Yeah guys, follow the EPS here. We have a chance at a monster storm. No cliff jumping, yet!
Absolutely, of course you can't count on it, but the storm in early December did shift westward. So you have to keep hope alive.
Yeah guys, follow the EPS here. We have a chance at a monster storm. No cliff jumping, yet!
Yes that is true.The time table is next Wednesday and not NYE or NYD correct?
Gah, so what it would take to bring more snow into Alabama in earlier runs. Earlier phase?
Looks that way for now, but I would not write it off.Is the upstate out of the woods on this system
Noone is, the storm isn't until next Wednesday if there is even a storm.Is the upstate out of the woods on this system
Unless we get an earlier phase which would pull the storm NW. Then it would be a board wide hit.Is the upstate out of the woods on this system
Well, almost ...Unless we get an earlier phase which would pull the storm NW. Then it would be a board wide hit.
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Sounds like if that happened a lot more real estate could be in play.Not really. We need the wave to dig westward and turn more neutral faster and establish a SW flow. We can make out of this without a phase.
Yeah I’d feel much better if this shortwave was coming down through Kansas and Oklahoma vs Arkansas . We are walking an extremely fine line with the currrent setup. Thankfully it’s 6 days out but I doubt we see a 200 or so mile west shift with the shortwave trackNot really. We need the wave to dig westward and turn more neutral faster and establish a SW flow. We can make out of this without a phase.
Less than none ...Minuscule changes and that would have been some widespread foot plus totals over the Carolinas that run. We need to keep that wave farther west entering the CONUS. At least we are in the game, I'm honestly not sure what else folks are expecting at this lead time. How many winter storms have ever been modeled consistently from 6 days out?
I was stationed in Columbia in the late 60's and drove home to Atl one weekend, and it was spitting sleet in Cola when I left, and when I got to Greenville, there as a good 5 inches of snow on the ground and coming down still. Had to sneak onto the Interstate as the state patrol was blocking access, but I knew some back roads. Anyway, a dusting in Cola. heavy snow in Greenville, and it stopped about the rest area just north of Atl. So Atl and Cola lost out and Gville got hammered. Oh, the fickle nature of winter storms in the deep southI was living in Greenwood, SC then and was right on the line of getting 12" + and getting much less. I got about 13" and was more than pleased. I'm in Greenville, SC now and if I had been then, I would have been PO'd.
If you Carolina boys remember Jan 2000, then this can happen based on the 12z Euro. Just let it work things out; it's not horrible!
The storm the ETA missed, precip wise; lol.
Do you see that happeningUnless we get an earlier phase which would pull the storm NW. Then it would be a board wide hit.
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12"+ totals start right across the VA/NC border on that Euro run. All we need is to back up the wave a little bit and so many on this board are going to be crying tears of joy. If it goes the other way, well we'll keep crying. Either way, this one has the potential to make folks cry.
Here is the 12z CMC for you guys missing the data on TT:
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I'm will you on that one looks like the upstate boys are out on this one againWell I guess it's time for me to start the hike up to the top of the cliff before it gets too crowded. It was a nice look while it lasted.
The trend has definitely not been favorable for folks west of GA. As Shawn mentioned, I think this favors eastern GA/SC/NC where this could turn in to a very big deal. The other thing to remember is the Euro is still trending faster with that wave that phases with what we have been calling wave 3. That trend continued today and is what prevented this run from being a whiff. If that trend continues, it should end up digging the base of the trough further southwest. But again, would probably be too late for those in western GA and AL on west.
Where in western NC are you located??That's what I was thinking as of right now doesn't look good for us in Western NC but still time for things to change just hope to see them change soon.
It's pretty bad when it's the Southeast Ridge but even worse when you have to consider the Southwest ridge. LOLThat’s the thing the ridge out west isn’t gonna have a massive shift west at 6 days out so there is a limit to how much further west the shortwave can get . IMO as has already been said this favors eastern Georgia and the Carolinas . We in the western part need a big change at H5 and the chances of that are small. But if there were to take place we need to start seeing them soon. This just isn’t a good look for my area![]()
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Mt airy area northern foothillsWhere in western NC are you located??
Do you see it phasing soonerIf you guys take a look at the panel I posted above, of the Euro turning it into a bigger NE storm, you'll see that we need an earlier phase to cause sort of the same effect down here instead. It's entirely possible SC/GA/ & NC end up with a big storm on their hands if the Euro speeds up as we get closer. in fact, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the low to end up being too close to the coast for some areas to stay predominantly snow. While giving the upstate more precip, ga, mountains of NC.
Yeah I’d feel much better if this shortwave was coming down through Kansas and Oklahoma vs Arkansas . We are walking an extremely fine line with the currrent setup. Thankfully it’s 6 days out but I doubt we see a 200 or so mile west shift with the shortwave track
yea need about 200-300 mile shift for it to make a difference.That’s the thing the ridge out west isn’t gonna have a massive shift west at 6 days out so there is a limit to how much further west the shortwave can get . IMO as has already been said this favors eastern Georgia and the Carolinas . We in the western part need a big change at H5 and the chances of that are small. But if there were to take place we need to start seeing them soon. This just isn’t a good look for my area![]()
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I assume, if any, the southern sections would stand a better chance. As of now, even that chance is low. (speaking of the foothills area)Where in western NC are you located??