• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
Need to figure out how to get our hands on the grib files and make the maps our selves, tbh.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think SV (maybe?) has more detail, but the coarse maps come out quicker and people post about those first.
 
Taking a look at 500-850 mb moisture maps per 12z NAM, it looks wet up through the upstate. This forecast is very touchy. Jan 2000 isn't off the table, RGEM is not far off with surface solution of the NAM.
 
Funny thing is, and I hope I'm not stepping on toes, but FFC doesn't mention anything about this. I get it, most models are dry, and that may ultimately happen. But not a peep? I know it won't effect ATL but damn
 
Too far north. Too far south. Too far east. Too far west. Damn irmo/chapin never gets it.
 
The UK isn't bad, just seems a little odd (there is NO precip onshore at 48 and that changes at 60). Looks like a great hit for East NC/SE VA.
 
deltadog03 said:
Funny thing is, and I hope I'm not stepping on toes, but FFC doesn't mention anything about this. I get it, most models are dry, and that may ultimately happen. But not a peep? I know it won't effect ATL but damn
Click to expand...
CAE is in the same boat; saying that west trends have shown up, but the NAM's 2x crazy runs; nope. Office usually notes the SREF (which has ticked up substantially too).

Noticed that the 12z NAM around here has 0.60+ around the CAE region which is what the SREF's higher tier has (which is expected b/c of the NAM members). The SREF mean is around 0.20. Again, influenced by the NAM.
 
Shawn said:
CAE is in the same boat; saying that west trends have shown up, but the NAM's 2x crazy runs; nope. Office usually notes the SREF (which has ticked up substantially too).

Noticed that the 12z NAM around here has 0.60+ around the CAE region which is what the SREF's higher tier has (which is expected b/c of the NAM members). The SREF mean is around 0.20. Again, influenced by the NAM.
Click to expand...

I know this is a different setup and didn’t the NAM perform better w/the early Dec. snow storm?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The ICON continues to like the NAVGEM to be rock solid as it has hardly budged in like 12 or so runs with its NNE movement of the surface low from Grand Bahama Island, thus meaning a larger effect on/near the SE coast than the GFS/Euro, which have a NE movement further from the coast. Another thing of note with the ICON: it has 850's staying below 0C through the entire storm for SAV-CHS meaning all snow there. That is in disagreement with the warmer NAM and RGEM at 850. Lastly, the precip on the 12Z ICON starts a few hours earlier than its prior runs though not as early as the 12Z RGEM.
 
GaWx said:
The ICON continues to like the NAVGEM to be rock solid as it has hardly budged in like 12 or so runs with its NNE movement of the surface low from Grand Bahama Island, thus meaning a larger effect on/near the SE coast than the GFS/Euro, which have a NE movement further from the coast. Another thing of note with the ICON: it has 850's staying below 0C through the entire storm for SAV-CHS meaning all snow there. That is in disagreement with the warmer NAM and RGEM at 850. Lastly, the precip on the 12Z ICON starts a few hours earlier than its prior runs though it as early as the 12Z RGEM.
Click to expand...

Yeah I knew the DWD-ICON wasn't that bad, I think it got unlucky w/ the threat several days ago
 
whatalife said:
I know this is a different setup and didn’t the NAM perform better w/the early Dec. snow storm?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeh, noone bought into the 8 inch totals it kept pumping out for AL and GA but it happened.
 
ukie... I'll take that
P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif


P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif
 
deltadog03 said:
Funny thing is, and I hope I'm not stepping on toes, but FFC doesn't mention anything about this. I get it, most models are dry, and that may ultimately happen. But not a peep? I know it won't effect ATL but damn
Click to expand...
Keep the Nam trending like this and other models follow suit with much less dry air like the Nam showed and more amped, who knows how far north or west this can go haha. If anything even remotely similar happens with Jan 2000 in ATL with the radar imagery Eric showed, the snow may be falling so heavily aloft that it moustens up the air for snow to possibly fall in ATL and Macon. We shall see. It sounds far-fetched but choas theory and mother nature can work miracles and crush jobs and be Wayyyy underpredicted.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top