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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Just keep pushing it out...seems like we've been doing it for 2 weeks now. I'll jump on the train when it actually starts following time progression, locks in on a date, and keeps that time for 36+ hours.
 
Yeah I am not quite ready to buy this just yet. You just know that if this cold verifies, it will dry out or squash/shred most anything all the way down to Southern Florida. Get this within 72 hours and I will take notice. I could see southern areas of Ga or even SC getting some light accumulations
 
MichaelJ said:
Yeah I am not quite ready to buy this just yet. You just know that if this cold verifies, it will dry out or squash/shred most anything all the way down to Southern Florida. Get this within 72 hours and I will take notice. I could see southern areas of Ga or even SC getting some light accumulations
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The colds only chance of verifying is if the snow happens. The cold would be after the system.
 
Just to note something, the pattern next week showing up on the Euro, CMC and to an extent the GFS is a different look than this past week to NYD. This big threat may whiff off to our east, but I doubt it trends to where it gets shredded.

I sense confusion. Can we maybe get a thread split after the 12z suite to separate threats if needed?
 
BPATL said:
It was the Euro and is still showing it, but the NWS is going way warm with the GFS?? Who knows anymore..??
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KATL_2017122800_forecast_240.png
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I'm beginning to think that the euro is too cold. It just doesn't seem reasonable unless there is something crazy.
 
Arcc said:
Just to note something, the pattern next week showing up on the Euro, CMC and to an extent the GFS is a different look than this past week to NYD. This big threat may whiff off to our east, but I doubt it trends to where it gets shredded.

I sense confusion. Can we maybe get a thread split after the 12z suite to separate threats if needed?
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I agree . Yeah this one won’t get shredded and like you said it’s either gonna be a hit or a miss . I think the boom potential far exceeds the bust . We know what a bust means but I think some people don’t really understand what a boom would mean in the setup . The thing that worries me other than a whiff is a really late bloomer which as of right now that’s the solution the ensembles seem to favor
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm beginning to think that the euro is too cold. It just doesn't seem reasonable unless there is something crazy.
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Here's some more crazy comparison. That would challenge what I have seen in my lifetime in addition to freeze everything.
K47A_2017122800_forecast_240.png

Meanwhile, the EPS is cooling even more. Looks like winter could be here a couple weeks. The range of temps is crazy. What it looks like to me is that the operational Euro is a t the bottom of the average of what the EPS has. I would expect it to adjust and even out to maybe 10 or so if we do get extreme cold. If not, then I expect the Euro to warm up to mid teens like the EPS has. The GFS I think could be way too warm. CMC is still nuts
K47A_2017122800_forecast_EPS_360.png
 
Will have to see what models say today for sure, but I still think, as of now, the shredder is the least likely option
 
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