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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
Yes, the system strengthens rapidly because in an instant occlusion process at the large-scale a shortwave is rotating within the base of an upper level trough and the incipient disturbance catches up w/ a residual arctic frontal boundary and effectively strengthens the temperature (baroclinicity) and vorticity advection over it. Essentially what this looks like on satellite is you'll see (as we saw this morning) a baroclinic leaf cloud structure develop to the west of an elongated moderate-deep cloud mass and as time progresses, this will overrun this cloud mass associated with the arctic front and it'll eventually create a classic comma head structure to the storm that's often associated w/ stereotypical monster extratropical cyclones
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Thank you. That makes sense. The new 12k NAM has a much, much more consolidated storm and is much closer to the coast than even the 18z HRRR, which is showing a decent precip shield inland. The 12k NAM has pretty much the same look as the 12z run. Still waiting on the 3k, but it looks like it's going to be as bad as the 12k.
 
I just saw where Tropical Tidbits added the HRDPS Canadian Mesoscale model. Anyone used it before?
 
Even though the HRRR ticked westward again, like previous runs it's still probably developing way too much deep convection further east so further adjustments are possible... Frictional convergence and higher baroclincity further west are likely contributing to its poor handling of the low track
 
Rain Cold said:
Thank you. That makes sense. The new 12k NAM has a much, much more consolidated storm and is much closer to the coast than even the 18z HRRR, which is showing a decent precip shield inland. The 12k NAM has pretty much the same look as the 12z run. Still waiting on the 3k, but it looks like it's going to be as bad as the 12k.
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Be great if we can have a change now that's actually favorable.
 
Rain Cold said:
Thank you. That makes sense. The new 12k NAM has a much, much more consolidated storm and is much closer to the coast than even the 18z HRRR, which is showing a decent precip shield inland. The 12k NAM has pretty much the same look as the 12z run. Still waiting on the 3k, but it looks like it's going to be as bad as the 12k.
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Minor improvements over the 12z, at least it wasn't a complete wiff.... time to start straining eyes at the radar and screaming for echos to move nw

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metwannabe said:
Minor improvements over the 12z, at least it wasn't a complete wiff.... time to start straining eyes at the radar and screaming for echos to move nw

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
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This run at least stretched a finger of precip back nw. Maybe it's trying to overcome dry air??
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png
 
metwannabe said:
Minor improvements over the 12z, at least it wasn't a complete wiff.... time to start straining eyes at the radar and screaming for echos to move nw

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That weird finger of precip that lingers through the Triangle or just west, and then the big gap to the east is just weird. I don't expect that to happen that way.

The HRRR continues to slightly improve!
 
I can say that since yesterday, modeling picked up the strange "finger" with a dry slot to it's East. It worked out, and is what gave mby (at least) actual snowfall earlier today, after the virga storm.
 
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