Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[deltadog03]

And temps in the mid 20's with a low starting to strengthen. That's gonna drive the ratios up a bit potentially as well

 

[MSnowAtl]

And temps in the mid 20's with a low starting to strengthen. That's gonna drive the ratios up a bit potentially as well

Did the GFS have this?

 

[deltadog03]

Cmc wasn't far off the same solution. Maybe we can have some eps support as well

 

[Brent]

Did the GFS have this?

no GFS had nothing

 

[deltadog03]

Did the GFS have this?

No the GFS was a strung out druggie lol

 

[Mitch West]

Great. Now we have a storm even further away to track. Then when we get close to it, it’ll vanish also. That’s the only real trend I see in all this. I’m in Columbia, and it’s hard to even get excited.

 

[Shawn]

I literally just saw a bigger event than 1973 was for CAE only 150 miles away on that Euro run. Hm.

 

[Stormsfury]

Okay thanks for the info. Are there a chance that the upstate can get heavier precipitation up this way if it phases where it is right now on the euro

Smidge earlier you are fine, but big problems down here as some warm nosing is the problem. Actually I wouldn't mind a slightly earlier phase if I can keep the 850mb low south of me

 

[MSnowAtl]

no GFS had nothing

And the CMC was late...read previous post. Now I am caught up.

 

[deltadog03]

This one **could be** different tho. The energy rotating around that would either string out or most likely give some kind of storm. Different setup then vs now

 

[Arcc]

Not very often do you have a 240knt jet streak at 300mb over the deep south.

 

[deltadog03]

Also FWIW, Euro was way to warm at the surface. RDU was 23F/-2F just before the snow moves in, and then warms to 25F/5F at 12z. That ain't happening.

Bingo

 

[DLI4SCwx]

I literally just saw a bigger event than 1973 was for CAE only 150 miles away on that Euro run. Hm.

If only man! I wasn't around during the time of that Feb. 73 storm, but heard the stories. Would be nice to have a smiler event or one to top it.

 

[Clem282340]

This thing could have big snow writing all over it

 

[Stormsfury]

Not very often do you have a 240knt jet streak over the deep south.

240knots
That would have some insane ramifications on lift ... whoa ...

 

[Meteorologist1999]

How many days is this event from happening if it happens after all!!

 

[deltadog03]

As of now I see 2 possible paths. 1 it's a late bloomer like cmc, or 2 it's close to euro solution. I think gfs solution is likely wrong and a bonus wildcard is it tries to phase up a bit earlier than euro showing. A240kt jet streak is nuts

 

[deltadog03]

As promising as these trends are, it's important to remember that things are still trending. It wouldn't surprise me to see the 12z Euro tomorrow trend towards the earlier phase and bombogensis solution because it was close last run and then even closer this run (it actually did bomb out for New England).

00Z EPS is going to be interesting.

Agreed. I want to see some kind of support from the eps

 

[Clem282340]

So if it phases earlier would the upstate will have problems with temps and 850s to get snow

 

[deltadog03]

Let's also not forget even if it verifies something like tonight's euro run, it's gonna get damn cold. That flow is direct from the Arctic