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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
This is literally stupid, the GFS shifts way west this run and other high res models like the NAM (which may have poorly initialized) go east. lmao
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Yep just saw this actually gives wake co accumulating snow..... this is insanity man

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BHS1975 said:
It’s crazy to think how little we still don’t understand about the weather.


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If there's one thing we really don't understand about the weather more than anything else it's cloud microphysics and the plethora of second and third order non-linear interactions between clouds, radiation, and other clouds (& future clouds), and their responses to external stimuli... This only gets amplified when you're dealing with deep Cb convection
 
It's definitely negative tilt and looks like pressure falls are right along the coast... now let's see if this can organize into one slp right along those lines
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metwannabe said:
Yep just saw this actually gives wake co accumulating snow..... this is insanity man

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Seems like a typical system to me. Globals jump NW at the last minute. The short range models look terrible. The radar is wetter, drier, nw, sw, east, west. Good times
 
Radar looks weak to the south. There was a solid wall of green with tons of yellow banding to the south as the Crusher moved in.


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BHS1975 said:
Radar looks weak to the south. There was a solid wall of green with tons of yellow banding to the south as the Crusher moved in.


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Yep, there was a healthy mesoscale convective vortex that went over Macon GA in that event which argued for more precipitation much further west than this case and the convection was more mature than what we're currently seeing over eastern GA. Small details like this are hard to predict more than a day or two in advance, but it doesn't mean snow can't make it back to RDU
 
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