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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

GFSSE_prec_ptype_090.png
 
Shawn said:
Looking over the 12z GEFS, your area, along with parts of NC & NE GA are in play.
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What time roughly does GFS have precip arrive at GSP
 
Tarheel1 said:
What time roughly does GFS have precip arrive at GSP
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I would say 5-8 AM; give or take. I am being generous here, due to timing differences. At face value above, it's around 7 AM. Just in time to make a mess, even with light amounts, for the morning travel (Monday morning!)
 
Shawn said:
I would say 5-8 AM; give or take. I am being generous here, due to timing differences. At face value above, it's around 7 AM. Just in time to make a mess, even with light amounts, for the morning travel (Monday morning!)
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That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
 
Tarheel1 said:
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
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I just don’t see it happening as quick as models show. Look how cold nam was at end of its run
 
Tarheel1 said:
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
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How would you feel if models had you in the Ice bullseye 4 days out?
 
Tarheel1 said:
That pink dot is gone the next frame. Common theme seems to be delayed onset, quick warm up, losing hope. This gets any later in the day, all rain
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GFS sources are between 3 hours and 6 hours. 3-6 hours of ZR can cause problems.
 
EastAtlwx said:
Wasn’t suppose to extend that far south at all or too that extend. My point remains the same...
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We were only supposed to have rain here in most of upstate SC. Areas north of I-85 had a forecast of freezing rain changing to rain. Needless to say they busted bigtime.. We got freezing rain and then sleet here where I am 25 miles south of I-85. Everything was 75-100 miles farther south and west of where it was supposed to be. CAD is underforecast 90% of the time or more from Gainesville GA to Greensboro NC.
 
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EastAtlwx said:
This is definitely an important storm to keep an eye on, esp considering cold surfaces from the series of arctic blast we have being having.. making travel potentially dangerous. As of now, how i see it, a minor "freezing rain advisory" criteria event. If we want to see an ice storm (>.25" accretion), as other have stated, either/and we will need the high pressure to stay in place longer wrt the arrival of precipitation. Wildcard could be a meso-high develops even if the high pressure starts to get kicked out. we really arnt too far away from an ice storm.. and we all know how models poorly resolve the wedge and the evolution of it. Here is a picture of CMC ice accretion totals... yeah we need to keep an eye on this guys..View attachment 2610
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We need a weaker low, and much further south, out of Ga all together, then the waa won't over power the cad and we'll have a good old over running, with zr, ip, and snow, depending on which layer your house is under, lol.
 
dsaur said:
We need a weaker low, and much further south, out of Ga all together, then the waa won't over power the cad and we'll have a good old over running, with zr, ip, and snow, depending on which layer your house is under, lol.
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We need to try to get you your sleet dangit.

On topic, this needs to be watched simply because CAD has a mind of it's own. But for those that have been complaining, pure freezing rain is not something you want to go through. There's a reason why I posted (let's try to wish this away) earlier.
 
Believe ICE is not fun, January 8th 1973 in Atlanta will be ingrained in my mind until I die. Probably the worst Ice storm ever in the SE...
 
Well may have been brought out but basicly most if not all models still have problems with CAD erosion timing. that said my thoughts is almost all of Metro ATL should be in play for this...
 
Just catching up on the board today and haven't really looked at models for Monday (other than the kind analysis of the screenshots y'all have provided; thank y'all for that).

There are two major reasons why I am rooting -- actively -- for WAA and no winter precip:

1. Freezing rain, as we have discussed repeatedly, is a mess. Does not take much to provide a disruptive event for travel and daily activities. Add in just how cold it has been for a full week leading into the event, and it will not take very much precip at all to really make things messy. No 60 degree highs a couple of days before the potential event.

2. Monday is a huge day in Atlanta, with the national championship game that evening, heaven knows how many tens of thousands of people visiting downtown (some I would guarantee do not have tickets to the game, but are there to soak up the atmosphere) ... I remember the freezing rain when Atlanta hosted Super Bowl XXXIV in January 2000 (I'll save my moving story from the NE Ga mountains to the southern suburbs that week for banter one of these days). Net-net: that event was a huge headache and the city's response left a lot to be desired.

Wedges are very tricky. How strong is it? How far SW does it extend? How quickly does the high work east? How much moisture works N and NE and how much WAA does it bring to erode the wedge? Models typically do not handle wedge temps and resulting warmup well.

This certainly bears watching. I'd be willing to bet given the influx of folks coming to town is why FFC was quite uncharacteristically bullish in this afternoon's AFD.

--30--
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
We need to try to get you your sleet dangit.

On topic, this needs to be watched simply because CAD has a mind of it's own. But for those that have been complaining, pure freezing rain is not something you want to go through. There's a reason why I posted (let's try to wish this away) earlier.
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You are so right. zr is just solid liquid destruction :) I've seen decades of it and it's always leaving broken stuff in it's wake, lol. It's like wanting an ef 1 or 2, or in rare cases 3 level destruction in you neighborhood so you don't waste a good super cell, lol. Once you live thru a truly good one, you hope to never see that again. Once is enough, and each episode can be another big one. It will be a blessing to get a good rain to wash it away. Still, if the players would just align over the next few days, I could get my sleet :) That's where I'm putting all my whammy, that and a Falcons win, lol. On of my best sleet storms used up a good half of the qpf as heavy, heavy rain, then around 3am the cad got a kinker, and like a switch it went to heavy sleet. Probably had 2 to 2 1/2 inches where I was in midtown. Amazing storm. Blew Guy Shapes mind, lol. Can't ever discount cad. It's a special deal in this area, maybe like no other. Thunder sleet, lol. Thunder snow is prettier because the lightening flashes off the falling snow, the ground, and the clouds. Cool stuff all around :) Edit: If you ever see thunder zr, kiss you asp good bye, lol.
 
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