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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

I don’t even want an ice storm, but i just don’t quite get how temps can rise so much with temps around 28 and dewpoints bear zero.
 
Somebody look at a sounding and see if the cold dome is deep or very shallow. With the high moving WELL offshore, pumping in air off of the Atlantic, the low pushing air in from the SW, and the precip taking forever to get in and lock in the wedge, it may very well turn out to be nothing more than a nuisance event. That said, the globals absolutely will erode the cold dome too quickly and have fun with bogus SLP tracks at this range. The high MUST stay in place a bit longer and/or the precip needs to move in faster. Ticks slower with the preip are not what we want to see.
 
As has been mentioned previously, it comes down to the strength and positioning of the HP ... if the models have a good grasp of it moving away that quickly, I can see the quick warm-up. However, experience tells many of us that traditionally wedges are difficult to erode. But if the HP is moving away, I can see the warm overtaking the cold relatively quickly. Still a lot to watch!
 
One other thing to note, Grit mentioned it on the other board, but if precipitation arrives early enough and locks in the wedge, the development of a meso high in VA is a definite possibility. This would act to maintain a NE component to the low level flow and keep the wedging going for parts of the Piedmont. Obviously, these are details that require much closer leads to ascertain. Right now, I'd give this about a 25% chance of being something more than a little front end icing. Still have a bit of work to do.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
I don’t even want an ice storm, but i just don’t quite get how temps can rise so much with temps around 28 and dewpoints bear zero.
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Depends on where the low that Goofy was showing decides to go...and how strong it is. Thru Ga and the waa screams in and it's rain in a hurry. Down in Fla and it's Tony's sleet storm :)
 
Rain Cold said:
One other thing to note, Grit mentioned it on the other board, but if precipitation arrives early enough and locks in the wedge, the development of a meso high in VA is a definite possibility. This would act to maintain a NE component to the low level flow and keep the wedging going for parts of the Piedmont. Obviously, these are details that require much closer leads to ascertain. Right now, I'd give this about a 25% chance of being something more than a little front end icing. Still have a bit of work to do.
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waiting on Robert as he is one of the best with cad storms
 
yep models seem to always miss cad events. The event generally does more than model shows
 
deltadog03 said:
The high leaving quicky won't help the cad process at all.
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This is not your average high or cold! But it mostly will be dependent on how quickly moisture can arrive. IMO, get moderate precip in any time before 7,8,9 AM, and it will be much worse! If precip arrives at noon or later, cold rain for everybody!
 
If that HP is not around WAA from the incoming shortwave will quickly flush out the trapped cold air period... It will take more time of course the further E you are but eventually it WAA will win out... Again this is IF the HP is transient as the models are currently showing... Front end ice then to rain


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
If we can get precip in around 11:30 PM Sunday it's game on. Southwesterly winds will certainly take over at some point but it won't matter if there's already 1/4-1/2 inch of ice on everything. The damage will already be done. 00z runs tomorrow night should be telling as far as precip timing goes
 
Rain Cold said:
One other thing to note, Grit mentioned it on the other board, but if precipitation arrives early enough and locks in the wedge, the development of a meso high in VA is a definite possibility. This would act to maintain a NE component to the low level flow and keep the wedging going for parts of the Piedmont. Obviously, these are details that require much closer leads to ascertain. Right now, I'd give this about a 25% chance of being something more than a little front end icing. Still have a bit of work to do.
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Who's this grit character!?
Just have to watch trends, if precip arrives late morning or afternoon, its game over!
 
I’m having a hard time remembering a CAD ice storm set up on the heels of such a severe and lengthy artic outbreak.

FFC afternoon discussion said that temps and dew points came in a few degrees colder on 12z runs for sun night/Monday.
 
Local met says we have to outsmart the models because they never handle CAD even remotely well. He's anticipating icy conditions through the early morning hours maybe up until 10-11am. He reinforced the fact that a lot of our wintry events come on the heels of a a pattern change with southwesterly winds bringing moisture in. He's clearly seen this movie before
 
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