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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Shawn said:
CLT SREF is < 10%
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Several high res models are showing some light ZR and freezing drizzle over the Triad and/or Charlotte, and I personally can't remember a time where a CAD event has underperformed nor do I think the SREF is reliable at all... Also given how cold it has been of late if there's any precip it's going to cause issues on major roadways, even if we see only several hundredths of an inch of precip. They should pull out the advisories anyway if nothing happens big deal but if they say nothing and we end up with even 0.05-0.1" of ZR it's going to stick to everything even treated roadways
 
What is timing look like in winston Salem area? We have to pre treat if an advisory is issued
 
Webberweather53 said:
Several high res models are showing some light ZR and freezing drizzle over the Triad and/or Charlotte, and I personally can't remember a time where a CAD event has underperformed nor do I think the SREF is reliable at all... Also given how cold it has been of late if there's any precip it's going to cause issues on major roadways, even if we see only several hundredths of an inch of precip. They should pull out the advisories anyway if nothing happens big deal but if they say nothing and we end up with even 0.05-0.1" of ZR it's going to stick to everything even treated roadways
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Well my local office is using the SREF and keeping WWA/mention of ZR out of the forecast. Spotty at best the further East you go, imo barring some last minute changes.
 
1300m said:
Amen. NWS has gone ultra conservative in their issuance of advisories lately (mainly speaking of NWS-RAH but perhaps it is across the board?) and it has bit them in the rear quite a few times. A few hundredths of precipitation will be an absolute disaster for an unsuspecting public. It'll literally be the hundredth of an inch disaster.
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Here it wouldn't be a big deal if the advisory didn't verify because it's freezing drizzle or light freezing rain but I agree this could be a disaster if there's even 0.1" or slightly less ZR because of how unusually cold we've been of late. Temps falling into the single digits the last several nights turns the ground into a block of ice
 
Shawn said:
Well my local office is using the SREF and keeping WWA/mention of ZR out of the forecast. Spotty at best the further East you go, imo barring some last minute changes.
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Sounds like they’re searching for what is showing the least. I can promise you if it was showing .10-.25 of ice they wouldn’t be using it. It’s horrendous.
 
000
FXUS62 KCAE 071938
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
238 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The models continue to indicate just shallow moisture in a low-
level onshore flow with more significant moisture and lift
associated with the upper trough staying south of the forecast
area over the Gulf Coast and Florida Region. Lift associated
with a northern stream system is also forecast to stay north of
the area Monday and Monday night. The guidance is in good
agreement with just low pops and little or no qpf. The chance
of freezing rain is still too low to include in the forecast.
The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS keep temperatures above freezing.
Believe any precipitation will hold off until well in the
afternoon and be light with limited evaporative cooling
potential. The SREF guidance has been consistent indicating the
chance of measurable freezing rain less than 10 percent.
Followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature
forecast. Readings should finally remain above freezing for the
first time since just after Christmas. Cloudiness favored the
lower high temperature guidance.
 
Shawn said:
000
FXUS62 KCAE 071938
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
238 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The models continue to indicate just shallow moisture in a low-
level onshore flow with more significant moisture and lift
associated with the upper trough staying south of the forecast
area over the Gulf Coast and Florida Region. Lift associated
with a northern stream system is also forecast to stay north of
the area Monday and Monday night. The guidance is in good
agreement with just low pops and little or no qpf. The chance
of freezing rain is still too low to include in the forecast.
The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS keep temperatures above freezing.
Believe any precipitation will hold off until well in the
afternoon and be light with limited evaporative cooling
potential. The SREF guidance has been consistent indicating the
chance of measurable freezing rain less than 10 percent.
Followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature
forecast. Readings should finally remain above freezing for the
first time since just after Christmas. Cloudiness favored the
lower high temperature guidance.
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I feel worse after seeing it for myself.
 
Air Temperature (°F) for Jan 07 05:47 PM
Dropping rapidly...
airT.png
 
I don't think anything is going to fall until evening if at all tomorrow in the CAE NWS area but why use the SREF lol?

The short-rangers are for a better put, concerning though for the CAD areas and places like Southeast Tennessee.
 
I just got home from work half an hour ago and I see were under a WWA. I knew it was inevitable that it would be extended into the metro area. It was just a matter of two reasons: 1 - the threat for ice has gotten more serious since last night's models or 2 - it's more out of precaution for tomorrow, not just for the game, but several schools (including Atlanta) are supposed to be going back in session tomorrow from Winter Break. Pretty sure it's balanced mix of both scenarios from what I've caught up and read in this thread today.
 
Our county is apparently taking the threat serious or they are scared from sending the kids to school when we got the foot of snow. Got the call that Paulding county schools are closed tomorrow
 
SoutheastRidge said:
For a light glazing of ice ?
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Quite a few metro counties have now closed for tomorrow. Good call in my opinion. Roads have pretty much been exposed to freezing air consistently since 1/1. Any precipitation that’s falls is going to be ice on contact. Even a small amount is going to cause chaos on backroads especially that aren’t treated.


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It’s back down to 31 here now. East wind just started blowing gusting to around 10. DP is actually 14 this hour.


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Tarheelwx said:
This isn’t the North Pole Jimmy. Maybe a few inches though.
TW
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I checked the UGA site for soil temps and basicly everything roughly north of the " Fall Line" was near or below freezing at the 2" and 4" depths. So with limited solar heating anything that falls will glaze/stick until WAA takes over. . Personally glad that moisture is limited with this.
 
Radar returns look awfully impressive to our west... I’m not sure what to think about that. I would guess it could increase WAA. If it doesn’t there could be more widespread freezing rain problems.
 
The NAM is pretty impressive. Ice in upstate at 10am with temps in upper 20s. This may turn out to be something here.

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Even if it's overdoing it, which it probably is, the NAM is pretty not good ice wise. It'll be interesting to see the ice maps.
 
As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.

Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.
 
ForsythSnow said:
As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.

Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.
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Well stated


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Avalanche said:
I take it this storm system is a non issue in the triad and triangle areas of nc?
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Yes, if anything makes it there, would be late afternoon, and too warm
 
ForsythSnow said:
As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.

Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.
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Yeah, looking at the soundings, current temps, dew points, dryness in the mid levels and surface, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some of us in the ATL start of as snow briefly actually. Not to mention evaporative cooling in the mid levels and surface that would drop temps even more aloft and at the surface. So snow at onset is not out of the realm of possibility.
 
Whats concerning to me here in the upstate is im already sitting at 27° if we were to get a decent batch of moisture in here every bit of it will be frozen or freeze on contact and if its heavy enough would lock these temps in for a while. We are under a WWA and it very well could be in play here

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