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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

It's good to at least see some potential on the map for next week, especially for the more southern regions of the forum. I look forward to Larry's and Stormsfury's input as they both have done admirable jobs in the past forecasting wintry weather for those of us in the less snow-prone region. Delta's and Webber's input from the professional side of things will be needed as well (1300m, too!). Even though a board-wide storm is preferable, let's see if this one turns out to be a deep South special! Would love to see Tony get several inches of sleet as well, although it looks like the cold push might keep a mix off the table. I truly appreciate all of the PBP on the model runs. There's definitely a lot of wisdom on this Board from both professionals and amateurs alike :) Let's see it today's model runs brings a broader consensus.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS has been trending in the wrong direction w/ the Pacific NW s/w at day 2-3 of late (which was related to our New Years threat). We should be more concerned about this next storm in early January getting suppressed into oblivion instead of trending NW on us at the last minute because as long as there's a big vortex over SE Canada and New England which refuses to move out of the way, you're not going to see a low pull into the Apps or interior northeast.
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I don't know which way it will miss me, either west or east all I know is I'm in the dagblasted bulls-eye yet again on a euro 6-7 day map....

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Lol pathetic
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Webber is right, worry about extreme suppression on the storm after New Years with S. Ala., Southern Ga to SE NC/SC being the only ones to get wintry precip. Those North possibly and West of 95 ( even 50-100 miles East of 95) might see some token flakes
 
First time in several runs the s/w wasn't trending north/weaker on the GFS at day 2 in the Pacific NW, and yes out system at day 4 looks pretty decent over Montana, just would be nice if we got something to come into California instead of the Pacific NW and the Northern Rockies because unless we're in a highly amplified pattern we're going to keep getting dry, northwesterly flow with systems like this... Hopefully the gyre over SE Canada momentarily lifts and gives us at least a fighting chance
 
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