Wintry January 7th Surprise (?) NC & VA Winter Storm

[Webberweather53]

Given that this is less than 48 hours out, we've seen consistent favorable trends on virtually NWP models (including the recent 12z operational Euro), and would be a low risk/low reward type event w/ a modest ceiling in climatologically favored areas of the board (thus low bust potential), I think it's legitimately time to fire up the thread.

It's certainly nice to have something like this keep us preoccupied for the time being while the LR pattern continues to look like ?.

The 12z Euro was a marked improvement over the 0z run for NC but still no cigar (yet).

 

[Webberweather53]

I'll likely go snow chasing towards northern NC on Tuesday morning if things continue to trend favorably the next day or so.

 

[superjames1992]

All-in. I wish I didn't have to work Tuesday so I could chase towards more favorable locations. Looks like rain most likely here... And to make matters worse I'm going to be stuck in meetings most of Tuesday.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

3km and 12km are agreeing in colder 850s, stronger low in the NE helps aswell almost acting like “mini” confluence with better CAA, couple more ticks south and areas north of CLT are in the game 3km basically supported wet snow as far south as north CLT with impressive lift in the DGZ this possible event coming up is kinda reminding me of March 2017, but the axis shifted significantly more north more towards I-40, gotta remember tho that the nam is often to happy with wintry precip around this range

 

[Ollie Williams]

EPS continues to tick further south. EPS puts Roxboro in-game now.
06z

12z

 

[superjames1992]

Maybe I'm weenieing out, but I do seem to recall modeling can overplay the warm BL temps in these scenarios and cold air can mix down provided we get good rates, allowing more snow than we might expect?

Well, my user title is a play off this, haha...

I'm so desperate for snow. It's been so freaking long and I missed several great storms while living in FL the last several years.

 

[Metwannabe]

Throw in the euro warm bias, models overplaying BL and enough time to correct south another tick or two and you guys might have a mini I-85 special

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[Ollie Williams]

From early looks, the 18z NAM seems better. Further south s/w. Further north northern stream
12z

18z

 

[Ollie Williams]

FWIW RAH not enthused

Tuesday will see the arrival of a weak shortwave trough and
associated surface low. Weak isentropic ascent ahead of this trough
will bring precip into the Triad early in the day with rain not
expected in the Triangle til after mid day. Rainfall amounts don`t
look too significant (up to a quarter of an inch near GSO/INT,
around a tenth near RDU, even less to the east), but the track of
the low could result in some in-situ CAD around the Triad. Made some
downward adjustments to high temperatures in the Triad on Tuesday
while also increasing temperatures east of US-1. Precip will end
quickly after 00Z coincident with the rapid departure of the surface
wave and stronger cold advection. Thus, wintry precipitation not
expected with this event.

 

[Ollie Williams]

From early looks, the 18z NAM seems better. Further south s/w. Further north northern stream
12z

18z

Nam another tick south puts @Poimen and @EV_WS in the game.
18z

12z

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nam another tick south puts @Poimen and @EV_WS in the game.
18z
View attachment 29735
12z
View attachment 29736

3k is a tick north, but much snowier for areas like GSO and Roxboro
12z

18z

 

[Metwannabe]

3k is a tick north, but much snowier for areas like GSO and Roxboro
12z
View attachment 29738
18z
View attachment 29739

Dang 3k almost gets some flakes to me.....ok greedy post, I need about 100 mile S/SE shift

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[KyloG]

It’s actually a nice setup with the upper low in SE Canada, and it’s a healthy wave in TN valley.

 

[Ollie Williams]

You can pretty easily tell why models (Nam in this case) have been trending further south. Notice the northern stream ULL and the S/W have
been trending more and more separated. The northern stream is in charge of bringing this system north. The less interaction between the two equals a further suppressed storm.

 

[jackendrickwx]

That's infuriatingly close

 

[Ollie Williams]

It’s actually a nice setup with the upper low in SE Canada, and it’s a healthy wave in TN valley.
View attachment 29744

If only we didn't have that low north of MN and the Dakotas.

 

[SimeonNC]

So @Webberweather53 I am assuming that we are probably on the outside looking in right?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The other short range models definitely looked like they came in much colder and would most likely of had a much more colder solution that the NAM

 

[John1122]

The 3K NAM drops 3-5 inches in my area, so obviously hoping it's onto something, even with overamping NAM issues I'd happily take 50 percent of what's being shown. Other models have me close to the edge, so hopefully they trend closer in the next 24 hours.

 

[pcbjr]

Really hope this is not a misplaced "banter" post, but watching from afar, I truly hope y'all get something worthwhile up there ... looks like a good shot in any event ...