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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

GSP discussion is very uninteresting for ice! Front end , less than .10 accretion, start later, more south , weaker, blah, blah, blah! Nobody will know until it's nowcasting time. They did mention meso- high holding temps colder for slightly longer
 
mrdaddyman said:
No doubt. But my point is that folks are saying that the cold air cannot be eroded that fast. It can because I've seen it first hand.
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Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
 
Storm5 said:
How is that honking Ice storm ?

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ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
 
MichaelJ said:
Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
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Low level winds are also at play. If the high moves out and winds veer to south or southwest, it'll warm.
 
BPATL said:
ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
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Good grief why do people feel like I'm Doofus on their ice threat. All I said is the AFD posted above does not sound like they are honking ice storm . I understand how cad storms normally work . I've been around for a long time and I've seen plenty of FFC Afds.

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BPATL said:
ATL is WAY more prone than BHAM to CAD and Ice storms, Nelson has been at FFC for decades...Key words to note Eroding too fast, dew point lower and temps lower, look like a perfect setup for some chaos in Atlanta, plus the wedge is forecast to be very strong.
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Storm5 said:
Good grief why do people feel like I'm Doofus on their ice threat. All I said is the AFD posted above does not sound like they are honking ice storm . I understand how cad storms normally work . I've been around for a long time and I've seen plenty of FFC Afds.

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I did not say you were "Doofus" on an ice threat, I was trying to answer your question, forgive me if I got your ire up...
 
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This is definitely an important storm to keep an eye on, esp considering cold surfaces from the series of arctic blast we have being having.. making travel potentially dangerous. As of now, how i see it, a minor "freezing rain advisory" criteria event. If we want to see an ice storm (>.25" accretion), as other have stated, either/and we will need the high pressure to stay in place longer wrt the arrival of precipitation. Wildcard could be a meso-high develops even if the high pressure starts to get kicked out. we really arnt too far away from an ice storm.. and we all know how models poorly resolve the wedge and the evolution of it. Here is a picture of CMC ice accretion totals... yeah we need to keep an eye on this guys..cie.png
 
Here is end of 12KM 18z NAM fwiw. ZR back I'm Alabama/Tennessee at edge of precip line.
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MichaelJ said:
Totally depends on location, yes in the Raleigh Durham area it can erode very quickly but as you go 100 miles west into the NW Piedmont, it tends to settle on the east side of the foothills and gets trapped for a more extensive period. I can't tell you how many times I have seen zr start at 27-28 and it take all day to get to 32. As I said earlier, I hate the zr but do acknowledge I have seen this over 40 years and more often than not, W-S westward stays below freezing a long time in these type of CAD events
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Been here over 20+ years and CAD is a way bigger/different animal in the NW part of NC than it is futher south and along the edges. witnessed 1st hand what you just described more times than I can count. Once we can see what time and how much qpf moves in , then it will be easy to tell if this is going to be a 4 alarm event (meaning it stays at or below 32 the entire time precip is falling.) I promise you if steady moisture settles in here Sunday night with those DPS and temps in the 20s, aint no latent heat release,hp sliding off, sw wind take over etc gonna scour the wedge out in this region until the event is 99% over at best. Expierence and the parameters that are in place make forecasting events like this Sun/Mon really easy imo. You have to rely on forecasting, not modelcasting or youll bust everytime.
 
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