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Wintry January 7th Surprise (?) NC & VA Winter Storm

Heck I dint think 3k was all that bad or diffrent for mtns NW Piedmont areas.
 
I've noticed from looking at soundings on several models besides the NAM that are showing rain imby, that the soundings look much more supportive of snow. Not sure if the models generally try to show rain everywhere the surface temp is above freezing or what. The RGEM shows rain on the map at hour 36 for instance, but the temp is 35 at the surface, dp is 32, 850 is -4 to -5c. Best guess precip type says snow on the sounding. On one of the models the 850 is -4, the 925 is 0c, the 534 thickness line is to my south, and the surface temp is 35-36 but it snows rain on the precip-type map.
 
metwannabe said:
It's a shame because it really is looking like a nice compact, potent little system... @Nomanslandva might be in a good spot

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Yea, we had all of the south trends that gave me hope but look like a little north trend may have come back and there is not much room for that. Local news talking about first measurable. We'll see.
 
Need the storm to hit around 3am not lunch time for a surprise 1” or so in Surry/Wilkes. Otherwise it’s a MTN only event.
 
Where it does snow (likely Boone, Jefferson and Sparta) it’s going to be moderate to heavy given what I’ve seen on the models. A quick thumping of snow. HWO is out for Yadkin, Surry and Wilkes where a impact based winter weather advisory may be needed despite not making official criteria.
 
NWS also mentioning high wind warnings may be needed for Tuesday/Wednesday.
 
Alleghany County NC schools went with a 2hour delay. I don’t agree with that they should have let the kids go before snow starts sticking not during. Guess they did it just so they have a reason to close. I’ll be calling Raleigh tomorrow.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Alleghany County NC schools went with a 2hour delay. I don’t agree with that they should have let the kids go before snow starts sticking not during. Guess they did it just so they have a reason to close. I’ll be calling Raleigh tomorrow.
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The reason for the delay is to see whether or not winter weather will develop as predicted.... not just so they can close. They won't let the buses run if winter weather is occurring. Let me know how that conversation with Raleigh works out for you... lol. Meanwhile it is 36 degrees with a dew point of 28. Some good radiational cooling taking place right now.
 
So it probably won’t matter but my temp is WAY lower than hrrr or 3km.

hrrr is 35 and Nam is 38

but I’m sitting at a cold 30.2 and rapidly falling.

NWS forecasted low is 35.... already 5 below...
 
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not that its gonna matter for me but my forcast low is 39 im sitting at 40 already
 
If precip magically arrives 6-8 hours quicker then most of the mtns will be in play maybe Surry/Wilkes too. Current temps don’t matter.
 
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