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Wintry January 7th Surprise (?) NC & VA Winter Storm

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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Desert Southwest ?
Given that this is less than 48 hours out, we've seen consistent favorable trends on virtually NWP models (including the recent 12z operational Euro), and would be a low risk/low reward type event w/ a modest ceiling in climatologically favored areas of the board (thus low bust potential), I think it's legitimately time to fire up the thread.

It's certainly nice to have something like this keep us preoccupied for the time being while the LR pattern continues to look like ?.

The 12z Euro was a marked improvement over the 0z run for NC but still no cigar (yet).

download (18).png

download (17).png
 
All-in. I wish I didn't have to work Tuesday so I could chase towards more favorable locations. Looks like rain most likely here... And to make matters worse I'm going to be stuck in meetings most of Tuesday. :(
 
3km and 12km are agreeing in colder 850s, stronger low in the NE helps aswell almost acting like “mini” confluence with better CAA, couple more ticks south and areas north of CLT are in the game 89DA132A-2653-42DE-B91E-BFED84BEBBDA.gifC1F3D92C-A859-4776-8B7C-0BAA8A24E9D4.gif3km basically supported wet snow as far south as north CLT with impressive lift in the DGZ 0596EC79-B08E-4B58-8B27-035BC9B4CE0E.pngthis possible event coming up is kinda reminding me of March 2017, but the axis shifted significantly more north more towards I-40, gotta remember tho that the nam is often to happy with wintry precip around this range
 
Maybe I'm weenieing out, but I do seem to recall modeling can overplay the warm BL temps in these scenarios and cold air can mix down provided we get good rates, allowing more snow than we might expect?

Well, my user title is a play off this, haha...

I'm so desperate for snow. It's been so freaking long and I missed several great storms while living in FL the last several years. :(
 
From early looks, the 18z NAM seems better. Further south s/w. Further north northern stream
12z
namconus_z500a_us_34.png

18z
namconus_z500a_us_28.png
 
FWIW RAH not enthused
Code: 
Tuesday will see the arrival of a weak shortwave trough and
associated surface low. Weak isentropic ascent ahead of this trough
will bring precip into the Triad early in the day with rain not
expected in the Triangle til after mid day. Rainfall amounts don`t
look too significant (up to a quarter of an inch near GSO/INT,
around a tenth near RDU, even less to the east), but the track of
the low could result in some in-situ CAD around the Triad. Made some
downward adjustments to high temperatures in the Triad on Tuesday
while also increasing temperatures east of US-1. Precip will end
quickly after 00Z coincident with the rapid departure of the surface
wave and stronger cold advection. Thus, wintry precipitation not
expected with this event.
 
You can pretty easily tell why models (Nam in this case) have been trending further south. Notice the northern stream ULL and the S/W have
been trending more and more separated. The northern stream is in charge of bringing this system north. The less interaction between the two equals a further suppressed storm.
Nam model - Copy.png
namconus_z500a_us_fh51_trend.gif
 
The other short range models definitely looked like they came in much colder and would most likely of had a much more colder solution that the NAM
 
Will downsloping be an issue in the foothills and W Piedmont? Seems like it would be to me given the orientation of it, but I may be wrong. I haven't studied it too closely yet.

Further east, that won't be as much of an issue, except we'll be torching so it may not matter.
 
Roxboro to maybe far south as Wilkesboro. I’m not buying snow further south near Charlotte-Mooresville. And timing is critical for Winston/GSO, if it’s late could be cold rain while places like Yadkinville sees morning snow. Too far out to know.
 
Heres my first call map, light gray areas in my opinion rn have a decent shot at seeing a few snowflakes/sleet pellets, especially the further northern areas in that lighter grey shade, then in that darker grey shade in my opinion I think those areas have a better/likely shot at seeing snow/IP and perhaps a dusting, then the blue areas have the best shot at seeing over a dusting, that black circle represents where there could be a qpf minimum from subsidence 0BB0EF1E-0904-4FBD-A157-203A2591151D.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Heres my first call map, light gray areas in my opinion rn have a decent shot at seeing a few snowflakes/sleet pellets, especially the further northern areas in that lighter grey shade, then in that darker grey shade in my opinion I think those areas have a better/likely shot at seeing snow/IP and perhaps a dusting, then the blue areas have the best shot at seeing over a dusting, that black circle represents where there could be a qpf minimum from subsidence View attachment 29751
Click to expand...
Good luck ... takes moxie to go out on a limb ... I can't even call a dog in the front door ... ;)
 
No map from me for this one but I think north of 40 and west of i77 could see a dusting locally to 1” esp mtns. Outside of this area (namely Winston north) could see snow but no accum.
 
If I was chasing I would consider Appalachian State University. 1-3” there looks solid and maybe more in the higher peaks.
 
Reason I went for maybe a few IP pellets/snowflakes even north of CLT is Becuase the initial surface/low level airmass will be dry with a nice dry layer all the way up to around 800-850mb supporting soundings that would WB to initially support SN/IP right on the 0C line 494A810C-38B3-404D-9DB5-C185960DB969.png3A6CEE31-2B62-4F3F-B7F3-9028A3728766.png
 
Another thing is that while many are looking at this as a light snow/rain event, there could even be some Quick moderate/heavy snow with this as both NAMs suggest once it starts snowing for areas that there will be some excellent lift in the DGZ, and a pocket of solid 850mb Frontogenesis, which suggests a mini thump 0A40BC75-A26A-4939-BF4E-13D60A1A77B2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Reason I went for maybe a few IP pellets/snowflakes even north of CLT is Becuase the initial surface/low level airmass will be dry with a nice dry layer all the way up to around 800-850mb supporting soundings that would WB to initially support SN/IP right on the 0C line View attachment 29752View attachment 29753
Click to expand...

yeah I was going to say, many of these setups w/ low-level dry air like that even coupled to WAA often start out as at least sleet/rain mix
 
Didn’t see it mentioned but those who do see accumulating snow will likely see blowing snow overnight. Trees will quickly lose their snow and additional snow will land in roadways etc. Blowing snow is a bit uncommon below 3,000ft so worth mentioning for this event.
 
Really not far off for some ground blizzard conditions eastern Watauga into a slither of Ashe County NC. Something to be mindful of if considering chasing. Virginia included, awful visibility that night likely lingering into the next day. See the NAM for details.
 
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