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Wintry January 7th Surprise (?) NC & VA Winter Storm

Will downsloping be an issue in the foothills and W Piedmont? Seems like it would be to me given the orientation of it, but I may be wrong. I haven't studied it too closely yet.

Further east, that won't be as much of an issue, except we'll be torching so it may not matter.
 
Roxboro to maybe far south as Wilkesboro. I’m not buying snow further south near Charlotte-Mooresville. And timing is critical for Winston/GSO, if it’s late could be cold rain while places like Yadkinville sees morning snow. Too far out to know.
 
Heres my first call map, light gray areas in my opinion rn have a decent shot at seeing a few snowflakes/sleet pellets, especially the further northern areas in that lighter grey shade, then in that darker grey shade in my opinion I think those areas have a better/likely shot at seeing snow/IP and perhaps a dusting, then the blue areas have the best shot at seeing over a dusting, that black circle represents where there could be a qpf minimum from subsidence 0BB0EF1E-0904-4FBD-A157-203A2591151D.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Heres my first call map, light gray areas in my opinion rn have a decent shot at seeing a few snowflakes/sleet pellets, especially the further northern areas in that lighter grey shade, then in that darker grey shade in my opinion I think those areas have a better/likely shot at seeing snow/IP and perhaps a dusting, then the blue areas have the best shot at seeing over a dusting, that black circle represents where there could be a qpf minimum from subsidence View attachment 29751
Click to expand...
Good luck ... takes moxie to go out on a limb ... I can't even call a dog in the front door ... ;)
 
No map from me for this one but I think north of 40 and west of i77 could see a dusting locally to 1” esp mtns. Outside of this area (namely Winston north) could see snow but no accum.
 
If I was chasing I would consider Appalachian State University. 1-3” there looks solid and maybe more in the higher peaks.
 
Reason I went for maybe a few IP pellets/snowflakes even north of CLT is Becuase the initial surface/low level airmass will be dry with a nice dry layer all the way up to around 800-850mb supporting soundings that would WB to initially support SN/IP right on the 0C line 494A810C-38B3-404D-9DB5-C185960DB969.png3A6CEE31-2B62-4F3F-B7F3-9028A3728766.png
 
Another thing is that while many are looking at this as a light snow/rain event, there could even be some Quick moderate/heavy snow with this as both NAMs suggest once it starts snowing for areas that there will be some excellent lift in the DGZ, and a pocket of solid 850mb Frontogenesis, which suggests a mini thump 0A40BC75-A26A-4939-BF4E-13D60A1A77B2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Reason I went for maybe a few IP pellets/snowflakes even north of CLT is Becuase the initial surface/low level airmass will be dry with a nice dry layer all the way up to around 800-850mb supporting soundings that would WB to initially support SN/IP right on the 0C line View attachment 29752View attachment 29753
Click to expand...

yeah I was going to say, many of these setups w/ low-level dry air like that even coupled to WAA often start out as at least sleet/rain mix
 
Didn’t see it mentioned but those who do see accumulating snow will likely see blowing snow overnight. Trees will quickly lose their snow and additional snow will land in roadways etc. Blowing snow is a bit uncommon below 3,000ft so worth mentioning for this event.
 
Really not far off for some ground blizzard conditions eastern Watauga into a slither of Ashe County NC. Something to be mindful of if considering chasing. Virginia included, awful visibility that night likely lingering into the next day. See the NAM for details.
 
Probably just my eyes playing tricks but early on is our energy a touch south, keeping the trend going..... #grasping
34accd15b6822f80dd3041c1eb003d5d.gif


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