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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

GaWx said:
The NW trend of the main surface low track
on the NAM continues. It is now getting uncomfortably close to the coast and is turning more of the coastal snow into ZR and delaying the change to snow. Might Delta score a win with his bold call of a low near or not far from Jacksonville, FL? If this trend continues, rain may soon enter into the equation.

I'm pretty confident that the last 2 NAM runs are being affected by its too high qpf bias to some extent.

Does anyone know why the NAM has no sleet in the transition zone between snow and ZR?
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I would think ther would be more sleet. The warm nose, I didnt look at soundings yet, but didn't seem to stout
 
hr 30 our wave is stronger and nice tilting going on. chaser is tryhing to get it
 
12z nam is a lot faster with the chaser wave vs the 12z gfs through 36


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12z nam vs gfs
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deltadog03 said:
NAM is fun to look at and I think still possible but we need more model support for it, before I totally buy in. Notice *especially on the 3km nam* how mujch more "vorticity bombs* there are over the SE vs the western atlantic. I noticed the NAM also dropped in the waves further west and phased them a bit quicker.
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Translation???
 
Even if the surface doesn't reflect this, the mid-upper level pattern looks better on this GFS run. The s/w is tilting a little faster and is stronger over GA & FL. There's still some potentially spurious diabatically driven PV noise over the SW Atlantic. Some of that is likely real but the GFS's subvortex scale convective feedback is gonna hurt it here
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Like Allan, I'm gonna lean on Nam and RGEM. Looking for globals h5 trends. Can't see enough panels on ukie icon or jma. Gfs trended toward nam compared 6z to 12z. So we'll see how it yo yos rest of day
 
The black and white charts for the cmc are damn near impossible to see. Looks like it could be a good run after all for eastern NC
 
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