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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

I'm sure throughout the year a system will " over perform " by .1 of an inch many times. If it happens in late spring or summer time it won't even be noticed. But if we have a model drying this up over NE Alabama and we do actually wind up with .1 of an inch of precip. It could be life threatening. Jason Simpson a meteorologist out of Huntsville said the soil temp even at 4 inches deep was at 28 degrees. With that temp. A little ice would have a lot more impact than it normally does
 
Special weather statement for Nashville area.

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FFC is contemplating a WWA for parts of N. GA.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Forecast continues to be complicated and tricky given recent
trends of the upper trough energy cutting off more to our south,
though still a lingering shortwave influencing the TN valley and
some isentropic upglide potential along a lingering hybrid wedge
for Monday. Timing has shifted overall a bit later than previous
runs as far as when the best moisture/forcing is present in our
NW... thinking mainly after 7 AM is best chance for parts of the
NW to see some light freezing rain. Overall amounts have come down
from before (generally less than a tenth of an inch for north and
west central GA), though may not matter much since impacts with
any ice accumulation on roadways would not change much (higher
amounts would be of more impact to trees/powerlines). As far as
temps, there still looks to be a decent majority of north and
parts of central GA below the freezing mark or right around by
Monday morning...the Canadian and Nam and the coldest, though the
Nam is pretty dry and actually delays the precip until late
morning or even afternoon. The GFS still has the NW with a morning
onset (that could include the Atlanta metro). Some sounding
analysis indicates potential for a low/mid level column of
lingering drier air that saturation aloft could be battling,
otherwise some higher QPF could be a factor. Not thinking anything
warrants a Winter Storm Watch at this point, but may need a Winter
Weather Advisory for some portions in future updates as we get
closer - though likely have changes in timing/amounts. Previous
discussion follows...

Baker
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
FFC has a special weather statement issued... timing... possible hazardous travel Monday morning as cold temps in place and moisture moves in...
 
Although the outcome wasn't much different here in GA, 18z NAM slightly sped things up precipwise and it was slower (more NW) on taking that SE dive into the GOM compared to 12z.
 
Last night's 00z Canadian ensembles continue to indicate a period of freezing rain. Hard to tell how far East into the Carolinas it will make it due to 12 hour gap in frames.
 
The majority of the 12z GEFS members support freezing rain (light) into GA, especially, before turning over to rain.

I'd expect this idea to continue, and at least a Hazardous Weather Outlook from FFC.
 
Shawn said:
The majority of the 12z GEFS members support freezing rain (light) into GA, especially, before turning over to rain.

I'd expect this idea to continue, and at least a Hazardous Weather Outlook from FFC.
Click to expand...
How far east in GA?

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Shawn said:
The majority of the 12z GEFS members support freezing rain (light) into GA, especially, before turning over to rain.

I'd expect this idea to continue, and at least a Hazardous Weather Outlook from FFC.
Click to expand...

They have already gone to both hazardous outlook and a special weather statement.
 
18z GFS still showing light freezing rain across western half of GA at 12z Monday (similar to 12z). Not as suppressed as 12z either.
 
Storm5 said:
These events are no fun a brief few hours of possible winter weather then a quick warm up .

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Click to expand...
Charlie, I'm desperate! Especially knowing that James Spann country rec'd 3-400% of their average annual snowfall!
(I'm a Birmingham native BTW)
Please tell me that the I-85 corridor (GSP-CLT-RDU) will receive a respectable winter weather event this year.
 
Lostnthaweather85 said:
I'm sure throughout the year a system will " over perform " by .1 of an inch many times. If it happens in late spring or summer time it won't even be noticed. But if we have a model drying this up over NE Alabama and we do actually wind up with .1 of an inch of precip. It could be life threatening. Jason Simpson a meteorologist out of Huntsville said the soil temp even at 4 inches deep was at 28 degrees. With that temp. A little ice would have a lot more impact than it normally does
Click to expand...

Yup the Deep South learned a very valuable lesson with ice accretion and arctic air back in Jan. 2014... It is a HUGE factor and brought the South to its "knees" back then.

... Carry on
 
drfranklin said:
Charlie, I'm desperate! Especially knowing that James Spann country rec'd 3-400% of their average annual snowfall!
(I'm a Birmingham native BTW)
Please tell me that the I-85 corridor (GSP-CLT-RDU) will receive a respectable winter weather event this year.
Click to expand...
Haha I hear ya. I Hope you Can score up that way. Good news is we have a long way to go !!!
 
NAM still showing some very light precip over western parts of NC tomorrow afternoon. I suspect we'll have a heavy overcast most of the day. If so, temps will be slow to warm and surface temps in most places will be aob freezing.
TW
 
NAM looks a little drier. Funny win it was a bigger deal being modeled, we were worried about the high scooting out, but NAM keeps popping one over NGA, now that it's basically sprinkles! :(
 
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