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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Some members of the Canadian are jumping off board now as of 12z. Threat, currently, diminishing.

SREF %s dropping to the East each run.
 
MRX put a winter weather advisory up in our area for freezing drizzle overnight Sunday, changing to freezing rain before switching over to rain early afternoon. If that's the case they are seeing it colder for a much longer time than before. Earlier forecasts from MRX had us at slight chance for a few hours of mixture before changing to rain. We'll see how it plays out but the Monday morning commute could be interesting in some areas.
 
What again is keeping this from effecting East GA and SC?
 
gawxnative said:
Mostly the dry air at mid levels, so any precip will mostly evaporate as it passes through that layer.. And the total amount of moisture to too little to saturate that layer
Click to expand...
Thanks for replying. Crazy it looks like that wont be a problem the day after. Smh lol
 
From BMX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.Rain will overspread central Alabama tonight as an upper level
system approaches the area from the west. Light rain will move
into areas east of I-65 after midnight. Surface temperatures
across the northeast counties will be near freezing. A light glace
of freezing rain is possible for areas along and north of a line
from Gadsden, to Jacksonville, to Fruithurst, mainly on elevated
surfaces like bridges, trees and power lines.

ALZ018>021-072100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.180108T0600Z-180108T1500Z/
Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-
Including the cities of Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, and Heflin
351 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Light freezing rain expected. The ice will result in a
light glaze on bridges, trees and power lines.

* WHERE...Etowah, Calhoun, Cherokee and Cleburne Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight until 9 AM CST Monday.

From HUN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
252 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...Light ice accumulations are possible late tonight and Monday
morning...

.An approaching weather system will spread light rain across the
Tennessee Valley tonight into Monday. Temperatures will be cold
enough in eastern portions of southern middle Tennessee and
northeast Alabama for freezing rain to occur late tonight into
Monday morning.

ALZ009-010-TNZ097-072200-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.180108T0600Z-180108T1800Z/
Jackson-De Kalb-Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Rainsville,
Winchester, Sewanee, Decherd, Estill Springs, and Cowan
252 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in difficult
travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of one tenth of an
inch or less are expected.

* WHERE...In Alabama, Jackson and De Kalb Counties. In Tennessee,
Franklin County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing rain will change to rain
sometime late Monday morning as temperatures warm above
freezing.
 
From FFC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018


GAZ001>003-011-019-030-041-071645-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.180108T0600Z-180108T1500Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Chattooga-Floyd-Polk-Haralson-
Including the city of Rome
334 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
 
Anyone around CAE wondering, SREF has near 0% of ZR around, along with less than 20% pops for plain rain. This should be confined to our West.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The mean has practically doubled here from .13 to .21 QPF FWIW. Seems to reflect what the other SR models are showing.
Click to expand...

Remember, the last event did the same thing, kinda. NAM/SREF/RGEM was a bigger deal around here and we ended up with zilch. ZR isn't something to play with though.
 
Shawn said:
Remember, the last event did the same thing, kinda. NAM/SREF/RGEM was a bigger deal around here and we ended up with zilch. ZR isn't something to play with though.
Click to expand...
we will be fine in CAE I'm not worried.
 
Spurs up said:
we will be fine in CAE I'm not worried.
Click to expand...

Yep. They even note moisture is too shallow; might not even see rain! Thunderstorms possible next week, though.
 
Y
Shawn said:
Remember, the last event did the same thing, kinda. NAM/SREF/RGEM was a bigger deal around here and we ended up with zilch. ZR isn't something to play with though.
Click to expand...
Yep. But as you said, ZR cannot be messed with. In addition, we were looking at snow, which has longer to fall than rain. Rain can form at lower levels, so there is less distance and less dry air the moisture needs to go through. Just have to monitor the 500MB level over the next 12 hours as well as moisture flow and the radar plus dewpoints.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The mean has practically doubled here from .13 to .21 QPF FWIW. Seems to reflect what the other SR models are showing.
Click to expand...

Would .2 ice accumulations cause potential power outages? The trends are a little concerning for North Ga. I have seen storms like this in the past trend much wetter within the 24 hour period and hope this isn't another one. Thankfully, the dry air might save us from seeing much ice :)
 
The CAD is already starting in Georgia.....
http://weather.uga.edu/?content=si&variable=XT&title=Air Temperature

airT.png
 
The NAM was too wet on a few runs but the short range models were closer to reality than the global models with the last storm (except the Euro which got a clue late). There was light accumulating snow in Waynesboro, about 15 miles away from me which was not depicted by any global outside of the Euro.

I'd take what the NAM says and cut it in half.
 
stormcentral said:
0.26" in half is 0.13" ice accretion
Click to expand...

But also remember that not all of the ZR accretes to the trees and power lines since a portion drips to the ground before it gets a chance to freeze but a higher % does accrete (though still not 100%) when it is falling lightly as is progged. Regardless, I see the risk for at least N GA to be much more for dangerous travel than for power outages should ZR occur as qpf isn't heavy enough for that kind of worry.
 
Last edited:
Fwiw, the 12Z Euro has substantially more qpf for N AL to the ATL area, especially NW burbs. This is obviously a big outlier, especially for the ATL area.
 
GaWx said:
Take with a humongous grain since it is a big outlier, but it has 0.50-0.55" in your area, which would be enough for power concerns.

Corey, did you by chance do some ice dancing today?
Click to expand...
That's interesting Larry. Wonder why so much? Changes at H5?
 
GaWx said:
Take with a humongous grain since it is a big outlier, but it has 0.50-0.55" in your area, which would be enough for power concerns.

Corey, did you by chance do some ice dancing today?
Click to expand...

I can't help it. I wanna see anything that is frozen. LOL. JK.....I really didn't. BTW, my area got almost 10 inches of snow during the last storm. I didn't have any socks though so it was really tough to stay out for more than a few hours. Plus my shoes were made of a paper type material so my feet were always wet. But, I actually don't want any ice in reality. The concept seems exciting, but really I dont want any ice. Nothing but problems.
 
Just read FFC AFD ... WW Advisory sounds like it is going to be expanded. South to Heard Cty., across south metro then up I-85 through Banks and Jackson counties.

—30–


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I’ve seen it forecasted not to get to lagrange but many times it does... i will be cking radars for sure. Again... reason is because wedge verifies stronger than models picked up on..
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
I’ve seen it forecasted not to get to lagrange but many times it does... i will be cking radars for sure. Again... reason is because wedge verifies stronger than models picked up on..
Click to expand...

Lagrange is always a surprise with wedge situations. They are never in the forecast yet half the time they end up getting ice lol. It's the literal "wedge cutoff" in many CAD events.
 
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