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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
Yeah guys, follow the EPS here. We have a chance at a monster storm. No cliff jumping, yet!
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Absolutely, of course you can't count on it, but the storm in early December did shift westward. So you have to keep hope alive.
 
Here is the 12z CMC for you guys missing the data on TT:

CMC.png
 
Late bloomer for sure. Let's see what the eps says for sure. Won't take much to pull this back west
 
CMC H5 map; not bad; starts a bit earlier than Euro; less phase chance though:
We still have a lot to figure out with this one.


cmc2.png
 
Arcc said:
Not really. We need the wave to dig westward and turn more neutral faster and establish a SW flow. We can make out of this without a phase.
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Sounds like if that happened a lot more real estate could be in play.
 
Arcc said:
Not really. We need the wave to dig westward and turn more neutral faster and establish a SW flow. We can make out of this without a phase.
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Yeah I’d feel much better if this shortwave was coming down through Kansas and Oklahoma vs Arkansas . We are walking an extremely fine line with the currrent setup. Thankfully it’s 6 days out but I doubt we see a 200 or so mile west shift with the shortwave track
 
Amazing to look at that Jan. 2000 storm and see how the models got it wrong for the most part. Can't wait to see what the EPS says.
 
1300m said:
Minuscule changes and that would have been some widespread foot plus totals over the Carolinas that run. We need to keep that wave farther west entering the CONUS. At least we are in the game, I'm honestly not sure what else folks are expecting at this lead time. How many winter storms have ever been modeled consistently from 6 days out?
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Less than none ...
 
tonysc said:
I was living in Greenwood, SC then and was right on the line of getting 12" + and getting much less. I got about 13" and was more than pleased. I'm in Greenville, SC now and if I had been then, I would have been PO'd.
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I was stationed in Columbia in the late 60's and drove home to Atl one weekend, and it was spitting sleet in Cola when I left, and when I got to Greenville, there as a good 5 inches of snow on the ground and coming down still. Had to sneak onto the Interstate as the state patrol was blocking access, but I knew some back roads. Anyway, a dusting in Cola. heavy snow in Greenville, and it stopped about the rest area just north of Atl. So Atl and Cola lost out and Gville got hammered. Oh, the fickle nature of winter storms in the deep south :) T
 
Shawn said:
If you Carolina boys remember Jan 2000, then this can happen based on the 12z Euro. Just let it work things out; it's not horrible!

The storm the ETA missed, precip wise; lol.
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I don't really remember it but my dad has talked to me about this storm in East Georgia. His story is the same as y'all in Carolina for the beginning, nothing was expected but it unexpectedly started to snow heavily for a few hours. Where it breaks off is it didn't stay snow, it switched over to freezing rain, then rain and the snow was almost completely gone by morning (I fill in the brackets by wunderground).

I have a very vague picture memory of when I was a four year old of where when we were trying to go to my dance class (which got cancelled) there was snow on the ground...maybe up to 3 inches? It's not recorded but it definitely did happen, just to a MUCH lesser extent than what the Carolinas got.
 
1300m said:
12"+ totals start right across the VA/NC border on that Euro run. All we need is to back up the wave a little bit and so many on this board are going to be crying tears of joy. If it goes the other way, well we'll keep crying. Either way, this one has the potential to make folks cry.
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It's going to take a lot more for those in AL, TN, MS, etc. But for the Carolinas and parts of GA, its very close to a big deal. Literally, move that trough axis back West 100 miles even. Whew.
 
What's it going to take to get the foothills of NC in the game? Earlier phase? Or alot more? Just doesn't look like moisture can get back this way looks mainly like an eastern NC event but then again the early December storm looked the same way
 
Well I guess it's time for me to start the hike up to the top of the cliff before it gets too crowded. It was a nice look while it lasted.
 
If you guys take a look at the panel I posted above, of the Euro turning it into a bigger NE storm, you'll see that we need an earlier phase to cause sort of the same effect down here instead. It's entirely possible SC/GA/ & NC end up with a big storm on their hands if the Euro speeds up as we get closer. in fact, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the low to end up being too close to the coast for some areas to stay predominantly snow. While giving the upstate more precip, ga, mountains of NC.
 
1300m said:
The trend has definitely not been favorable for folks west of GA. As Shawn mentioned, I think this favors eastern GA/SC/NC where this could turn in to a very big deal. The other thing to remember is the Euro is still trending faster with that wave that phases with what we have been calling wave 3. That trend continued today and is what prevented this run from being a whiff. If that trend continues, it should end up digging the base of the trough further southwest. But again, would probably be too late for those in western GA and AL on west.
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That’s the thing the ridge out west isn’t gonna have a massive shift west at 6 days out so there is a limit to how much further west the shortwave can get . IMO as has already been said this favors eastern Georgia and the Carolinas . We in the western part need a big change at H5 and the chances of that are small. But if there were to take place we need to start seeing them soon. This just isn’t a good look for my area
941f56d2e3216b1e209ede4e71336753.jpg



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That's what I was thinking as of right now doesn't look good for us in Western NC but still time for things to change just hope to see them change soon.
 
Storm5 said:
That’s the thing the ridge out west isn’t gonna have a massive shift west at 6 days out so there is a limit to how much further west the shortwave can get . IMO as has already been said this favors eastern Georgia and the Carolinas . We in the western part need a big change at H5 and the chances of that are small. But if there were to take place we need to start seeing them soon. This just isn’t a good look for my area
941f56d2e3216b1e209ede4e71336753.jpg



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It's pretty bad when it's the Southeast Ridge but even worse when you have to consider the Southwest ridge. LOL
 
Shawn said:
If you guys take a look at the panel I posted above, of the Euro turning it into a bigger NE storm, you'll see that we need an earlier phase to cause sort of the same effect down here instead. It's entirely possible SC/GA/ & NC end up with a big storm on their hands if the Euro speeds up as we get closer. in fact, it's not out of the realm of possibility for the low to end up being too close to the coast for some areas to stay predominantly snow. While giving the upstate more precip, ga, mountains of NC.
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Do you see it phasing sooner
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah I’d feel much better if this shortwave was coming down through Kansas and Oklahoma vs Arkansas . We are walking an extremely fine line with the currrent setup. Thankfully it’s 6 days out but I doubt we see a 200 or so mile west shift with the shortwave track
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Storm5 said:
That’s the thing the ridge out west isn’t gonna have a massive shift west at 6 days out so there is a limit to how much further west the shortwave can get . IMO as has already been said this favors eastern Georgia and the Carolinas . We in the western part need a big change at H5 and the chances of that are small. But if there were to take place we need to start seeing them soon. This just isn’t a good look for my area
941f56d2e3216b1e209ede4e71336753.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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yea need about 200-300 mile shift for it to make a difference.
 
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