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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

NCSNOW said:
Wondering looking at the current loop on accuweather se radar if anyone is getting any ground truth from NC echoes. You noticed pingers and that matches up well with that radar. In NC could be virga,but if not , it will take a trained flash flood light expert to report on. I'd post loop but isn't worth the hassle on the phone.
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I just had some token flurries in that first band. Already over. Some real dry air to overcome.
 
Energy looking a little strung out on the Goof @ 48...more sliding, less digging.

Precip over the Arkla-Miss; looks to be eroding as is tries to move east for NYE/D
 
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Looks better than the nam for 1.... 2, it appears a little less interaction with the main trof East of it.
 
Maybe a little stronger with the short wave for mid week system but will it help down the road...
 
old 12z run at hr 84 time frame vs new run at same time had energy attacking the ridge over oregon, this run not so mujch at all..lets see if that helps
 
The GFS started off more aggressive, but it was squashed before it got east. Maybe a light event in the western part of the SE if anything.

Hmmm, is this run going to try to get a comma head earlier with the energy?
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The GFS started off more aggressive, but it was squashed before it got east. Maybe a light event in the western part of the SE if anything.

Hmmm, is this run going to try to get a comma head earlier with the energy?
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First part of your post in reference to NYD potential correct? Just making sure every one reading are separating the two...
 
It looks to me like the 0Z GFS will be closer to the better 12Z and 18Z than the worse 0Z and 6Z of yesterday. This COULD be fun.
 
That long wave that you see won't be the storm system. There will be another wave coming down from Canada, and if there's a phase, the two pieces of energy will "fire" up a strong low pressure system some where off the east coast. Explosive cyclogensis.
 
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