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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Both the GFS and the HRRR are been showing more mixing/sleet/ice further inland from the NC coast. I understand this is only 1 run of each, but would that shift also correlate with the increase of snow amounts closer to and around RDU, at least according to RAH?
 
Alex said:
Both the GFS and the HRRR are been showing more mixing/sleet/ice further inland from the NC coast. I understand this is only 1 run of each, but would that shift also correlate with the increase of snow amounts closer to and around RDU, at least according to RAH?
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Yes because it means WAA in the mid-levels is moving deeper inland shifting the convergence zone farther west.
 
Jack Roney said:
6lspdn8vv

HRRR Looks fantastic. I wish I could cash out. This thing changes like crazy every hour. Who knows at hour 8 what we really look like

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Yeah, I'll take that. Tight gradient as usual for Wake.
 
Our low is starting to crank and you can see that feature just off the coast, looks like an inverted trough, I'm thinking that is the track... also can see the feeble attempt of cad in Carolinas as Eric mentioned earlier, complex and fascinating system
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Looks like I'll be in the snow hole for eastern Johnston Co. Can see precip on radar in three different directions falling, nothing here.
 
Precip flying in eastern Johnston County about 5500' in the air. Can see on radar, but nothing making to ground. Did dry air here just get 'trapped'?
 
Stump said:
Precip flying in eastern Johnston County about 5500' in the air. Can see on radar, but nothing making to ground. Did dry air here just get 'trapped'?
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The precipitation to our west is associated w/ our old vorticity max that helped produce snow & ice in GA/FL, while to the east it's associated with the primary low and the combination of the fading, older vorticity max and cold air advection on the back side of the low (which argues for descent) is leading to the snow hole over Raleigh. It's not something you can accurately predict even a day or two out if that
 
Webberweather53 said:
The precipitation to our west is associated w/ our old vorticity max that helped produce snow & ice in GA/FL, while to the east it's associated with the primary low and the combination of the fading, older vorticity max and cold air advection on the back side of the low (which argues for descent) is leading to the snow hole over Raleigh. It's not something you can accurately predict even a day or two out if that
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Do you expect it to fill in or is raleigh staying high and dry all night
 
HRRR has done horrible with this system. Latest update has KFAY jackpotting more or less - I am addicted to checking each hour, just to laugh
 
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