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January 7th Surprise (?) NC & VA Winter Storm

Myfrotho704_

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Reason I went for maybe a few IP pellets/snowflakes even north of CLT is Becuase the initial surface/low level airmass will be dry with a nice dry layer all the way up to around 800-850mb supporting soundings that would WB to initially support SN/IP right on the 0C line 494A810C-38B3-404D-9DB5-C185960DB969.png 3A6CEE31-2B62-4F3F-B7F3-9028A3728766.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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Another thing is that while many are looking at this as a light snow/rain event, there could even be some Quick moderate/heavy snow with this as both NAMs suggest once it starts snowing for areas that there will be some excellent lift in the DGZ, and a pocket of solid 850mb Frontogenesis, which suggests a mini thump 0A40BC75-A26A-4939-BF4E-13D60A1A77B2.png
 

Webberweather53

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Reason I went for maybe a few IP pellets/snowflakes even north of CLT is Becuase the initial surface/low level airmass will be dry with a nice dry layer all the way up to around 800-850mb supporting soundings that would WB to initially support SN/IP right on the 0C line View attachment 29752View attachment 29753
yeah I was going to say, many of these setups w/ low-level dry air like that even coupled to WAA often start out as at least sleet/rain mix
 

BirdManDoomW

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Didn’t see it mentioned but those who do see accumulating snow will likely see blowing snow overnight. Trees will quickly lose their snow and additional snow will land in roadways etc. Blowing snow is a bit uncommon below 3,000ft so worth mentioning for this event.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Really not far off for some ground blizzard conditions eastern Watauga into a slither of Ashe County NC. Something to be mindful of if considering chasing. Virginia included, awful visibility that night likely lingering into the next day. See the NAM for details.
 

John1122

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I've noticed from looking at soundings on several models besides the NAM that are showing rain imby, that the soundings look much more supportive of snow. Not sure if the models generally try to show rain everywhere the surface temp is above freezing or what. The RGEM shows rain on the map at hour 36 for instance, but the temp is 35 at the surface, dp is 32, 850 is -4 to -5c. Best guess precip type says snow on the sounding. On one of the models the 850 is -4, the 925 is 0c, the 534 thickness line is to my south, and the surface temp is 35-36 but it snows rain on the precip-type map.
 

Nomanslandva

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It's a shame because it really is looking like a nice compact, potent little system... @Nomanslandva might be in a good spot

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Yea, we had all of the south trends that gave me hope but look like a little north trend may have come back and there is not much room for that. Local news talking about first measurable. We'll see.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Need the storm to hit around 3am not lunch time for a surprise 1” or so in Surry/Wilkes. Otherwise it’s a MTN only event.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Where it does snow (likely Boone, Jefferson and Sparta) it’s going to be moderate to heavy given what I’ve seen on the models. A quick thumping of snow. HWO is out for Yadkin, Surry and Wilkes where a impact based winter weather advisory may be needed despite not making official criteria.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Alleghany County NC schools went with a 2hour delay. I don’t agree with that they should have let the kids go before snow starts sticking not during. Guess they did it just so they have a reason to close. I’ll be calling Raleigh tomorrow.
 

Cad Wedge NC

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Alleghany County NC schools went with a 2hour delay. I don’t agree with that they should have let the kids go before snow starts sticking not during. Guess they did it just so they have a reason to close. I’ll be calling Raleigh tomorrow.
The reason for the delay is to see whether or not winter weather will develop as predicted.... not just so they can close. They won't let the buses run if winter weather is occurring. Let me know how that conversation with Raleigh works out for you... lol. Meanwhile it is 36 degrees with a dew point of 28. Some good radiational cooling taking place right now.
 

Fountainguy97

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So it probably won’t matter but my temp is WAY lower than hrrr or 3km.

hrrr is 35 and Nam is 38

but I’m sitting at a cold 30.2 and rapidly falling.

NWS forecasted low is 35.... already 5 below...
 
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BirdManDoomW

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If precip magically arrives 6-8 hours quicker then most of the mtns will be in play maybe Surry/Wilkes too. Current temps don’t matter.
 
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