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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Mercedes-Benz Stadium officials will really be sweating possible winter weather. The Georgia High School football championships were cancelled there with the early December storm at the strong encouragement of stadium officials. Apparently the roof design is dangerous for snow/ice falling off. Reportedly, a car was damaged by falling snow/ice during high school championships. Winter weather will be the LAST thing wanted by officials.
 
k0skinne said:
Mercedes-Benz Stadium officials will really be sweating possible winter weather. The Georgia High School football championships were cancelled there with the early December storm at the strong encouragement of stadium officials. Apparently the roof design is dangerous for snow/ice falling off. Reportedly, a car was damaged by falling snow/ice during high school championships. Winter weather will be the LAST thing wanted by officials.
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Thank for the info
 
Majority of operational modeling has the High pulling away before the precipitation can really get started. It's a timing thing, and ensembles will be very important in regards to this event.
 
By hour 60 GFS, our vorticity looks way different versus the 18z forecast. This one's gonna take a few days to figure out.
 
Sub freezing temps with moisture moving in within th CAD areas. Not looking good.

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GFS closes our wave off again, but 500mb is much different.
 
GFS trying to make a strong system that will likely run inland; not quite sure. But mix/ZR breaking out in GA. High has pulled away, for the most part.
 
Operational GFS, not a huge ZR fest, some early stuff in GA & NC before turning to rain quickly. It could still be substantial, talking about ZR, but not some chaotic looking thing the 12z Canadian had.
 
Shawn said:
Operational GFS, not a huge ZR fest, some early stuff in GA & NC before turning to rain quickly. It could still be substantial, talking about ZR, but not some chaotic looking thing the 12z Canadian had.
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Canadian has not budged for quite a few runs now. And this run looks like it may show a hit again

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H5, Canadian and GFS are so far apart; not even worth trying to figure out right now; Lol.
 
In fact, Canadian at H5 is ridiculously different versus 12z. Whew! This one is going to be annoying.
 
CMC has bulk of precip delayed compared to 12z. Still shows a CAD situation with ice at the start but high retreating pretty quickly. Maybe a chance for In Situ CAD but prob not going to get it done IMO which is ok because ice with no snow is just a crap situation
 
I would like to note that you can view the Canadian ensembles here (they are SLOW AS ALL GET OUT!): http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/
They didn't look bad for a chance; there were some big ones on the previous run (12z).

The GEFS ensembles, of course are on the college of dupage site here: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Or currently they can be viewed here (will go pay eventually): http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
The 12z GEFS gave some credit to at least a beginning with some mix/ZR.

If you start comparing the ensemble runs against each other, you should get a good idea within the next couple of days. The 00z Canadian and GFS operational runs were both different from each other, radically, and also different from their previous runs (radically).
 
Shawn said:
In fact, Canadian at H5 is ridiculously different versus 12z. Whew! This one is going to be annoying.
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00z GFS an Canadian both similar with trailing wave dropping down out of Canada over the lakes
 
What's causing that HP to move out so fast. That to me just seems off, I'm not so sure it gets out of here that quick

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