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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Can't win here. I don't think we have a good idea what we need to get snow here anymore. It seems when we do lately it's usually a last minute surprise, like with the Christmas 2010 storm.

When the models do show a huge storm, the setup says no and the models end up being wrong. When we have a great setup, the models say no and end up being right.
 
We need that flow at 500mb to back to the se instead of sw to pull in that Atlantic feed.


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Those returns are blossoming coming across state line. Not all virga. Long shot but if storm can stay on more north ly heading for a while longer, some of us might luck up and catch 30 to 60 mins of flakes.
 
Maybe the sun can create some instability and spark some heavy snow showers under those towering cumulonimbus clouds.
 
Yea Here comes our best and only shot out this way:
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I see all that moisture to the south and think that's got to come north over us.
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