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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
Even if the surface doesn't reflect this, the mid-upper level pattern looks better on this GFS run. The s/w is tilting a little faster and is stronger over GA & FL. There's still some potentially spurious diabatically driven PV noise over the SW Atlantic. Some of that is likely real but the GFS's subvortex scale convective feedback is gonna hurt it here
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Any chance at Upslope in W NC, while the winds are E/SE during the storm, or no?
 
Cmc isn’t really close to the nam at H5
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Storm5 said:
Cmc isn’t really close to the nam at H5
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What's funny about that it still manages to get precip inland. Lol I see the SFC low is a bit closer to the coast as well
 
Cmc later with phase. But globals show the bombogensis potential .
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the NAM is too amped (which is entirely possible), this still is setting up for a decent hit in general for the coastal plain & the I-95 corridor, but boy we could be in business in a hurry if the s/ws phase just a wee bit sooner
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Just trying to catch up and this looks awesome but it can phase just a wee bit sooner but selfishly I hope it doesn't phase much more than a wee bit sooner. I'm starting to dance with the warm nose issue on the Nam already

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The RGEM is giving me 0.40" of qpf by hour 48 or 7AM on Wednesday. Almost all other models give me virtually nothing that early. I wonder if the rgem is onto something with the earlier start. Opinions? Also, this is 100% ZR from Phil
through SAV/CHS through the end of its run, which is well before the end of the storm. It does have an IP transition to the northwest but it is so narrow. 850's in SAV-CHS are mainly +0.5 to +2, which history says supports IP
more than ZR fwiw. The threat for major wintry precip in coastal GA/SC slowly seems to be including more and more of ZR for the first part of the storm, not exactly comforting. Hopefully the nonsnow wintry would end up being more IP and less ZR though the 850 warming trends/NW surface low track trend would go more toward ZR and maybe even rain eventually if Delta's call is right.
 
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GaWx said:
The RGEM is giving me 0.40" of qpf by hour 48 or 7AM on Wednesday. Almost all other models give me virtually nothing that early. I wonder if the rgem is onto something with the earlier start. Opinions? Also, this is 100% ZR from Phil
through SAV/CHS through the end of its run, which is well before the end of the storm. It does have an IP transition to the northwest but it is so narrow. 850's in SAV-CHS are mainly +0.5 to +2, which history says supports IP
more than ZR fwiw. The threat for major wintry precip in coastal GA/SC slowly seems to be including more and more of ZR for the first part of the storm, not exactly comforting. Hopefully the nonsnow wintry would end up being more IP and less ZR though the 850 warming trends/NW surface low track trend would go more toward ZR and maybe even rain eventually if Delta's call is right.
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To me this is one of the more hard forecasts in the fact there is MANY moving parts here. NAM is showing what could happen if we get a quicker phase, CMC and GFS And EURO say well...it won't make it....I am afraid we won't know until at least tomorrow or Tuesday
 
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