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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Clayton Reid said:
Yeah, looking at the soundings, current temps, dew points, dryness in the mid levels and surface, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some of us in the ATL start of as snow briefly actually. Not to mention evaporative cooling in the mid levels and surface that would drop temps even more aloft and at the surface. So snow at onset is not out of the realm of possibility.
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I certainly wouldn't rule out a brief period of snow if precip gets heavy enough.
 
3K NAM trends over last 4 runs.
d106b01c0e91709017269382fbe7b33c.gif


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EastAtlwx said:
The NAM is concerning... instead of breaking of precipitation field it keep it intact longer...
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Even the changeover to rain is delayed a couple of hours in ATL. 18z was around 18z Monday, 00z run is around 21z Monday.

EDITED
 
a27bb21e47c3ea10812ab59092cfe909.jpg

It’s of interest to see precip appears to try to breaking out as the wedge wall is being hit.


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Temps falling. Now 31. Curious where it levels out. Can't believe we have a cut off low, some cold air in place, and some rain moving in, and can't get sleet and snow out of it. That's the thing about patterns in the south...they don't mean squat for the majority of us, lol. Oh, some one gets lucky, but most of us cry. Unless it's zr....then, of course, it's easy to find...when you don't want it at all :)
 
Radar looks stout back into Miss. Here in upstate temp is tumbling, may hit teens by midnight. 23 now

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Xtreme Weather said:
mPing report in NE Etowah county of ZR already so if true precip already reaching the ground in AL

I would encourage if want and would like to register it is easy and you get to report your observations/conditions of what weather you are seeing (ground truth) vs radar (it has an app as well)
https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov
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So as I suspected this scattered precip in E. AL is reaching the ground.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FFC-N0Q-1-48

EDIT: I downloaded that mPING app, I'm gonna make sure to use it to send in my weather obs. If you see a yellow x ITP of Atlanta, that's me I tested it not too long ago from my phone.
 
stormcentral said:
Salt and brine everywhere. Hovering near Freezing from Chattanooga to near Cleveland and falling. Moisture streaming northeast
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I'm in Ooltewah. The nearest Wunderground reading in the area is 34* in Flagstone and there are a few others hovering at 32* and 33*. It's currently 34* and cloudy at our house. I'm looking for the temp to drop to 31* once the precip starts and maybe hover at 31*-32* for several hours. If we manage to stay at or just below freezing and have several hours of light rain the roads will probably get pretty nasty around here until early afternoon.

I noticed just west of us Huntsville is in the lower 40's so the southern flow is making it's presence known. If the cold air is partially trapped it could fight off the WAA for awhile. I'm just going to chill out and see what transpires. I don't return to work until Wednesday. We had a pretty sweet winter shutdown at VW. Been off since lunch on December 20th. I could get used to this!
 
^ Regarding the 0Z Euro, the lack of ZR in most of N GA is not for the lack of qpf as it still is as high as 0.50" parts of ATL metro. It is only because the Euro has temperatures warming above 32 for the bulk of the precip. Is that correct? I don't know. It does have a bit of a warm bias at 2m.

Regardless of amounts, all it takes is a thin glaze and roads could become treacherous.
 
New NAM coming in, really drops the cold out fast. There is precipitation, but after a very quick run through Northern GA and light stuff in Upstate as ZR, its rain. Maybe worse for GA/AL border.
 
Okay, so far, New NAM much lighter vs 00z for most areas.
 
New NAM:
NEW.png



00z NAM:
OLD.png
 
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