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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Tarheelwx said:
This isn’t the North Pole Jimmy. Maybe a few inches though.
TW
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I checked the UGA site for soil temps and basicly everything roughly north of the " Fall Line" was near or below freezing at the 2" and 4" depths. So with limited solar heating anything that falls will glaze/stick until WAA takes over. . Personally glad that moisture is limited with this.
 
Radar returns look awfully impressive to our west... I’m not sure what to think about that. I would guess it could increase WAA. If it doesn’t there could be more widespread freezing rain problems.
 
The NAM is pretty impressive. Ice in upstate at 10am with temps in upper 20s. This may turn out to be something here.

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Even if it's overdoing it, which it probably is, the NAM is pretty not good ice wise. It'll be interesting to see the ice maps.
 
As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.

Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.
 
ForsythSnow said:
As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.

Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.
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Well stated


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Avalanche said:
I take it this storm system is a non issue in the triad and triangle areas of nc?
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Yes, if anything makes it there, would be late afternoon, and too warm
 
ForsythSnow said:
As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.

Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.
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Yeah, looking at the soundings, current temps, dew points, dryness in the mid levels and surface, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some of us in the ATL start of as snow briefly actually. Not to mention evaporative cooling in the mid levels and surface that would drop temps even more aloft and at the surface. So snow at onset is not out of the realm of possibility.
 
Whats concerning to me here in the upstate is im already sitting at 27° if we were to get a decent batch of moisture in here every bit of it will be frozen or freeze on contact and if its heavy enough would lock these temps in for a while. We are under a WWA and it very well could be in play here

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From the NAM... This a tough one call but some ZR certainly seems possible in parts of TN, AL and GA

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