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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Cary_Snow95 said:
20z HRRR with another shift west
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_5.png
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I found that the hrrr does a really good job within 10 to 12 hour range but beyond that in the 12 to 18 hour range it seems to struggle at times

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Webberweather53 said:
This HRRR run is going to stick Raleigh into the western edge of the core of this storm now... NW shifts likely not done yet either
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And look at the mixing issues showing up further West as well as you mentioned.

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Man Lucy is holding that football up nice and pretty I think I can kick it this time, here goes....

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Shawn said:
I can say that since yesterday, modeling picked up the strange "finger" with a dry slot to it's East. It worked out, and is what gave mby (at least) actual snowfall earlier today, after the virga storm.
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Congrats on your flizzard Shawn. I got nada one flake. Lol. I'm about 5 mins from downtown CAE. Not sure about rest of January, but maybe February can get something our way. Since, typically that's our best month climo wise this time of year. Not sure though with this Nina pattern. We'll see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
HRRR has gone from to to about 3" in Raleigh in the past several runs lol (when accounting for higher ratios). Keep coming...
View attachment 2606
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Certainly that could be wrong but that's within 10 hours and the time frame I most trust the hrrr

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That's new development ahead of the main precip shield from about Goldsboro to Rocky Mount that has just blossomed within the last half hour or so. Obviously it's virga but it may be tipping it's hand to wear one of the heavier bands may set up later
df8d336753e4c81929fb198165607faf.jpg


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metwannabe said:
No sooner than Raleigh had basically thrown in the towel they extend the winter weather advisories one-tier County's westward, that's comical.

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As of 450 PM Wednesday

We will add a row of counties to the west to account for current
observational data / radar trends indicating accumulating light snow
in Richmond... Moore... Lee... Chatham... Durham... Granville... and
Vance Counties of the Sandhills and eastern Piedmont. An average of
up to an inch is likely in the Advisory Area

Not even kidding. Huffman even posted he's thinking maybe 1-2" across Raleigh now as well.
 
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