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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

18z NAM coming soon. Unless we see some changes, the NYD/NYE threat is dead.
 
Don't have high hopes for the NYD system, should lay the foundation for hopefully the next system
 
RollTide18 said:
Where you getting that from?
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The 18z nam
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1300m said:
Have you noticed the wave diving that is phasing is trending faster each run? Even though the lead wave was farther east I'd think a quicker phase would still turn everything neutral to potentially negative tilt faster, don't you?
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I could see that. We need that caboose wave to catch and slow the other one to turn it quicker
 
Shawn said:
Here is the 12z CMC for you guys missing the data on TT:

CMC.png
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That 4" at the airport & 5" in the city on this 12Z CMC run would only be SAV's biggest snow accum. in 180 years. So, I'm very hopeful and excited as can be about the potential (I feel like I'm in an alternate universe right now between this and the ZR threat for tonight and early tomorrow), but I'm a stats guy and know not to put money on a 180 year storm even though it will happen again at some point.
 
GaWx said:
That 4" at the airport & 5" in the city would only be SAV's biggest snow accum. in 180 years. So, I'm very hopeful and excited as can be about the potential (I feel like I'm in an alternate universe right now between this and the ZR threat for tonight and early tomorrow), but I'm a stats guy and know not to put money on a 180 year storm.
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Well Larry, this year doesn't make much sense for La Nina. I mean, I guess we know why; But still. This current pattern has coastal GA/SC written all over it.
 
The boom potential for next week is so high that it's silly cliff jump. By Saturday we should definitively know what we're dealing with then after get into the mesoscale features of it.
 
DadOfJax said:
You can all but hang it up in AL folks. Not a chance we get the shifts we need.
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In most likelihood, true. But, if the Canadian has the right idea, less changes would need to happen to get you involved.

We were originally thinking we had a chance at a Gulf storm (and that is not entirely off the table), but it's becoming less probable.
 
Is it me, or does the 02-04 wave look worse than previous NAM? ruh roh.
 
Shawn said:
In most likelihood, true. But, if the Canadian has the right idea, less changes would need to happen to get you involved.

We were originally thinking we had a chance at a Gulf storm (and that is not entirely off the table), but it's becoming less probable.
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Exactly...the CMC is our closest hope...and its still a million miles away.
 
hartselleweather said:
If all these waves die out. Doesn’t it help for another wave to be the big dog?
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I'm starting to think that we may have to wait for a relax period. and then we introduce zr/ip. To top that off, we have to hope a wave is around at the time.
 
Shawn said:
Is it me, or does the 02-04 wave look worse than previous NAM? ruh roh.
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Looks about the same . In a bad position for a big SE winter storm . Need it to dig further southeast vs what’s being shown . Can’t happen with that feature off the California coast . That’s gonna push it on a SE course
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Doesn't necessarily excite me that JB is excited. JB get's excited over what happens in JB's backyard. If he mentions East he really means Northeast. This storm could and probably will end up burying the NE. When does that not happen?! Anyway, let's hope it comes together quicker so that we can get in on the fun.
 
Okay guys. Let’s stay on track. No need to fight over model runs that will change in 6-12 hours.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
He always forecasts a cold/snowy pattern every single year lol, even blind squirrels like JB find a nut. If you forecast cold enough, eventually you'll verify someday
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Look at his winter outlook. Average at best for us. Yea blind squirrel is right but I hadn't seen anybody forecast as Dr out as he does and get it. That's the problem everybody thinks he is about their board. If u listen to him he is about a pattern. Anyway we shall see what storm does but figuring nothing much for me in piedmont
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah I’d feel much better if this shortwave was coming down through Kansas and Oklahoma vs Arkansas . We are walking an extremely fine line with the currrent setup. Thankfully it’s 6 days out but I doubt we see a 200 or so mile west shift with the shortwave track
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Yep, we can hope, but if not maybe our SE GA/Carolina guys can take the hit. Still a good possibility of an incredible storm.
 
Storm5 said:
Looks about the same . In a bad position for a big SE winter storm . Need it to dig further southeast vs what’s being shown . Can’t happen with that feature off the California coast . That’s gonna push it on a SE course
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Looking at it, the 12z run has the west coast ridge farther east which is what in turn pushes the s/w farther east. I'm not giving false hope, but don't jump yet.

I'm talking in general, not about you Storm.
 
What are the chances this thing stays like it is? I' in Dublin ga, (central GA), got screwed by the last one, an most of the ones before... itd be nice to get in on the action like everybody else did last time!
 
1300m said:
This actually illustrates what I've been trying to say. Look at that trailing wave in MT. It's faster and the leading wave is slower. If they interact sooner, the whole thing goes neutral tilt faster and further west.
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I certainly wouldn't rule that out...I've seen it happen before on models that are 3-4 days away from the "event", and we're getting in that time frame now...Would certainly put the whole board in a much better mood.

Edit: And, of course, this bolstered up pig would need to do some digging!!
 
1300m said:
This actually illustrates what I've been trying to say. Look at that trailing wave in MT. It's faster and the leading wave is slower. If they interact sooner, the whole thing goes neutral tilt faster and further west.
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As you indicated the only positive from today’s 12z run was the slightly quicker wave over Montana. The spacing between the h5 low in the Atlantic was tighter too. Even with that it blossomed into a sizeable impact to the east coast. At this range the Euro has struggled with the pacific, really with just about everything this winter so far.
 
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