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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

93Storm said:
That long wave that you see won't be the storm system. There will be another wave coming down from Canada, and if there's a phase, the two pieces of energy will "fire" up a strong low pressure system some where off the east coast. Explosive cyclogensis.
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Honestly that's likely not going to happen. The Euro is phase happy which is why it got close a few times. The last run was a trend away from it.
 
  • The ECMWF and UKMET phase northern and southern stream short wave energy too readily over the entire forecast domain. (This is more true of the UKMET) Correction: Maintain separate streams unless the longwave pattern and trends from the short range models clearly support phasing. The longwave pattern may support phasing on days 4-5 if both the northern and southern stream flows are fairly high in amplitude and fit the mean upper pattern. Don't rely on the speed of an individual short wave. This can be a major correction that often makes you decide the fate of a major storm.
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Storm5 said:
Lol dog poop
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Ridge is way to far east. No hope if the western ridge sets up there.
 
Robert West said:
Yeh i definitely didn't see any good signs for the mid week storm. Maybe some good signs for the already dead NYE NYD storm. We already know what the Euro will do. Yall mise well get some sleep and look at it in the morning.
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I mean the Euro didn't exactly shut things down last night, wasn't good today but I don't think it's a given that the Euro is going to be horrible.
 
I think I just figured out why the CMC and Euro had storms at first in the first place. Because it actually had a late-ish phase in a period in which it's very phase happy. Like I said it seemed like the Euro trended away from the phase in the last run. So I'd be prepared for the Euro to drop the storm completely and make this another "It's kaput" situation late tonight unfortunately.
 
Congrats to Phil on getting ZR on 1/3 on the 0Z CMC! That's the kind of thing that can happen in a pattern like this.
 
All along I think the consensus has been it's all or nothing here. I will take the euro on the evolution of this overnany model, but I know the euro can easily trend towards the progressive models too. Cmc and gfs
 
deltadog03 said:
All along I think the consensus has been it's all or nothing here. I will take the euro on the evolution of this overnany model, but I know the euro can easily trend towards the progressive models too. Cmc and gfs
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Right, like I said, it's not a given that the Euro will kill this.
 
These crappy runs thus far aren't too much of a surprise, you aren't going to have much, if any moisture to work with if the s/w that's supposed to initiate the wintry weather is only serving to reinforce the dry northwesterly flow that's dominating areas east of the Rockies. Like I said earlier, while we can score w/ a shortwave that drops out of the N Rockies, we would need blocking somewhere immediately upstream over the Canadian arctic and Greenland to create a traffic jam in the atmosphere over east-central North America to slow the longwaves down and allow the accompanying surface low to quickly veer up the eastern seaboard and mutually amplify the mid-upper level wave. Since we don't have that atm, we need something that's already in the southern branch of the jet which doesn't have to dig southward so we can get southwesterly flow aloft right away, hence a s/w into California would be optimal. The eastern Carolinas stands the best chance to get anything out of a pattern like this (coastal GA & northern FL if it's cold enough), however chances aren't all that great to begin with
 
Upper level trough lurking off the California coast by day 9. Need this puppy to come onshore and push eastward into the four corners to give us a chance for a board-wide event because if this pattern continues to persist, we'll probably have a decent amount of cold air to work with. There's a little light and hope at the end of the tunnel
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Webberweather53 said:
Upper level trough lurking off the California coast by day 9. Need this puppy to come onshore and push eastward into the four corners to give us a chance for a board-wide event because if this pattern continues to persist, we'll probably have a decent amount of cold air to work with. There's a little light and hope at the end of the tunnel
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I saw that too Eric. But let's be realistic, do you really think the cold can KEEP holding on like this to wait for that system? Probably not. It may be all rain by the time it gets here. I just don't see us being that lucky. It would be a MIRACLE if we kept the cold THAT long to be a winter storm by the time that thing got here. Gotta be realistic. We rarely, if ever stay cold that long in the South. Not trying to be negative but it'll probably be too late by the time that gets here. Any objections? If we actually stay cold that long for the shortwave from California to make it here in time, I will stand corrected, but as of right now that seems far fetch, especially since we know we can't get rid of the SER too long... We're just kicking the can at this point and continuing this wild goose chase. Again, not being negative, but just trying to be objective
 
Clayton Reid said:
I saw that too Eric. But let's be realistic, do you really think the cold can KEEP holding on like this to wait for that system? Probably not. It may be all rain by the time it gets here. I just don't see us being that lucky. It would be a MIRACLE if we kept the cold THAT long to be a winter storm by the time that thing got here. Gotta be realistic. We rarely, if ever stay cold that long in the South. Not trying to be negative but it'll probably be too late by the time that gets here. Any objections?
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Ugh, we've already discussed this, do I really have to explain this again... Ok yes, the cold air mass that's in place at the time this trough moves onshore California may not still be here, but in case you weren't aware already, there are seemingly incessant reinforcements with an active northern stream will likely replenish what we lost and drive another arctic airmass into our neck of the woods before that trough got here. We have absolutely NO CHANCE atm to get a **"major board wide event" (Texas to the Carolinas)** with the pattern we have now with dry northwesterly flow suppressing everything well offshore the SE US, this gives us a chance, however small it may seem to be.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I saw that too Eric. But let's be realistic, do you really think the cold can KEEP holding on like this to wait for that system? Probably not. It may be all rain by the time it gets here. I just don't see us being that lucky. It would be a MIRACLE if we kept the cold THAT long to be a winter storm by the time that thing got here. Gotta be realistic. We rarely, if ever stay cold that long in the South. Not trying to be negative but it'll probably be too late by the time that gets here. Any objections? If we actually stay cold that long for the shortwave from California to make it here in time, I will stand corrected, but as of right now that seems far fetch, especially since we know we can't get rid of the SER too long...
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That's why I'm (foolishly) clinging on to the mid week threat but that's a chance for a true board wide event albeit not a major one.
 
Well, it may normally not get that cold, but most models suggest a prolonged cold snap and have for a while...honestly longer than my memory even remembers.

And it's not really necessary for there to be a fresh cold air source outside of the deeper South.
 
thank you Eric everything you say makes total sense with the northwesterly flow suppressing everything! hope we can get a more favorable pattern at keep the cold air pumping down.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, it may normally not get that cold, but most models suggest a prolonged cold snap and have for a while...honestly longer than my memory even remembers.

And it's not really necessary for there to be a fresh cold air source outside of the deeper South.
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The only cold snap that I can remember which remotely parallels this one is the one that we had in early January 2010. We had some cold days in both 2014 and 2015, but nothing was as prolonged as what's currently being depicted for next week.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, it may normally not get that cold, but most models suggest a prolonged cold snap and have for a while...honestly longer than my memory even remembers.

And it's not really necessary for there to be a fresh cold air source outside of the deeper South.
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That's my point, somebody is gonna get screwed down the road.

This is one of the rare occasions where if any precip falls in this pattern, it will fall as snow. That even goes for places like Mobile.
 
This is just beautiful, there's a nice shortwave in the southern branch of the jet fixing to emerge over the southern plains inducing west to west-southwesterly flow from Texas to the Carolinas pumping in moisture from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico into the SE US right as another cold front comes down. The vortex is still there over SE Canada which will impart confluence on our s/w and probably preclude it from becoming too strong & thus suppressing the storm track to the south which is what we want. This is generally the kind of look we want to see to allow most of the board from Texas to NC to cash in w/ the pattern we have at hand...
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CentralGAColdFront said:
The only cold snap that I can remember which remotely parallels this one is the one that we had in early January 2010. We had some cold days in both 2014 and 2015, but nothing was as prolonged as what's currently being depicted for next week.
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I just checked and you are correct. It looks like a more intense version of January 2010. Really lately, all three of the GFS/Euro/EPS may be looking like that week that I saw. Cold, slight relaxation, then cold again.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I just checked and you are correct. It looks like a more intense version of January 2010. Really lately, all three of the GFS/Euro/EPS may be looking like that week that I saw. Cold, slight relaxation, then cold again.
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I also remember a rather intense period of cold around the second week of December in 2011. However, that also isn't comparable to what's being depicted over the course of the next week. I seem to remember that there was a minor ZR or IP storm around metro Atlanta at the end of the period in January 2010. I was still a student at the University of Georgia and one of my professors couldn't get from her house in Dacula to Athens due to icy conditions on the road.
 
1300m said:
I'm 100% in agreement. This is all about the evolution of the H5 energy, and which model has the best skill score at this time range? The Euro is identical to the CMC and GFS with the initial wave placement it is ALL about that follow up energy. If the Euro is wrong then this will turn out to be a positively tilted, nothing. If it continues to trend the way it has the past two runs, I predict RDU will have 6-12" of snowfall on the 00z run.
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Yeah if we play it just right then this sort of setup favors board members in the east-central Carolinas as the UKMET implies if anyone (granted its still 6 days out), but I'd personally rather have a nice s/w in the southwestern US generating a board-wide Jan '88-type overrunning event where most score big and the setup in general isn't quite as fickle as is often the case w/ Miller As.
 
We better pray if that cold front Eric posted with s/w and cold shot even verifies given the fact that goofy GFS is showing it. Let's be real.. this is not gonna last too long. Hopefully it does. If it does, I will be truly amazed. But knowing the South, SOI spike incoming and Nina, we are liable to crash and burn. Even Eric mentioned an inevitable warm-up. So are we gonna keep chasing a wild goose till the end of winter with no results?
 
The fact that the UKMET trended better and is at the very least, trying, saves a small amount of face. If anything, or usually, for those that don't know, the UKMET is generally pretty good at picking up on phase events.
 
It's beyond me why everyone goes ape over the SOI index, it's incredibly noisy and there are a multitude of other, much more adequate avenues to monitor/proxy tropical convection and its impacts on the mid-latitude pattern
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is just beautiful, there's a nice shortwave in the southern branch of the jet fixing to emerge over the southern plains inducing west to west-southwesterly flow from Texas to the Carolinas pumping in moisture from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico into the SE US right as another cold front comes down. The vortex is still there over SE Canada which will impart confluence on our s/w and probably preclude it from becoming too strong & thus suppressing the storm track to the south which is what we want. This is generally the kind of look we want to see to allow most of the board from Texas to NC to cash in w/ the pattern we have at hand...
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Yeah, your right. We still thread the needle tho. The warmth is coming back already. We are just chasing this wild goose winter storm to oblivion it seems. And besides, what the chance that we'll even get a good storm after the warm up like the 93 superstore or March 1927? Probably 0 haha. We just suck. I'm about to give up.
 
Stormsfury said:
The fact that the UKMET trended better and is at the very least, trying, saves a small amount of face. If anything, or usually, for those that don't know, the UKMET is generally pretty good at picking up on phase events.
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Thank you, small but subtle positives
 
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