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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

metwannabe said:
I have a feeling the radar is going to be painful to watch tonight...

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I wonder if there is any scenario left on the table where this thing surprises to the upside here? I'm not seeing any developments currently that would argue for that. I guess we have to hope that the low somehow bombs out close to the coast. I guess that's all we have.
 
Rain Cold said:
I wonder if there is any scenario left on the table where this thing surprises to the upside here? I'm not seeing any developments currently that would argue for that. I guess we have to hope that the low somehow bombs out close to the coast. I guess that's all we have.
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Rah says turn out the lights

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I just can't believe we have a low coming up the coast and can't get snow here. What about all the talk this morning about the precip being more west due to it going negative tilt sooner? What happened with that?
 
Brick Tamland said:
I just can't believe we have a low coming up the coast and can't get snow here. What about all the talk this morning about the precip being more west due to it going negative tilt sooner? What happened with that?
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Models think its too dry for the low to produce a healthy flow of atlantic moisture. It would be fun to have access to a model where a human could edit the variables. ie. "what if Raleigh's Td was 25 right meow and not 7"
 
Jack Roney said:
Models think its too dry for the low to produce a healthy flow of atlantic moisture. It would be fun to have access to a model where a human could edit the variables. ie. "what if Raleigh's Td was 25 right meow and not 7"
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Yes, it's unfornate that to get blockbuster snowstorms, you need borderline temps not only at the surface, but in the upper atmosphere as well. It's simply difficult to get much when your 850s are -8C. You want to be around -3C or so to get good snows.
 
As Web alluded to, RAL DP just dropped 10f in 30 mins and LP doesn't look to bomb out til just off the OBX if we're lucky. Gonna be tough but I can't completely write off a few scattered flurries in the Triangle
 
So I started reading this forum during hurricane Irma, and you all helped a lot with predictions. I’m going to be in Boone, NC from today til Friday. What can I expect as far as ice/dangerous road conditions goes?
 
Pk91 said:
So I started reading this forum during hurricane Irma, and you all helped a lot with predictions. I’m going to be in Boone, NC from today til Friday. What can I expect as far as ice/dangerous road conditions goes?
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Welcome to the board! Good to see another Florida poster here! I would expect maybe a few flakes up in Boone and bitter cold.
 
metwannabe said:
I just saw their video they shared on Twitter, gotta love how they say the GFS has been rock solid with this system



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I'm really not disappointed in the radar to the south. Weak echoes? Sure but it's not like it's empty

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metwannabe said:
I just saw their video they shared on Twitter, gotta love how they say the GFS has been rock solid with this system



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Guess we're supposed to forget all the times it's shown a big winter storm here only to be wrong.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Welcome to the board! Good to see another Florida poster here! I would expect maybe a few flakes up in Boone and bitter cold.
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Thank you. We are thin blooded floridians, and negative temps after wind chill are a new experience. We will share the conditions in NW North Carolina. Thanks :)
 
It feels like Raleigh has just not been in the best spot for storms over the past couple of years. I feel we will get a big one soon enough though.
 
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