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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

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The thing that sticks out the most on the CMC is how our HP is well OTS at hr 84 and GA is still getting slammed with ice. Just goes to show the true potential of what could happen if the precip gets in here fast enough.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The thing that sticks out the most on the CMC is how our HP is well OTS at hr 84 and GA is still getting slammed with ice. Just goes to show the true potential of what could happen if the precip gets in here fast enough.
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Went back and looked. Both models have precip arriving about the same time (CMC maybe a hair faster) 2m temps on CMC are just much colder
 
So who's more believable? The GFS running warm or the CMC running cold?
 
Clown map. Similar one was posted for the Dec 27-29 event early on, which turned out to be nothing at all. It's the weather and anything can happen, and probably will this far out. Doubt that ice map comes close to verifying. Pray to god it doesn't!!!
 
tractor girl said:
Clown map. Similar one was posted for the Dec 27-29 event early on, which turned out to be nothing at all. It's the weather and anything can happen, and probably will this far out. Doubt that ice map comes close to verifying. Pray to god it doesn't!!!
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The Canadian has been insistent (even it's ensembles, along with GEFS ensembles). We are much closer to this "ice" thing, than we were during those other storm runs.
 
Cmc tends to do a better in wedges. But it's solution looks odd NAM had a closed ULL. Lol
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Didn't someone say the GFS struggles to correctly depict CAD before we mostly lost the 27-29th storm?
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It is a long running belief with general historical reference the globals particularly the GFS and Euro struggle more so than NAM and CMC, the reason the last event 27th failed was not due to temp or CAD and more then high pressure that suppressed that system to oblivion won't have that problem this time it's all timing and just how cold lays in place
 
To go with the above, the GEFS Control member is anchoring that high in about like the 84 hour NAM had.
 
You have gfs @ cmc both open vort getting moisture in here about same time. Cmc holds cold in longer and history says would be correct way more than gfs. Seen to many cad situations like this.

Then you have the nam closing the vort and will most likely fizzle or ride down into gom. In this camp ukie 0z is a smash or squash job as well. Both would not get moisture in NC cad areas in time or at all imo.
 
The German squashes it also.
 
malak05 said:
It is a long running belief with general historical reference the globals particularly the GFS and Euro struggle more so than NAM and CMC, the reason the last event 27th failed was not due to temp or CAD and more then high pressure that suppressed that system to oblivion won't have that problem this time it's all timing and just how cold lays in place
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I'm well aware of why we lost that other storm, I was just asking for clarification to make sure I was right about models underestimating temps.
 
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