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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Lots of wiffs and wide rights on the EPS . I found one member that gives my area precip


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Just too much cold to allow an earlier phase to help those in the West. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see only the Outer Banks getting snow from this before it is done shifting eastward. As someone mentioned earlier, we need it to form or tap into Gulf moisture not form in the Atlantic
 
WTH is this warm nose in GA and AL???? 250 pm

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GeorgiaGirl said:
That's what I wondered about with the GFS but another question is...can the Euro be too phase happy at times with it's bias?
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Yes, the Euro is phase-happy at this range. It has happened many times in the past. It never works out..... but hey maybe this time it will??
 
You want these circled in blue to verify if you're looking for a substantial snow in the Carolinas:

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Shawn said:
You want these circled in blue to verify if you're looking for a substantial snow in the Carolinas:

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For sure Shawn! I'm curious though, what was the setup for the Feb. 73' storm? Trying to see how similar or different the setup was.
 
1300m said:
The trend has definitely not been favorable for folks west of GA. As Shawn mentioned, I think this favors eastern GA/SC/NC where this could turn in to a very big deal. The other thing to remember is the Euro is still trending faster with that wave that phases with what we have been calling wave 3. That trend continued today and is what prevented this run from being a whiff. If that trend continues, it should end up digging the base of the trough further southwest. But again, would probably be too late for those in western GA and AL on west.
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Great point if that wave catches it and pulls it back is super game on, if not it might be super swing and miss
 
EastAtlwx said:
As of now this is a Carolinas setup only and tbh with recent trends and not having UKMET on board the southeast may end of being 0-3. Very frustrating.
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The ukmet has been like the gfs this season . It flips from run to run I wouldn’t worry about having the ukmet 6 days out


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Storm5 said:
The ukmet has been like the gfs this season . It flips from run to run I wouldn’t worry about having the ukmet 6 days out


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UKMET has been better than the GFS for the last two threats up there with the euro. I don’t know what you are looking at lol
 

Where have you been this season ?? I’m not talking about the last two threats not sure where that came from. And being better than the gfs isn’t saying much at all
 
Here’s the latest update from FFC:
The latest GFS update is trending even drier for our area.
Therefore, pops were reduced just slightly, mainly in the
overnight Sunday into Monday time frame to reflect the drying
trend. With the ECMWF retaining some moisture in the area, if any
preicpitation could be squeezed out of this system, it could still
be in the form of wintry precip. Further adjustments will
continue as we near the weekend.

No changes were made to our next period of interest, mid week next
week, as the system elements are still coming together. The GFS
keeps deeper moisture to our south, while the ECMWF is still
agressive with precip in our area. With cold temperatures already
in place, we will continue to monitor the potential for wintry
precipitation as the system evolves.
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Storm5 said:
Where have you been this season ?? I’m not talking about the last two threats not sure where that came from. And being better than the gfs isn’t saying much at all
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First, your last sentence literally says nothing lol. Second, for the pattern we are end the UKMET has been near the top with suppression with the euro. They performed the best and were the quickest to latch onto suppression with this last two threats and that’s the truth dude... edit: damn my grammar has been bad today lol
 
Yea, if I was in east Carolina(s) I would be loving that look. It did trend a little east but the trajectory shifted a little better to more of a NE instead of ENE path. Trends from here should be interesting. Like to see that control run Webber just posted come true:weenie:
 
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