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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Try this
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Is there a good reason to consider the GGEM over the RGEM through 48 hours? The start of the storm for coastal areas is much earlier on the RGEM and the precip just through 12Z on Wednesday for much of coastal GA/SC is already heavier than the GGEM gives for the entire storm! Any experts have an opinion on this?
 
GaWx said:
Is there a good reason to consider the GGEM over the RGEM through 48 hours? The start of the storm for coastal areas is much earlier on the RGEM and the precip just through 12Z on Wednesday for much of coastal GA/SC is already heavier than the GGEM gives for the entire storm! Any experts have an opinion on this?
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I would say in the short term of things, I would lean more on the RGEM. Better resolution for sure than the reg CMC.
 
deltadog03 said:
To me this is one of the more hard forecasts in the fact there is MANY moving parts here. NAM is showing what could happen if we get a quicker phase, CMC and GFS And EURO say well...it won't make it....I am afraid we won't know until at least tomorrow or Tuesday
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The CMC & GFS took a step in the direction of the NAM.... Even something as simple, seemingly insignificant, and as hard to forecast as a little extra diabatic heating under the mid-upper level vorticity max could be all it takes to tilt the vort a little more negative like what happened in Jan 2000 when an impressive shield of very intense precipitation and concomitant diabatic heating (which was poorly forecast btw) coupled w/ the vorticity max over Florida and south-central GA.


NEXRAD Radar Moody AFB, GA Jan 24 2000 12z.png

Jan 25 2000 0z 500 hpa.jpg
 
This is so complex we may not know for sure what will happen or the extent North and west of precipitation till hour 0. Models still wavering back and forth a bit.
 
0z ukmet was wet last night on precip panels even with sfc lp futher east. So bet 12z will be decent hit into atleast eastern piedmont carolinas.
 
The UKMET looks west of last nights run at hour 60. I thought I read above it was east.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CMC & GFS took a step in the direction of the NAM.... Even something as simple, seemingly insignificant, and as hard to forecast as a little extra diabatic heating under the mid-upper level vorticity max could be all it takes to tilt the vort a little more negative like what happened in Jan 2000 when an impressive shield of very intense precipitation and concomitant diabatic heating (which was poorly forecast btw) coupled w/ the vorticity max over Florida and south-central GA.


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View attachment 2543
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Ty for posting that. I thought we got snow out of that one
 
WPC legit says 700mb is more amped, leads to a crazy solution and the forecast uncertainty is high.

CAE is adding eastern midlands getting snow.
 
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