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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

GSP discussion is very uninteresting for ice! Front end , less than .10 accretion, start later, more south , weaker, blah, blah, blah! Nobody will know until it's nowcasting time. They did mention meso- high holding temps colder for slightly longer
 
mrdaddyman said:
No doubt. But my point is that folks are saying that the cold air cannot be eroded that fast. It can because I've seen it first hand.
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Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
 
Storm5 said:
How is that honking Ice storm ?

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ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
 
MichaelJ said:
Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
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Low level winds are also at play. If the high moves out and winds veer to south or southwest, it'll warm.
 
BPATL said:
ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
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Good grief why do people feel like I'm Doofus on their ice threat. All I said is the AFD posted above does not sound like they are honking ice storm . I understand how cad storms normally work . I've been around for a long time and I've seen plenty of FFC Afds.

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BPATL said:
ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
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Storm5 said:
Good grief why do people feel like I'm Doofus on their ice threat. All I said is the AFD posted above does not sound like they are honking ice storm . I understand how cad storms normally work . I've been around for a long time and I've seen plenty of FFC Afds.

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I did not say you were "Doofus" on an ice threat, I was trying to answer your question, forgive me if I got your ire up...
 
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This is definitely an important storm to keep an eye on, esp considering cold surfaces from the series of arctic blast we have being having.. making travel potentially dangerous. As of now, how i see it, a minor "freezing rain advisory" criteria event. If we want to see an ice storm (>.25" accretion), as other have stated, either/and we will need the high pressure to stay in place longer wrt the arrival of precipitation. Wildcard could be a meso-high develops even if the high pressure starts to get kicked out. we really arnt too far away from an ice storm.. and we all know how models poorly resolve the wedge and the evolution of it. Here is a picture of CMC ice accretion totals... yeah we need to keep an eye on this guys..cie.png
 
Here is end of 12KM 18z NAM fwiw. ZR back I'm Alabama/Tennessee at edge of precip line.
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MichaelJ said:
Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
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Been here over 20+ years and CAD is a way bigger/different animal in the NW part of NC than it is futher south and along the edges. witnessed 1st hand what you just described more times than I can count. Once we can see what time and how much qpf moves in , then it will be easy to tell if this is going to be a 4 alarm event (meaning it stays at or below 32 the entire time precip is falling.) I promise you if steady moisture settles in here Sunday night with those DPS and temps in the 20s, aint no latent heat release,hp sliding off, sw wind take over etc gonna scour the wedge out in this region until the event is 99% over at best. Expierence and the parameters that are in place make forecasting events like this Sun/Mon really easy imo. You have to rely on forecasting, not modelcasting or youll bust everytime.
 
Shawn said:
Looking over the 12z GEFS, your area, along with parts of NC & NE GA are in play.
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What time roughly does GFS have precip arrive at GSP
 
Tarheel1 said:
What time roughly does GFS have precip arrive at GSP
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I would say 5-8 AM; give or take. I am being generous here, due to timing differences. At face value above, it's around 7 AM. Just in time to make a mess, even with light amounts, for the morning travel (Monday morning!)
 
Shawn said:
I would say 5-8 AM; give or take. I am being generous here, due to timing differences. At face value above, it's around 7 AM. Just in time to make a mess, even with light amounts, for the morning travel (Monday morning!)
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That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
 
Tarheel1 said:
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
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I just don’t see it happening as quick as models show. Look how cold nam was at end of its run
 
Tarheel1 said:
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
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How would you feel if models had you in the Ice bullseye 4 days out?
 
Tarheel1 said:
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
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GFS sources are between 3 hours and 6 hours. 3-6 hours of ZR can cause problems.
 
EastAtlwx said:
Wasn’t suppose to extend that far south at all or too that extend. My point remains the same...
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We were only supposed to have rain here in most of upstate SC. Areas north of I-85 had a forecast of freezing rain changing to rain. Needless to say they busted bigtime.. We got freezing rain and then sleet here where I am 25 miles south of I-85. Everything was 75-100 miles farther south and west of where it was supposed to be. CAD is underforecast 90% of the time or more from Gainesville GA to Greensboro NC.
 
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EastAtlwx said:
This is definitely an important storm to keep an eye on, esp considering cold surfaces from the series of arctic blast we have being having.. making travel potentially dangerous. As of now, how i see it, a minor "freezing rain advisory" criteria event. If we want to see an ice storm (>.25" accretion), as other have stated, either/and we will need the high pressure to stay in place longer wrt the arrival of precipitation. Wildcard could be a meso-high develops even if the high pressure starts to get kicked out. we really arnt too far away from an ice storm.. and we all know how models poorly resolve the wedge and the evolution of it. Here is a picture of CMC ice accretion totals... yeah we need to keep an eye on this guys..View attachment 2610
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We need a weaker low, and much further south, out of Ga all together, then the waa won't over power the cad and we'll have a good old over running, with zr, ip, and snow, depending on which layer your house is under, lol.
 
dsaur said:
We need a weaker low, and much further south, out of Ga all together, then the waa won't over power the cad and we'll have a good old over running, with zr, ip, and snow, depending on which layer your house is under, lol.
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We need to try to get you your sleet dangit.

On topic, this needs to be watched simply because CAD has a mind of it's own. But for those that have been complaining, pure freezing rain is not something you want to go through. There's a reason why I posted (let's try to wish this away) earlier.
 
Believe ICE is not fun, January 8th 1973 in Atlanta will be ingrained in my mind until I die. Probably the worst Ice storm ever in the SE...
 
Well may have been brought out but basicly most if not all models still have problems with CAD erosion timing. that said my thoughts is almost all of Metro ATL should be in play for this...
 
Just catching up on the board today and haven't really looked at models for Monday (other than the kind analysis of the screenshots y'all have provided; thank y'all for that).

There are two major reasons why I am rooting -- actively -- for WAA and no winter precip:

1. Freezing rain, as we have discussed repeatedly, is a mess. Does not take much to provide a disruptive event for travel and daily activities. Add in just how cold it has been for a full week leading into the event, and it will not take very much precip at all to really make things messy. No 60 degree highs a couple of days before the potential event.

2. Monday is a huge day in Atlanta, with the national championship game that evening, heaven knows how many tens of thousands of people visiting downtown (some I would guarantee do not have tickets to the game, but are there to soak up the atmosphere) ... I remember the freezing rain when Atlanta hosted Super Bowl XXXIV in January 2000 (I'll save my moving story from the NE Ga mountains to the southern suburbs that week for banter one of these days). Net-net: that event was a huge headache and the city's response left a lot to be desired.

Wedges are very tricky. How strong is it? How far SW does it extend? How quickly does the high work east? How much moisture works N and NE and how much WAA does it bring to erode the wedge? Models typically do not handle wedge temps and resulting warmup well.

This certainly bears watching. I'd be willing to bet given the influx of folks coming to town is why FFC was quite uncharacteristically bullish in this afternoon's AFD.

--30--
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We need to try to get you your sleet dangit.

On topic, this needs to be watched simply because CAD has a mind of it's own. But for those that have been complaining, pure freezing rain is not something you want to go through. There's a reason why I posted (let's try to wish this away) earlier.
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You are so right. zr is just solid liquid destruction :) I've seen decades of it and it's always leaving broken stuff in it's wake, lol. It's like wanting an ef 1 or 2, or in rare cases 3 level destruction in you neighborhood so you don't waste a good super cell, lol. Once you live thru a truly good one, you hope to never see that again. Once is enough, and each episode can be another big one. It will be a blessing to get a good rain to wash it away. Still, if the players would just align over the next few days, I could get my sleet :) That's where I'm putting all my whammy, that and a Falcons win, lol. On of my best sleet storms used up a good half of the qpf as heavy, heavy rain, then around 3am the cad got a kinker, and like a switch it went to heavy sleet. Probably had 2 to 2 1/2 inches where I was in midtown. Amazing storm. Blew Guy Shapes mind, lol. Can't ever discount cad. It's a special deal in this area, maybe like no other. Thunder sleet, lol. Thunder snow is prettier because the lightening flashes off the falling snow, the ground, and the clouds. Cool stuff all around :) Edit: If you ever see thunder zr, kiss you asp good bye, lol.
 
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