've had 4.5 inches already this year...
Yes, I know that storm. Ice storm 20 miles away but a cold rain where I was at. I guess well see.let me remind you why we need to keep an eye on this... this wasnt even in the forecast AT ALL... View attachment 2611
I believe that was a meso high type storm correct?let me remind you why we need to keep an eye on this... this wasnt even in the forecast AT ALL... View attachment 2611
Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
Nam also has more stout CAD in place ahead of precip. High res models will be telling over next few days.Stays a little colder in ATL at 18z
I’m saying it’s wrong in doing it they quickly. Canadian warms up as well but only after it drops 3/4 inch of ice.Every model is showing the warm up. Really doubt there all that wrong
let me remind you why we need to keep an eye on this... this wasnt even in the forecast AT ALL... View attachment 2611
Wasn’t suppose to extend that far south at all or too that extend. My point remains the same...Actually it was, it just was forecast as a minor nuisance iirc but as I remember, it stayed freezing in the CAD areas until damage was done.
Precip looks a little more robust also!
Precip looks a little more robust also!
What time roughly does GFS have precip arrive at GSPLooking over the 12z GEFS, your area, along with parts of NC & NE GA are in play.
What time roughly does GFS have precip arrive at GSP
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rainI would say 5-8 AM; give or take. I am being generous here, due to timing differences. At face value above, it's around 7 AM. Just in time to make a mess, even with light amounts, for the morning travel (Monday morning!)
I just don’t see it happening as quick as models show. Look how cold nam was at end of its runThat pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
How would you feel if models had you in the Ice bullseye 4 days out?That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
We were only supposed to have rain here in most of upstate SC. Areas north of I-85 had a forecast of freezing rain changing to rain. Needless to say they busted bigtime.. We got freezing rain and then sleet here where I am 25 miles south of I-85. Everything was 75-100 miles farther south and west of where it was supposed to be. CAD is underforecast 90% of the time or more from Gainesville GA to Greensboro NC.Wasn’t suppose to extend that far south at all or too that extend. My point remains the same...
It's possible I guess, but I don't see it either. Only having the timing be later in the day would keep this from being a fairly significant event.I just don’t see it happening as quick as models show. Look how cold nam was at end of its run
We need a weaker low, and much further south, out of Ga all together, then the waa won't over power the cad and we'll have a good old over running, with zr, ip, and snow, depending on which layer your house is under, lol.This is definitely an important storm to keep an eye on, esp considering cold surfaces from the series of arctic blast we have being having.. making travel potentially dangerous. As of now, how i see it, a minor "freezing rain advisory" criteria event. If we want to see an ice storm (>.25" accretion), as other have stated, either/and we will need the high pressure to stay in place longer wrt the arrival of precipitation. Wildcard could be a meso-high develops even if the high pressure starts to get kicked out. we really arnt too far away from an ice storm.. and we all know how models poorly resolve the wedge and the evolution of it. Here is a picture of CMC ice accretion totals... yeah we need to keep an eye on this guys..View attachment 2610
We need a weaker low, and much further south, out of Ga all together, then the waa won't over power the cad and we'll have a good old over running, with zr, ip, and snow, depending on which layer your house is under, lol.
You are so right. zr is just solid liquid destructionWe need to try to get you your sleet dangit.
On topic, this needs to be watched simply because CAD has a mind of it's own. But for those that have been complaining, pure freezing rain is not something you want to go through. There's a reason why I posted (let's try to wish this away) earlier.