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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Another non-educated opinion but as one alluded to last night I think, to think we're gonna get six straight days up until the event is foolish, I can't remember if it happened. There will be ups and downs.
 
ColdAMO said:
The only problem with that is by the time we get a healthy shortwave the cold air will be long gone.
We will be back at square one again.
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This pattern is at least going to persist into mid January so if we can drop one nice s/w into California by then, we'll be in business. If anything, this cold air really has refused to go away, and probably will continue to remain the case for the foreseeable future. The warm-up that may have been in the cards by then is starting to wither away...
 
Webberweather53 said:
To just solidify my point even more, the last time a healthy shortwave crashed into California was earlier this month on December 5th.
We all know what happened a few days later...
So again, in this kind of pattern, to get a big, board-wide event, we need a healthy wave to smack into California to kick off a large area of intense, moist southwesterly-WSWly flow and that's what we've been lacking since that storm on the 8th-9th, but our fortunes could change in another 2 weeks or so as the tropical forcing shifts around a little bit to the Maritime Continent and the ridge over Alaska builds and begins to retrograde towards the Bering Sea & NE Eurasia.
Here's the z500 analysis from the high resolution DWD-ICON model for 0z December 5, 2017. This is a model analysis which takes real-time observations and merges them with a first guess very short term forecast from the model, so it's going to be practically the same for most models anyway and it's really hard to screw that up in general, so I decided to go with the highest resolution global model that was available in the Meteocentre's archive in spite of its recent forecast busts.

View attachment 2394
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But Webber, it seems like by the time storms start coming in from California, we would have lost the cold pattern by then. I just don't see us being that fortunate. By the time that happens, we'll be back to warm in my opinion and most likely wasted this pattern.
 
ColdAMO said:
The only problem with that is by the time we get a healthy shortwave the cold air will be long gone.
We will be back at square one again.
Click to expand...
Exactly what I was thinking. I think we would have lost out by then. I can see our fortunes being THAT good for the SE. Especially considering the past few blowtorch winter's..
 
Clayton Reid said:
But Webber, it seems like by the time storms start coming in from California, we would have lost the cold pattern by then. I just don't see us being that fortunate. By the time that happens, we'll be back to warm in my opinion and most likely wasted this pattern.
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I totally disagree with this, I could come up w/ a multitude of examples of big overrunning events in the southeastern US where in fact a big s/w crashing into California was the catalyst the set off the overrunning event. As long as there's a big vortex in southeastern Canada and New England like there has been for the past week or two, we're going to have more than enough cold air at our disposal. Keep in mind when this event occurred in early December, we were at a point in the year that was appreciably less favorable for wintry weather and this storm created its own cold air through melting hydrometeors to eradicate the low level above freezing layer, and we still ended up with a big storm for many on the board.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This pattern is at least going to persist into mid January so if we can drop one nice s/w into California by then, we'll be in business. If anything, this cold air really has refused to go away, and probably will continue to remain the case for the foreseeable future. The warm-up that may have been in the cards by then is starting to wither away...
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If you say so. I don't think we will be that fortunate though. It would probably be a miracle from God if the cold lasted long enough to score from a California shortwave..
 
Clayton Reid said:
Exactly what I was thinking. I think we would have lost out by then. I can see our fortunes being THAT good for the SE. Especially considering the past few blowtorch winter's..
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Many on this board in MS, AL, & GA just had their biggest snowstorm since at least the March 1993 superstorm in a climatologically unfavorable period in early December for crying out loud lol we've done very well thus far given what we've had to work with.
 
Clayton Reid said:
If you say so. I don't think we will be that fortunate though. It would probably be a miracle from God if the cold lasted long enough to score from a California shortwave..
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If I say so? We already have done it once this winter in early December when there was hardly any arctic air to be found, it wouldn't be half as hard to do it in mid January when climatology is a few degrees colder and there's a persistent vortex over SE Canada/New England.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Many on this board in MS, AL, & GA just had their biggest snowstorm since at least the March 1993 superstorm in a climatologically unfavorable period in early December for crying out loud lol we've done very well thus far given what we've had to work with.
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Yeah it was the biggest snowstorm i've seen since 1993. It was like a once or twice in a lifetime event.
 
Well for me 1993 superstorm was total garbage.. IT was a ton of cold rain with 1 inch of backside slop snow then the next morning when the sun came out it was vaporized in a hour or two.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If I say so? We already have done it once this winter in early December when there was hardly any arctic air to be found, it wouldn't be half as hard to do it in mid January when climatology is a few degrees colder and there's a persistent vortex over SE Canada/New England.
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Ok man. You have a point. All these failures has to make one wonder if we just wasted the pattern and go back to warmth, especially with your thorough explanation of why we keep busting tonight. Hopefully, we can score, but my hopes are down and doubts are way up at this point. It's ridiculous how many things the South has to get right to score a big winter event. Always threading the niddle. SMH.
 
While I'm not overly optimistic for this particular threat, when there is phasing involved there is potential for a big dog. Definitely worth watching. The SOI has been negative for a while. Maybe one of those shortwaves crashing into California can deliver if we can get the temperatures to stay cold???
 
packfan98 said:
While I'm not overly optimistic for this particular threat, when there is phasing involved there is potential for a big dog. Definitely worth watching. The SOI has been negative for a while. Maybe one of those shortwaves crashing into California can deliver if we can get the temperatures to stay cold???
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Except for the fact the SO I is about to go positive and that usually signals a ridge for the SE! Yeah, I don't think this cold has much of a chance of staying around long enough for us to score.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Ok man. You have a point. All these failures has to make one wonder if we just wasted the pattern and go back to warmth, especially with your thorough explanation of why we keep busting tonight. Hopefully, we can score, but my hopes are down and doubts are way up at this point. It's ridiculous how many things the South has to get right to score a big winter event. Always threading the niddle. SMH.
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Just as another example in case you still think I'm full of crap, here's a 500 hPa animation preceding the March 1927 snowstorm via the 20th Century ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-20C). Notice a few days before the storm, a healthy shortwave crashed into southern California....
March-1-2-1927-US-500-hPa-vorticity-wind-gph.gif



A few days later, this happened...
March 1-3 1927 NC Snowmap .png


You want to sit here and talk about there being no cold air around and that it would get too warm before the shortwave got here, how about a majority of the southeastern US experiencing their warmest February on record leading up to the March 1927 blizzard in NC? There was one measly shot of cP that got injected into the pattern at the right time and that's all it took. February 1927 was even warmer than last February for many including for Birmingham, Chattanooga, Atlanta, Columbia, and Fayetteville, NC!!
Screen Shot 2017-12-28 at 7.54.37 PM.png
 
Honestly? The kind of cold pattern we're headed into isn't really favorable for big winter storms anyway. The only time I've seen something that was significant come in a pattern that was so cold was January 2014 and that was kind of unreal/something I don't expect to see again/a light event that became significant due to the cold.

We'll likely have to wait for the pattern to relax a bit.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Honestly? The kind of cold pattern we're headed into isn't really favorable for big winter storms anyway. The only time I've seen something that was significant come in a pattern that was so cold was January 2014 and that was kind of unreal/something I don't expect to see again/a light event that became significant due to the cold.

We'll likely have to wait for the pattern to relax a bit.
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Not necessarily, the southeast US can score a big winter event with temps. well below normal. If the pattern is right to allow a storm system, it surely can happen with temps. well below normal. I would love to see a weather system bring some moisture over the deep cold. More colder it is, equals higher snow ratios. Don't get me wrong, I see what you're saying though.
 
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I think that it had been brutally cold for a few days back in December 1989 leading up to the main event for Savannah/far Southern Georgia on Christmas Eve night.
 
93Storm said:
Not necessarily, the southeast US can score a big winter event with temps. well below normal. If the pattern is right to allow a storm system, it surely can happen with temps. well below normal. I would love to see a weather system being some moisture into the deep cold. More colder it is, equals higher snow ratios. Don't get me wrong, I see what you're saying though.
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Well like to "old time Southern saying"... "It s too cold to snow"...LOL
 
Webberweather53 said:
If I say so? We already have done it once this winter in early December when there was hardly any arctic air to be found, it wouldn't be half as hard to do it in mid January when climatology is a few degrees colder and there's a persistent vortex over SE Canada/New England.
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This is great stuff Eric, so what's it gonna take in our pattern to get a s/w to come in to the west coast instead of down through Canada, I'm sure there is a rosby wave, Pac jet correlation? Maybe to get something underneath the Pac ridge? I'm showing my ignorance I know lol

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It
CentralGAColdFront said:
I think that it had been brutally cold for a few days back in December 1989 leading up to the main event for Savannah/far Southern Georgia on Christmas Eve night.
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It was and my location had some cursory ZR/IP events lighy leading up to this event with a monster high with what brought down some record cold air into the country. In fact, the storm wasn't even picked up real well until the event basically developed. Everyone played catch up all day. Actually right now isn't quite far off from what happened in 1989
 
Cross posting this here from banter also so everyone sees:

Okay. The warning system has been enabled. Once you get to 25 points, you will not be able to post for a couple days. 25 points is generous, don't make me lower it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just as another example in case you still think I'm full of crap, here's a 500 hPa animation preceding the March 1927 snowstorm via the 20th Century ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-20C). Notice a few days before the storm, a healthy shortwave crashed into southern California....
March-1-2-1927-US-500-hPa-vorticity-wind-gph.gif



A few days later, this happened...
View attachment 2396


You want to sit here and talk about there being no cold air around and that it would get too warm before the shortwave got here, how about a majority of the southeastern US experiencing their warmest February on record leading up to the March 1927 blizzard in NC? There was one measly shot of cP that got injected into the pattern at the right time and that's all it took. February 1927 was even warmer than last February for many including for Birmingham, Chattanooga, Atlanta, Columbia, and Fayetteville, NC!!
View attachment 2395
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Ok. I stand corrected. Sorry.
 
Stormsfury said:
It


It was and my location had some cursory ZR/IP events lighy leading up to this event with a monster high with what brought down some record cold air into the country. In fact, the storm wasn't even picked up real well until the event basically developed. Everyone played catch up all day. Actually right now isn't quite far off from what happened in 1989
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Yep, I remember it well, we were in the teens with only some high clouds while you folks were getting crushed. This is the type of pattern that favors a repeat of that storm. I also remember Wilmington NC getting down to 0 degrees after the storm.
 
Stormsfury said:
It


It was and my location had some cursory ZR/IP events lighy leading up to this event with a monster high with what brought down some record cold air into the country. In fact, the storm wasn't even picked up real well until the event basically developed. Everyone played catch up all day. Actually right now isn't quite far off from what happened in 1989
Click to expand...
I had just turned two years old whenever this event occurred, but my location was about 30 miles north of where the precipitation stopped and we ended up with nothing at all while locations along the FL/GA line received up to five inches. I can only imagine just how frustrating/shocking it was for most people who ultimately missed out on the storm and those that received snow. The only time that I can ever remember places like Brunswick, GA receiving even snow flurries since that event was the February 12, 2010 storm.
 
metwannabe said:
This is great stuff Eric, so what's it gonna take in our pattern to get a s/w to come in to the west coast instead of down through Canada, I'm sure there is a rosby wave, Pac jet correlation? Maybe to get something underneath the Pac ridge? I'm showing my ignorance I know lol

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We need to give time for the ridge over the Northeastern Pacific to break and retrograde westward towards NE Eurasia and the Bering Sea and for the tropical forcing to shift around to the western Indian Ocean and/or Maritime Continent to drop a trough into California. While the pattern is generally pretty cold, we need the axes of the planetary waves to shift about 5-10 degrees westward from their current positions so we can drop a shortwave down the west coast of the US or into California. Essentially we need forcing that promotes a warmer pattern because it's during this transition period to a warmer pattern that moist southwesterly flow off the Gulf and tropical eastern Pacific is most likely and thus we would have moisture to work with for once... Another way we can generate a favorable pattern for wintry weather is to throw a high latitude blocking ridge over Greenland, this would slow the flow down enough to where these shortwaves entering the US from the northern Rockies and Pacific NW would have time to dig and generate southwesterly flow out ahead of them to overspread moisture over top of the cold air that currently has engulfed most of the US east of the Rockies. The former is more plausible and likely than the latter although if we got a huge bomb off the eastern seaboard as the EPS control showed we could generate just enough forcing downstream to momentarily create a -NAO
 
Webberweather53 said:
We need to give time for the ridge over the Northeastern Pacific to break and retrograde westward towards NE Eurasia and the Bering Sea and for the tropical forcing to shift around to the western Indian Ocean and/or Maritime Continent to drop a trough into California. While the pattern is generally pretty cold, we need the axes of the planetary waves to shift about 5-10 degrees westward from their current positions so we can drop a shortwave down the west coast of the US or into California. Essentially we need forcing that promotes a warmer pattern because it's during this transition period to a warmer pattern that moist southwesterly flow off the Gulf and tropical eastern Pacific is most likely and thus we would have moisture to work with for once... Another way we can generate a favorable pattern for wintry weather is to throw a high latitude blocking ridge over Greenland, this would slow the flow down enough to where these shortwaves entering the US from the northern Rockies and Pacific NW would have time to dig and generate southwesterly flow out ahead of them to overspread moisture over top of the cold air that currently has engulfed most of the US east of the Rockies. The former is more plausible and likely than the latter although if we got a huge bomb off the eastern seaboard as the EPS control showed we could generate just enough forcing downstream to momentarily create a -NAO
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Yeah man I know some Greenland blocking would benefit us greatly right now and your other post clearly explained the sw flow needed over top the cold air to score... thanks. I was really curious about what was needed to get the short waves into Cali instead of down through Canada thanks for the explanation. Any sign of planetary wave shifting in near future to help out? I'm still hopeful of a decent glancing blow from a late bloomer next week... as always great stuff thanks

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metwannabe said:
Yeah man I know some Greenland blocking would benefit us greatly right now and your other post clearly explained the sw flow needed over top the cold air to score... thanks. I was really curious about what was needed to get the short waves into Cali instead of down through Canada thanks for the explanation. Any sign of planetary wave shifting in near future to help out? I'm still hopeful of a decent glancing blow from a late bloomer next week... as always great stuff thanks

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To get shortwaves into California in this background we need the large-scale pattern upstream over the North Pacific to be in the process of reshuffling because the current configuration and forcing isn't conducive, in fact a pattern w/ a deep trough over SE Canada & ridge in Alaska (+TNH) is the least favorable for California receiving any appreciable rainfall. There are signs of this potentially breaking down in the medium range over eastern-northeastern Asia as the seemingly semi-permanent trough begins to re-intensify, favoring a deep trough of low pressure offshore to form and break off the coast of Eastern Asia. This trough will disperse Rossby Wave energy downstream to the eastern Pacific and will briefly extend the Pacific jet. At the onset of the Pacific jet extension, large waves are created downstream due to turbulence and the rapid influx of kinetic energy caused by the jet extension. This can provide the impetus to "kick" an upper level trough (or a piece of it) forecasted to lurk off the coast of California in the medium range, to move onshore California and later get captured by the strong westerly flow underneath the base of the trough in SE Canada and the lakes, potentially leading to an overrunning event here. Most NWP currently hint that this could happen as soon as 8-9 days from now however this is a very fickle forecast and we shouldn't expect much confidence in a particular NWP solution for at least several more days.

eps_z500a_npac_27.png

eps_z500a_npac_37.png
 
Storm5 said:
Nam being the nam and being way more aggressive New Year’s Eve
bd50fc1a7c9b95b607fce763bacda476.jpg



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My NWS FFC forecast has had snow icons in it Sunday/ Monday for 3 days now... not so sure we are kaput with this system... probably a light event if anything.
 
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